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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Shtinamin_ on 28 November 2023
zorg1000 said:

Shtinamin_ said:

All of those mentioned have done the following: made a game within the year (2022-2023), made DLC within the year, or are no longer making games (EPD11 with the dissolving of all the apps like Fire Emblem, Dragalia, Mario Kart Tour). The only developers that could make a game for the Switch maybe would be Sega with Mario & Sonic, EPD4, Retro Studios with Metroid prime 4, a Rhythm Heaven, and Nintendogs.

The developers are looking to the future, the Switch is old-school now.

I’m not disagreeing with your overall point that developers are focusing on Switch 2 rather than Switch but I don’t think your point about the currently announced titles is relevant considering a few months ago people were saying the same thing.

Before the June Direct, Pikmin 4 was the only game scheduled for the second half of this year, then the Direct happened and Detective Pikachu, Mario Wonder, WarioWare & Mario RPG were all announced to release in the next few months.

This has been a trend the entire generation, people complain about Nintendo having nothing coming up then they a Direct and announce a bunch of stuff releasing in the next 6 months.

I'm glad we understand.

I'm just explaining my thought process for myself, and yes I agree most people think that Nintendo has nothing coming up. I didn't say that there are no games coming up, for there a couple of developers that haven't produced anything regarding their usual releases. See bolded assumptions for viable games still possible for 2024 in the quote above. There are at least 5 AAA games that could be made, not even including the ones already announced like Luigi Mansion 2 Re-make, Princess Peach: Showtime!, and the Mario vs Donkey Kong re-make. And that's just for the beginning of 2024. And of course they will announce more games for the summer, and fall (most likely with the next console too). There could easily be 8 AAA games for the Switch alone for this summer, we'll never know until they announce them. But it sure is fun to make guestimations.

Those games (Detective Pikachu 2, Mario Wonder, WarioWare) were "due".
- 1-Up Studio, part of EPD10, usually comes out with a games every year or so (thats been the average since they existed), and their last game was Super Mario 3-D World + Bowser's Fury back in 2021 it seemed logical that they would announce a game near 2023 or 2024. And we got Super Mario Bros Wonder.
-Creatures Inc., part of GameFreak in EPD1, usually makes a game every 4 years. Their last one was Pokémon Scarlet and Violet in 2022, and before then was Detective Pikachu in 2018. Creatures Inc. doesn't get too involved with mainline Pokémon, so either a sequel to Detective Pikachu was approaching soon 2023-2024 or a new IP related to Pokémon.
-EPD7 develops the WarioWare, Rhythm Heaven, and Metroid series, and produced usually a game every 1.5 years. Ngl I wasnt expecting another WarioWare (Movie It!), I was expecting a new Rhythm Heaven. Maybe they are gonna develop one for summer? I like being optimistic.

Sorry for my rambling, I guess I have a lot on my mind.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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XtremeBG on 02 December 2023

Maybe some hope for those saying Switch will pass 160M:

Leaker shares Nintendo Switch Mini or Switch Pocket evidence, offers up release date

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 02 December 2023

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021

Global LT Showdown / Regional LT Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart / Quantity of Games

javi741 on 03 December 2023
XtremeBG said:

Maybe some hope for those saying Switch will pass 160M:

Leaker shares Nintendo Switch Mini or Switch Pocket evidence, offers up release date

Highly skeptical of this rumor. The rumor states the new Switch Mini would be coming out in February 2024 even though Nintendo already confirmed earlier this year that there would be no new hardware released until April 2024 at the earliest. Also I would feel like this releasing in February would give Nintendo too short of a window to market the new model since typically Nintendo likes to give a few months to market the new model before they release it, a February release date would only give Nintendo a month to announce and market it which is too short.

Also tbh, unless a rumor comes from a reputable gaming website like Eurogamer, Video game Chronicles, its difficult to take seriously.



Torpoleon on 03 December 2023

Can't say I'd be too surprised if we got something like a Switch Mini soon, considering we got Game Boy Micro after the DS released, New 2DS XL after the Switch released and Wii mini after Wii U released. We'll see what happens with this rumor.

