The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Slownenberg said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

PS2 kept selling for several reasons, but the biggest one is that it expanded into new markets.  That is where most of the PS2's tail end sales come from.  These markets first saw the PS2 several years later than most other places and the console had it's own life there for 5-7 years.

What Japan sales tell us is that Switch is doing the same thing.  While Switch sales are gradually decreasing in most of the world, that really isn't happening in Japan.  Scalpers are exporting the systems which means the Switch is reaching new markets via scalpers.  People in these other markets will still be buying the Switch for years.

You should not expect the Switch to die off quickly in Japan when the Switch 2 releases.

nah. all my points still hold. Yes PS2 also sold into new markets, but those markets already exist now, so not the same thing at all. And some sales may be going to nearby countries, but Switch is still very strong in Japan (it's not like the PS5 where it's clear a ton of those sales are going elsewhere as Japanese software sales are like nonexistent no matter how much PS5 hardware gets sold in Japan, while Switch software has actually gone up to match the increased demand from Japanese gamers). And whatever Japanese sales are going elsewhere, its not like these are new markets, its just that the yen is weak so its cheap to buy the hardware from japan now. And it's nothing like the $99 PS2 that kept selling when people didn't want to buy a $600 PS3. Very very different situation. People aren't going to be buying a $300 Switch when a slightly more expensive next gen Switch is available.

Switch is gonna die off as soon as Switch 2 comes unless Nintendo prices it to have a different, much lower, market than the Switch 2, meaning at least a $100 price cut. Switch simply isn't going to compete with Switch 2 at similar price points, this ain't a $99 vs $600 situation like with the PS2. Lite may keep selling for a while, but the Switch models priced near Switch 2 won't, there simply won't be a market for them. It really has nothing in common with the PS2 situation at all. Now if Nintendo knocks the Switch from $300 down to $99, then we will have a situation similar to PS2 and Switch would keep selling for years at that price, but obviously that isn't happening.

This post is based on a whole lot of assumptions.  One of these assumptions is wrong and the rest we don't know.

"Yes PS2 also sold into new markets, but those markets already exist now" - This is wrong.  China is mostly a gigantic untapped market still, and that is where most scalped consoles are going.

The rest of your post assumes you know:
1) The launch price of the Switch 2.  
2) The launch price of the Switch 1, when the Switch 2 releases.
3) The approximate launch date of the Switch 2.
4) Nintendo's behavior between now and the Switch 2's release.

You don't know what the price of Switch 1 vs. Switch 2 will be, nor do you know when that face-off will happen.  Instead of what you don't know, why not base your arguments upon what we do know?  We know Japan sales are higher than they should be due to exporting Switches.  We also know that Nintendo is going to start bundling games in with the Switch soon.  This is usually the first step to stimulate sales before an actual price cut.  We also know that Switch sales, even outside of Japan, are still healthy for a system in it's 7th year on the market.

All actual signs point to Switch continuing to have healthy sales for several more years.  All of the speculation that Switch sales are going to die off when the Switch 2 releases is really the same damn "cliff" nonsense that has been going on since 2017.  People keep expecting the Switch to die off quickly, and it never does.  In reality, it's a huge money maker for Nintendo and they are going to milk it for as long as they can.