The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Slownenberg said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

I actually think Switch is a marathon runner too.  It's just a better marathon runner than PS2.  If you look at how Switch is selling in Japan, it's going to keep selling well there for several more years.

Except that PS2 was able to keep selling cuz it was like $99 while PS3 was $600. Switch hybrids are still sitting at $300/$350 while Switch 2 is probably gonna be $350-$400. Assuming backwards compatibility which should be a given, Switch is gonna die off pretty dang quickly even in Japan unless Nintendo drops all models down by like $100 to differentiate it as the cheap old option to pick up on a whim versus the new full price next gen system. And while they are finally doing bundles soon at same price as unbundled systems, and that may be the first step to an eventual price cut next year, I don't think there is any way they price cut more than $50, in which case Switch sales gonna plummet as soon as next gen launches.

Switch has unbelievable sales for how old it is, but without price cuts it's sales trajectory will completely flatten when next gen launches. No way around that without forgoing backwards compatibility next gen which would be a horrible decision for the future, or doing big price cuts which the market conditions simply don't warrant. Nintendo's goal when Switch 2 launches is going to be selling that system as fast as possible, they are going to have no interest in pushing the Switch at that point, and given the Switch should still have a similar price point there simply won't be a market for it anymore. Nintendo would either need to make a huge mistake with next gen (like unaffordable price >$400 or no backwards compatibility, or cut the Switch retail price down to cost in order to drop ~$100 from it) and there is simply no business reason for them to do those things.

PS2 kept selling for several reasons, but the biggest one is that it expanded into new markets.  That is where most of the PS2's tail end sales come from.  These markets first saw the PS2 several years later than most other places and the console had it's own life there for 5-7 years.

What Japan sales tell us is that Switch is doing the same thing.  While Switch sales are gradually decreasing in most of the world, that really isn't happening in Japan.  Scalpers are exporting the systems which means the Switch is reaching new markets via scalpers.  People in these other markets will still be buying the Switch for years.

You should not expect the Switch to die off quickly in Japan when the Switch 2 releases.