If they REALLY want to move extra hardware, they should have made these bundles w/ the OLED units instead of the base ones.

DS was a spinter, PS2 a Marathon runner. Switch is something like mid-distance runner from the looks of it.

I actually think Switch is a marathon runner too.  It's just a better marathon runner than PS2.  If you look at how Switch is selling in Japan, it's going to keep selling well there for several more years.

Except that PS2 was able to keep selling cuz it was like $99 while PS3 was $600. Switch hybrids are still sitting at $300/$350 while Switch 2 is probably gonna be $350-$400. Assuming backwards compatibility which should be a given, Switch is gonna die off pretty dang quickly even in Japan unless Nintendo drops all models down by like $100 to differentiate it as the cheap old option to pick up on a whim versus the new full price next gen system. And while they are finally doing bundles soon at same price as unbundled systems, and that may be the first step to an eventual price cut next year, I don't think there is any way they price cut more than $50, in which case Switch sales gonna plummet as soon as next gen launches.

Switch has unbelievable sales for how old it is, but without price cuts it's sales trajectory will completely flatten when next gen launches. No way around that without forgoing backwards compatibility next gen which would be a horrible decision for the future, or doing big price cuts which the market conditions simply don't warrant. Nintendo's goal when Switch 2 launches is going to be selling that system as fast as possible, they are going to have no interest in pushing the Switch at that point, and given the Switch should still have a similar price point there simply won't be a market for it anymore. Nintendo would either need to make a huge mistake with next gen (like unaffordable price >$400 or no backwards compatibility, or cut the Switch retail price down to cost in order to drop ~$100 from it) and there is simply no business reason for them to do those things.

PS2 kept selling for several reasons, but the biggest one is that it expanded into new markets.  That is where most of the PS2's tail end sales come from.  These markets first saw the PS2 several years later than most other places and the console had it's own life there for 5-7 years.

What Japan sales tell us is that Switch is doing the same thing.  While Switch sales are gradually decreasing in most of the world, that really isn't happening in Japan.  Scalpers are exporting the systems which means the Switch is reaching new markets via scalpers.  People in these other markets will still be buying the Switch for years.

You should not expect the Switch to die off quickly in Japan when the Switch 2 releases.

nah. all my points still hold. Yes PS2 also sold into new markets, but those markets already exist now, so not the same thing at all. And some sales may be going to nearby countries, but Switch is still very strong in Japan (it's not like the PS5 where it's clear a ton of those sales are going elsewhere as Japanese software sales are like nonexistent no matter how much PS5 hardware gets sold in Japan, while Switch software has actually gone up to match the increased demand from Japanese gamers). And whatever Japanese sales are going elsewhere, its not like these are new markets, its just that the yen is weak so its cheap to buy the hardware from japan now. And it's nothing like the $99 PS2 that kept selling when people didn't want to buy a $600 PS3. Very very different situation. People aren't going to be buying a $300 Switch when a slightly more expensive next gen Switch is available.

Switch is gonna die off as soon as Switch 2 comes unless Nintendo prices it to have a different, much lower, market than the Switch 2, meaning at least a $100 price cut. Switch simply isn't going to compete with Switch 2 at similar price points, this ain't a $99 vs $600 situation like with the PS2. Lite may keep selling for a while, but the Switch models priced near Switch 2 won't, there simply won't be a market for them. It really has nothing in common with the PS2 situation at all. Now if Nintendo knocks the Switch from $300 down to $99, then we will have a situation similar to PS2 and Switch would keep selling for years at that price, but obviously that isn't happening.

This post is based on a whole lot of assumptions.  One of these assumptions is wrong and the rest we don't know.

"Yes PS2 also sold into new markets, but those markets already exist now" - This is wrong.  China is mostly a gigantic untapped market still, and that is where most scalped consoles are going.

The rest of your post assumes you know:
1) The launch price of the Switch 2.  
2) The launch price of the Switch 1, when the Switch 2 releases.
3) The approximate launch date of the Switch 2.
4) Nintendo's behavior between now and the Switch 2's release.

You don't know what the price of Switch 1 vs. Switch 2 will be, nor do you know when that face-off will happen.  Instead of what you don't know, why not base your arguments upon what we do know?  We know Japan sales are higher than they should be due to exporting Switches.  We also know that Nintendo is going to start bundling games in with the Switch soon.  This is usually the first step to stimulate sales before an actual price cut.  We also know that Switch sales, even outside of Japan, are still healthy for a system in it's 7th year on the market.

All actual signs point to Switch continuing to have healthy sales for several more years.  All of the speculation that Switch sales are going to die off when the Switch 2 releases is really the same damn "cliff" nonsense that has been going on since 2017.  People keep expecting the Switch to die off quickly, and it never does.  In reality, it's a huge money maker for Nintendo and they are going to milk it for as long as they can.

Yes, it's still "cliff"-talk, amazing after all these very successful years of the Switch! Even if the price difference should be only $50 between Switch OLED and Switch 2, it would mean that the standard Switch will be $100 cheaper than Switch 2 and right there at Slownenberg you have your $100 price difference. It will even come with a game for free, so the actual difference will be $160 (plus 3 month of free Nintendo Online membership). Maybe, Nintendo will discontinue the standard model but still $50 price difference (without a bundled game) is still money for the people who buy late in consoles lifecycle. People buying late are cost sensitive, otherwise, they would have bought a Switch already a long time ago. So for them, $50 do matter. The cheap alternative, the Switch Lite, was never that popular because it doesn't give you the full Switch experience. When you know that you could play also on the TV with a Switch, you don't wanna miss it, even if you play in handheld mode most of the time.

We also shouldn't forget that every year there are new kids that come into an age were they want to play with a Switch. These new kids will demand a Switch 2 but many price sensitive parents will say, no no, the old Switch will just do it for you. The kid will still be happy as there are tons of great games for this console to play.

Also, thinking on places were Nintendo isn't present, like whole Latin America, there's sales potential for Switch 1. Currently, the Switch is still way too expensive in those places because someone has to import those consoles and these importers want to earn money of course. But once the Switch 2 is out, the Switch 1 will also be less expensive in those places and finally more people there can afford one.

Only if they drop the price. So that's the whole deal. If Nintendo does price cuts Switch can keep selling some for years. But if Nintendo doesn't bother dropping the price Switch sales are gonna drop off as soon as next gen starts so Nintendo will very quickly move over production to focus almost entirely on Switch 2. Lite could still be picking up some sales without a price cut, but that's already the least popular model so it's also the weakest model for continuing sales.

Nintendo can either drop prices to like $150/$200/$250 once Switch 2 is out so they can keep selling the Switch to a different market segment than Switch 2, or they can just not bother dropping the price and cut off production and focus everything on moving people over to Switch 2 with backward compatibility. It's really up to them, whether their business strategy is to have two markets going at once, a cheap Switch alongside Switch 2, or focus on a single market trying to get everyone buying the new system by saying it plays Switch games plus the next generation of games for barely higher cost than a hybrid Switch.