The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Shtinamin_ said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

"Maybe some hope", lol.  I'd say getting to 160M+ is still the most likely scenario.

If there is one constant since I've joined VGChartz it is that there is always a faction of people insisting that Switch sales will fall off a cliff.  On top of that they always insist that it is the most likely scenario.  And yet, Switch sales never do fall off a cliff.

"The Switch has to stop selling sometime."

Yes, it does, but it can stop selling after having moderate drops in sales each year.  Sales never have to fall off a cliff.  Plenty of leading consoles have not had their sales fall off a cliff even after a successor released.  We should not expect the Switch to do so either.

I fully believe the Nintendo Switch will sell 162.36 million at the end of its life cycle (Production is capped at 162.36M). 

I agree sells do drop sometimes there are heavy drops. Switch dropped from 26.2M selling in it's 6th year to 18.63 its 7th year. An 8M drop. Nintendo expects the console to sell 15M by March 31, meaning a 3.6M drop.

Here are other examples of drops
PS2 had its "cliff drop" after it's 10th year (12.8M to 5.9M). But started to decrease sales since after its 3rd (with a bounce back in its 8th).

DS had its "cliff drop" in its 6th year (30M to 12.8M) and a second cliff in its 7th (12.8M to 2.8M).

GameBOY had its "cliff drop" in its 4th year (14M to 7.6M) with a huge bounce back from the GameBOY Color in its 10th year (9M to 27M), with a second cliff the following two years (27M to 16M & 16M to 4.5M).

PS4 had its "cliff drop" in its 8th year (20.02M to 9M) and its 9th year (9M to 2.52M).


Im just saying every console has had a cliff drop. I'd rather the Switch not fall off a cliff, because that means that
1. The console got a successor, destroying its chances to sell more
2. Oversaturation (which I dont think will happen soon).

I personally think the Switch wont drop so drastically (I think it will sell, 15M this year, 10M next, and 8M the following), but I am sensing a pattern that after the successor releases the older generation of consoles drops hard..

We are in agreement that Switch will sell over 160M.  Not all of those systems you're describing above had sales "fall off a cliff" though.  The ones where that actually applies are the DS and PS4.  You are saying the DS went from 30M to 2.8M in 2 years and the PS4 went from 20.02m to 2.52m in 2 years.  That does describe sales falling off a cliff.

Most systems don't have tail end sales like that though.  For example, in the FY ending March 1994 the SNES did have sales of 11.06M and the following FY sales plummeted to 4.41M, a 60% drop.  But the next FY sales were 5.78M (+31%) and then 3.3M (-43%).  The net effect of this is that for 3 years, sales were fairly stable in the 5.78M to 3.3M range.  Sales did not continue to plummet.  Likewise the 3DS had sales like this for it's last several fiscal years: 8.74M (in 2015), 6.79M, 7.27M, 6.41M, 2.56M, 0.69M (in 2020).  These sales numbers are not near sales in the 3DS's peak year of 13.96M, but the sales numbers are fairly stable with an overall mild downward trend.  

This is more what we should be expecting from the Switch.  I do not expect sales in 2025 to only be around 10% of what they are this year.  I expect a more gradual downward trend (and I think you do too).  The most likely scenario is Switch will pass the 160M mark, but some people still see this as far fetched.