It's interesting to see both in this thread and the 2023 sales prediction thread how much the last year has changed expectations for the Xbox Series. Almost everyone expected the Series to outsell the Xbox One at the beginning of 2023, with some posters saying over 70/80m.

I'm now thinking 45-50m.

To put Xbox's 2023 sales into perspective here's what every console sold in their equivalent 12-month periods (Months 27-38).

Now it's probably going to finish a little short of Xbox One (54-57 million).
I still think Microsoft will get desperate enough for frequent discounts and maybe even price cuts to increase sales. Because without those, it's probably not even going to surpass 50 million.

I'm honestly thinking it might not even hit 50m.

Went with 40-45 million. I'm a bit pessimistic about Xbox hardware heading into the future. Series X managed to eke out a decent December with all the price drops of the Series X to 350 USD. They need to do a permanent price drop though.

Dropping the Series S to 249$ permanent, and the Series X to 399$ permanent, will do it I think. With those prices (and if Sony delay pricecuts till 2025) I can see the XBOX making more than 10M for this year and gaining some marketshare. In this case PS5 will probably have a ~20M year. (I expect it a little bit higher now)

This holiday in the us, and europe, there were Series S for 149$, and series X's for 349$.
It still came in 3rd in the US (in units of hardware sold though), its strongest market for sales (compaired to the other 2).

A full year of 399$, instead of just a month or two, in the year, could probably boost it a bit over this year.
However without, I suspect, it'll be down year on year (in 2024).

Playstation 5 pro, and Switch 2, are comeing in 2024.

I think Playstation 5, will have another 21-22m+ year.
Xbox without any perm. price cuts will probably be below 7m.

The expectation have lowered but i think it lowered too much. The most voted choice on the new poll is less than 40M and if Xbox does 7 mil in 2024 6 mil in 2025 that is enough to get to 40 with the remaining years in the lifetime to make sure it does.

I agree. I totally get why people think it won't hit the high 50s or even 50. But anything below 42-45 million would only be realistic if there's a cliff in 2025 or so and a new console in 2026 with the Series already discontinued then instead of staying in production as a budget option. 

Until early 2023, I thought it was very likely that Series X/S would surpass 60 million, becoming the second-best Xbox console by units sold. 

Now I think it will finish around 57 million, 48-52 million in a more pessimistic but not totally pessimistic estimate. 

Part of my prediction is based on the assumption that the Series won't be discontinued right as it is replaced. I think it will linger on in modest production for about another year or so. That gives it several years to sell remaining stock after it's replaced. I'm pretty sure Xbox One hardware sales dried up in 2022 since Microsoft confirmed that Xbox One had been discontinued in late 2020 as Series replaced it. 

Think the PS5 sales will be double of what ever XSX sales.