I don't see a Switch Mini being what pushes the Switch to 160m total. I still feel like it would end off around 150m assuming the successor does indeed launch next year.



The_Liquid_Laser on 03 December 2023
XtremeBG said:

Maybe some hope for those saying Switch will pass 160M:

Leaker shares Nintendo Switch Mini or Switch Pocket evidence, offers up release date

"Maybe some hope", lol.  I'd say getting to 160M+ is still the most likely scenario.

If there is one constant since I've joined VGChartz it is that there is always a faction of people insisting that Switch sales will fall off a cliff.  On top of that they always insist that it is the most likely scenario.  And yet, Switch sales never do fall off a cliff.

"The Switch has to stop selling sometime."

Yes, it does, but it can stop selling after having moderate drops in sales each year.  Sales never have to fall off a cliff.  Plenty of leading consoles have not had their sales fall off a cliff even after a successor released.  We should not expect the Switch to do so either.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

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Shtinamin_ on 04 December 2023
The_Liquid_Laser said:
XtremeBG said:

Maybe some hope for those saying Switch will pass 160M:

Leaker shares Nintendo Switch Mini or Switch Pocket evidence, offers up release date

"Maybe some hope", lol.  I'd say getting to 160M+ is still the most likely scenario.

If there is one constant since I've joined VGChartz it is that there is always a faction of people insisting that Switch sales will fall off a cliff.  On top of that they always insist that it is the most likely scenario.  And yet, Switch sales never do fall off a cliff.

"The Switch has to stop selling sometime."

Yes, it does, but it can stop selling after having moderate drops in sales each year.  Sales never have to fall off a cliff.  Plenty of leading consoles have not had their sales fall off a cliff even after a successor released.  We should not expect the Switch to do so either.

I fully believe the Nintendo Switch will sell 162.36 million at the end of its life cycle (Production is capped at 162.36M). 

I agree sells do drop sometimes there are heavy drops. Switch dropped from 26.2M selling in it's 6th year to 18.63 its 7th year. An 8M drop. Nintendo expects the console to sell 15M by March 31, meaning a 3.6M drop.

Here are other examples of drops
PS2 had its "cliff drop" after it's 10th year (12.8M to 5.9M). But started to decrease sales since after its 3rd (with a bounce back in its 8th).

DS had its "cliff drop" in its 6th year (30M to 12.8M) and a second cliff in its 7th (12.8M to 2.8M).

GameBOY had its "cliff drop" in its 4th year (14M to 7.6M) with a huge bounce back from the GameBOY Color in its 10th year (9M to 27M), with a second cliff the following two years (27M to 16M & 16M to 4.5M).

PS4 had its "cliff drop" in its 8th year (20.02M to 9M) and its 9th year (9M to 2.52M).


Im just saying every console has had a cliff drop. I'd rather the Switch not fall off a cliff, because that means that
1. The console got a successor, destroying its chances to sell more
2. Oversaturation (which I dont think will happen soon).

I personally think the Switch wont drop so drastically (I think it will sell, 15M this year, 10M next, and 8M the following), but I am sensing a pattern that after the successor releases the older generation of consoles drops hard..



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

The_Liquid_Laser on 04 December 2023
Shtinamin_ said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

"Maybe some hope", lol.  I'd say getting to 160M+ is still the most likely scenario.

If there is one constant since I've joined VGChartz it is that there is always a faction of people insisting that Switch sales will fall off a cliff.  On top of that they always insist that it is the most likely scenario.  And yet, Switch sales never do fall off a cliff.

"The Switch has to stop selling sometime."

Yes, it does, but it can stop selling after having moderate drops in sales each year.  Sales never have to fall off a cliff.  Plenty of leading consoles have not had their sales fall off a cliff even after a successor released.  We should not expect the Switch to do so either.

I fully believe the Nintendo Switch will sell 162.36 million at the end of its life cycle (Production is capped at 162.36M). 

