The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

RolStoppable said:

Shtinamin_ said:

I fully believe the Nintendo Switch will sell 162.36 million at the end of its life cycle (Production is capped at 162.36M). 

This is oddly specific. What is this claim based on?

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Shtinamin_ said:

This is my synopsis for the Nintendo Switch's future (let me know what you think):

•2023-24 Q3 (Holiday season): Nintendo will sell 7.3 million*, this is due to the decrease in videogame sales around the globe (due to the economy "fallouts") but the decline wont be as great (an -11% decline) due to the great bundle deals, the discounts for the season, and the release of Super Mario Bros. Wonder. I truly believe that this game will boom with families that are trying to raise good natured and a good value family.
* as of October 2023 Nintendo has sold 0.868M, Switch need 6.4M more for November and December. (Japan as of Nov 26 is at 0.31M and hasn't started its holiday season yet).

•2023-24 Q4: We will see a moderate decline, somewhere along the line of (-8.8%) selling 2.9 million*, due to workers getting their paychecks New Year's Eve bonuses (?).
*edit: Switch will most likely sell near 2.3M

•2024-25 Q1: Nintendo wont announce the successor (the NG) until the September Nintendo Direct, but they will announce that their production of Nintendo Switch is starting to slow down due to slow consumer purchases. And proclaim that the Switch has sold 142.66 million, and set their goal for 10 million units. They sell at a rather lower decline of -18% at 3.2 million*. They hold a Direct showcasing their previously announced games and bring in some new ones as a last hoorah for the Nintendo Switch to help it in the summer.
*edit: Switch will sell nearing 3.5M, due to families with daughters for Princess Peach Showtime! and any other unannounced small AAA titles.

•2024-25 Q2: Late Summer hits and the sales are okay but the decline is feeling real, with a -29.3% decline selling 2.07 million*. And in the middle of September (9/12/24), they showcase the Nintendo NG at the beginning of the direct, and the system launcher is a new 3D Mario (Nintendo launches a console with either Mario or Link). They start setting up ads everywhere for it, try to escape their "curse" (since the N64 every other home console has been a flop, GCN, WiiU). 
*edt: Switch will sell 2.37M

•2024-25 Q3: Nintendo Switch is taking a toll but with the NG out* Nintendo lowers the Switch prices. V2 will be $149.99, OLED will be $179.99, and the Lite will be $99.99, and bundle deals will be $169.99, $199.99 and $119.99 respectively. This will be a good boost for Switch selling it near 5 million, an estimated -31% decline based on my 7.3 million this season. While the NG sells 6-8 million.
*edit: NG will have two versions, a cheaper LCD screen digital only option at $399.99, and a more expensive OLED screen with Switch-sized cartridge slot option for $449.99

•2024-25 Q4: Nintendo Switch will see another guestimated decline of -31% at 2 million*.
*edit: Switch will sell 1.5M

•2025-26 Q1: Help me if I'm wrong but President Furukawa stated that Nintendo will support the Switch with software until the end of the fiscal year of March 2025. If that fiscal year ends on that March, then the Switch will officially be considered a dead console, Nintendo will drop it with no more content support. The servers will still be up for another 10+ years maybe, but all new game will be released on the NG. Nintendo announced that they sold 154.93 million Nintendo Switch consoles. Sales will start to dramatically decline. With a drop of -38% selling 1.98 million.

•2025-26 Q2: NG is the main console now. Nintendo Switch still sell due to lowered prices, 7+ year catalog and Nintendo Switch Online will be rebranded as Nintendo Online to accommodate for the NG branding with Switch. Switch will sell at a -40% decline, 1.24 million*.
*edit: Switch will sell 1.47M

•2025-26 Q3: Switch is being forgotten but sells well at -51%, 2.45 million*.
*edit: Switch will sell at 2.65M

•2025-26 Q4: Switch sells at -68%, 0.64 million*
*edit: Switch will sell 0.71 million

•2026-27 Q1: Nintendo announces that the Nintendo Switch has sold 161.24 million earning the title of most sold video game console of all time (until another comes along of course). And declares that they have stopped production and shipped 162.36 million Nintendo Switch units.

I don't have any sources to confirm nor deny why 162.36M
This is all assumption and educated guesstimates based on quotes from Nintendo, rumors, and the information available to the public. I explain my reasoning I thing rather well, but I do like to see what are other people's predictions. :)
Why can't I make a prediction? Isn't that what we are doing on this forum, explaining how or why the Switch will or will not sell +160M.
I like seeing what other people predict, may I know what you are predicting?