I agree sells do drop sometimes there are heavy drops. Switch dropped from 26.2M selling in it's 6th year to 18.63 its 7th year. An 8M drop. Nintendo expects the console to sell 15M by March 31, meaning a 3.6M drop.

Here are other examples of drops
PS2 had its "cliff drop" after it's 10th year (12.8M to 5.9M). But started to decrease sales since after its 3rd (with a bounce back in its 8th).

DS had its "cliff drop" in its 6th year (30M to 12.8M) and a second cliff in its 7th (12.8M to 2.8M).

GameBOY had its "cliff drop" in its 4th year (14M to 7.6M) with a huge bounce back from the GameBOY Color in its 10th year (9M to 27M), with a second cliff the following two years (27M to 16M & 16M to 4.5M).

PS4 had its "cliff drop" in its 8th year (20.02M to 9M) and its 9th year (9M to 2.52M).


Im just saying every console has had a cliff drop. I'd rather the Switch not fall off a cliff, because that means that
1. The console got a successor, destroying its chances to sell more
2. Oversaturation (which I dont think will happen soon).

I personally think the Switch wont drop so drastically (I think it will sell, 15M this year, 10M next, and 8M the following), but I am sensing a pattern that after the successor releases the older generation of consoles drops hard..

We are in agreement that Switch will sell over 160M.  Not all of those systems you're describing above had sales "fall off a cliff" though.  The ones where that actually applies are the DS and PS4.  You are saying the DS went from 30M to 2.8M in 2 years and the PS4 went from 20.02m to 2.52m in 2 years.  That does describe sales falling off a cliff.

Most systems don't have tail end sales like that though.  For example, in the FY ending March 1994 the SNES did have sales of 11.06M and the following FY sales plummeted to 4.41M, a 60% drop.  But the next FY sales were 5.78M (+31%) and then 3.3M (-43%).  The net effect of this is that for 3 years, sales were fairly stable in the 5.78M to 3.3M range.  Sales did not continue to plummet.  Likewise the 3DS had sales like this for it's last several fiscal years: 8.74M (in 2015), 6.79M, 7.27M, 6.41M, 2.56M, 0.69M (in 2020).  These sales numbers are not near sales in the 3DS's peak year of 13.96M, but the sales numbers are fairly stable with an overall mild downward trend.  

This is more what we should be expecting from the Switch.  I do not expect sales in 2025 to only be around 10% of what they are this year.  I expect a more gradual downward trend (and I think you do too).  The most likely scenario is Switch will pass the 160M mark, but some people still see this as far fetched.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

RolStoppable on 04 December 2023
Shtinamin_ said:

I fully believe the Nintendo Switch will sell 162.36 million at the end of its life cycle (Production is capped at 162.36M). 

This is oddly specific. What is this claim based on?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Renamed on 04 December 2023
javi741 said:
XtremeBG said:

Maybe some hope for those saying Switch will pass 160M:

Leaker shares Nintendo Switch Mini or Switch Pocket evidence, offers up release date

Highly skeptical of this rumor. The rumor states the new Switch Mini would be coming out in February 2024 even though Nintendo already confirmed earlier this year that there would be no new hardware released until April 2024 at the earliest. Also I would feel like this releasing in February would give Nintendo too short of a window to market the new model since typically Nintendo likes to give a few months to market the new model before they release it, a February release date would only give Nintendo a month to announce and market it which is too short.

Also tbh, unless a rumor comes from a reputable gaming website like Eurogamer, Video game Chronicles, its difficult to take seriously.

Reputable sites don't tend to report rumors.



To the privileged, equality feels like oppression. 

Shtinamin_ on 04 December 2023
RolStoppable said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I fully believe the Nintendo Switch will sell 162.36 million at the end of its life cycle (Production is capped at 162.36M). 

This is oddly specific. What is this claim based on?

                    ↓

Shtinamin_ said:


This is my synopsis for the Nintendo Switch's future (let me know what you think):

•2023-24 Q3 (Holiday season): Nintendo will sell 7.3 million*, this is due to the decrease in videogame sales around the globe (due to the economy "fallouts") but the decline wont be as great (an -11% decline) due to the great bundle deals, the discounts for the season, and the release of Super Mario Bros. Wonder. I truly believe that this game will boom with families that are trying to raise good natured and a good value family.
* as of October 2023 Nintendo has sold 0.868M, Switch need 6.4M more for November and December. (Japan as of Nov 26 is at 0.31M and hasn't started its holiday season yet).

•2023-24 Q4: We will see a moderate decline, somewhere along the line of (-8.8%) selling 2.9 million*, due to workers getting their paychecks New Year's Eve bonuses (?).
*edit: Switch will most likely sell near 2.3M

•2024-25 Q1: Nintendo wont announce the successor (the NG) until the September Nintendo Direct, but they will announce that their production of Nintendo Switch is starting to slow down due to slow consumer purchases. And proclaim that the Switch has sold 142.66 million, and set their goal for 10 million units. They sell at a rather lower decline of -18% at 3.2 million*. They hold a Direct showcasing their previously announced games and bring in some new ones as a last hoorah for the Nintendo Switch to help it in the summer.
*edit: Switch will sell nearing 3.5M, due to families with daughters for Princess Peach Showtime! and any other unannounced small AAA titles.

•2024-25 Q2: Late Summer hits and the sales are okay but the decline is feeling real, with a -29.3% decline selling 2.07 million*. And in the middle of September (9/12/24), they showcase the Nintendo NG at the beginning of the direct, and the system launcher is a new 3D Mario (Nintendo launches a console with either Mario or Link). They start setting up ads everywhere for it, try to escape their "curse" (since the N64 every other home console has been a flop, GCN, WiiU). 
*edt: Switch will sell 2.37M

•2024-25 Q3: Nintendo Switch is taking a toll but with the NG out* Nintendo lowers the Switch prices. V2 will be $149.99, OLED will be $179.99, and the Lite will be $99.99, and bundle deals will be $169.99, $199.99 and $119.99 respectively. This will be a good boost for Switch selling it near 5 million, an estimated -31% decline based on my 7.3 million this season. While the NG sells 6-8 million.
*edit: NG will have two versions, a cheaper LCD screen digital only option at $399.99, and a more expensive OLED screen with Switch-sized cartridge slot option for $449.99

•2024-25 Q4: Nintendo Switch will see another guestimated decline of -31% at 2 million*.
*edit: Switch will sell 1.5M

•2025-26 Q1: Help me if I'm wrong but President Furukawa stated that Nintendo will support the Switch with software until the end of the fiscal year of March 2025. If that fiscal year ends on that March, then the Switch will officially be considered a dead console, Nintendo will drop it with no more content support. The servers will still be up for another 10+ years maybe, but all new game will be released on the NG. Nintendo announced that they sold 154.93 million Nintendo Switch consoles. Sales will start to dramatically decline. With a drop of -38% selling 1.98 million.

•2025-26 Q2: NG is the main console now. Nintendo Switch still sell due to lowered prices, 7+ year catalog and Nintendo Switch Online will be rebranded as Nintendo Online to accommodate for the NG branding with Switch. Switch will sell at a -40% decline, 1.24 million*.
*edit: Switch will sell 1.47M

•2025-26 Q3: Switch is being forgotten but sells well at -51%, 2.45 million*.
*edit: Switch will sell at 2.65M

•2025-26 Q4: Switch sells at -68%, 0.64 million*
*edit: Switch will sell 0.71 million

•2026-27 Q1: Nintendo announces that the Nintendo Switch has sold 161.24 million earning the title of most sold video game console of all time (until another comes along of course). And declares that they have stopped production and shipped 162.36 million Nintendo Switch units.

I don't have any sources to confirm nor deny why 162.36M
This is all assumption and educated guesstimates based on quotes from Nintendo, rumors, and the information available to the public. I explain my reasoning I thing rather well, but I do like to see what are other people's predictions. :)
Why can't I make a prediction? Isn't that what we are doing on this forum, explaining how or why the Switch will or will not sell +160M.
I like seeing what other people predict, may I know what you are predicting?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.