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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

XtremeBG said:
eleazar0425 said:

I love how you would rather make up this elaborate story about me being a clone account than accept that more than one person could disagree with you.

It seems to me here than only you have something against me, phenomajp13. Since only you for more than 6 years that I am active here, accuse and argue with me about intentions, bias and behaviors, dishonesty and etc. while you are the only person this description fits perfectly. And you simply ignore all of my points and just say " no, it's not me ". Why ? Cuz it's the truth and you can't give a possible explanation about the points I made about that because it's simply you all along and there is no way to hide the truth. Here is even another point for you. You and your other account (phenomajp) are the only ones here that just SPAM the whole thread, with things that are not about what the thread is about - Switch. (well me included, cuz I answer every post from you phenomajp, but it's only because it's concerning me personal, since you talk shit about me), but you are the one who is doing the spam posts, posts that are not pointed to the topic itself - Switch, but rather for intentions, bias and behaviors, dishonesty and etc. Now I will let moderators decide if both of your known accounts deserve bans. There is something called writing patterns, and that you can't hide, alongside all the other points I made about that of course. (also I don't care how many people disagree with me, I have dozens of polls already, where many voted different than me, and have done so many posts, that there were many people disagreed with me about different points, it's natural, not everyone can agree with you on this earth, and honestly there is no need for everyone to agrees with you, but here it's not about that, it simply dirty tactics to prove a point - that I am dishonest, and by doing another account and supporting, agreeing and thanking to yourself you accomplish nothing, only more reasons for ban).

Having a similar tone or structure doesn’t mean we’re the same person. We just happen to share opinions or writing habits, which is common on the internet, especially in niche communities. Instead of speculating, maybe focus on the argument instead of who's making it. If two users disagree with you, maybe the disagreement itself is worth examining. I'm not sure is there's any admin around but we can stop this nonsense quickly because an admin should be able to tell if I'm a clone account or not by seeing my login history, ip addresses and behavior patterns in the site. 



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XtremeBG said:
Phenomajp13 said:

So I didn't talk shit about you and you got heated over a thumbs up button. Good chat!

Yea only a few hundred times by now since 2023..

You are ignoring what I am telling you.. If it was just for the button you wouldn't include "alongside your predictions" as an answer to my answer to you about the button post. It's so obvious its personal and was all just provocation to start argue again. Everyone will agree to this after following the whole thing couple of posts back. You are the one that got heated, since if you werent, you wouldn't even make that a question, you would just ignore it. But you didn't.

Drop it.

eleazar0425 said:
XtremeBG said:

You simply visit the site for a long time, and use all the accounts. The date of creation does not matter at all and is not connected to anything. I can create one account in 2009, one in 2012, one in 2015, one in 2018, one in 2022, and one in 2025 and can enter through every and write from every of them. So stop the bullshit. The writing pattern is also the same, you write as yourself phenomajp, the words you are using, the sentences you make, the behaviour you have. Stop lie everyone. And again talk in plural form just like you did in the past. Talk from everyone. Don't you understand already that you are alone in this world ? No one is with you .. Oops sorry, my mistake, your alternative accounts are with you . Another thing, how come you all of a sudden that haven't exchanged posts with me became so sure about me wanting the Switch to never get a title ? This is so phenomajp's... You aren't even hiding .. Here is another example, I am active in this forum for more than 6 years now, and till now I've been only attacked in such a way by you phenomajp, not anyone else. So what are the chances after more than 6 years, and after a period of constant accusations from you, now some other user with 20 posts to be jumping on me the same way you does phenomajp ? Zero! That's you. How big coincidence has to be, in that big time period no one else would beef with me, but only you, and now some random nobody jumping on me just 2 days after our last argument ? What are the chances ? So again, stop the bullshit, I know it's you, and everyone who put little time to read your posts will also reach to the same conclusion. And by the way, I've written very good post to you in that screenshot I upload in my previous post, go take a look at it again, and read it, it's the quoted part. I forgot I did such a good post about you. When I told you no one supports you and likes you, you answered from your alt. account, to prove me that there is one who is on your side (which is essentially you) and even thanking to yourself.

About the Switch .. even If you were right, me wanting so bad or not does not change anything. So why bother ? Why do you care and what difference does that make to you ? If I want this I can't and won't change the future or the facts that will happen with words or texting. So what's the point ? If it happens I can't do anything. And if it does not, my words does not contribute for that.

Also why do you ignore what I wrote ? I simply took the more likely outcome, you obviously didn't understand my initial post about that, cuz it was about the performance Switch may have from 2027 and after that, and only in the case Nintendo actually decides to leave it on the market, which is very far from sure to begin with. How is your example fair (since you say mine isn't) when you give me years of consoles selling 8M+ and 6M+ where Switch's current year will be below that, let alone 2027, the year for which my point was in the post ??? Also if you don't like my comparison do one yourself, don't start to attack, to spin the things in some sick way only to work in your favor to hate on me. The example was simply about 2 or 3 of the very last years of consoles, since the post was about those last 2-3 years of the Switch IF NINTENDO DECIDES for those to be the years from 2027 to 2029/2030. Which can very likely be not the case and simply discontinue it after 2026 ends. So how you are expecting me to put 5 years of 3DS against 2 or 3 years at max for the Switch ?? Maybe you want every possible example and scenario to fit your dream of Switch reaching and breaking 160M, not me wanting the opposite as you say (where in reality I am simply realist and lay down the most likely scenario in my opinion, again in the case of Nintendo deciding to leave it till 2029/2030).

And why throw PS2 in the mix ? If Switch was following PS2 legs it wouldn't drop from 16 to 12 to around 5M this year. Why even including it in there ? This was discussion sometime in 2023 and 2024, it's late for that at this point, cuz if Switch was going after PS2 legs, first it wouldn't drop so much in such little time, and second it wouldn't be at the level the PS2 was in it's very last year where it did around 4M. Switch is already cratering, at a pace PS2 never did. Going from 12M to not more than 5M this year. So no, it doesn't fit the example. And with the price hike, I can guarantee you Switch won't magically continue to sell 5M each year till 2030 or even close, to be okay to compare it to PS2's last years. It's already at 60k per week, and in January it was at more than double of that, and we are yet to see the real baseline the Switch will settle at after the launch month of Switch 2.

Also my point was simply about the people who say that it's like guarantee the Switch to pass 160M if it's left on the market for few more years, and all I am saying is that no, some 2-3 more years of sales level around 5-10k per week won't make much, it can make 1.5M at best. So if it hasn't reached at least 158.5M by end of 2026, I don't see 2-3 years more on the market to help it pass 160M. If it does then sure, no doubt. And if somehow it's selling 20k or something like that for those 2-3 years, then sure, it can happen, but I can't see it doing that much in 2027 and after, when it's at ~60k now, let alone how much will continue to drop this and next year.

I love how you would rather make up this elaborate story about me being a clone account than accept that more than one person could disagree with you.

And it's time to stop.  This thread is getting a lot of reports. 

Xtreme you're ruining your own thread. If this doesn't stop I'm locking it.

Elea - stop it. You two don't need to interact. It's causing problems for the users.



You are bound to love Earthbound.

eleazar0425 said:

Having a similar tone or structure doesn’t mean we’re the same person. We just happen to share opinions or writing habits, which is common on the internet, especially in niche communities. Instead of speculating, maybe focus on the argument instead of who's making it. If two users disagree with you, maybe the disagreement itself is worth examining. I'm not sure is there's any admin around but we can stop this nonsense quickly because an admin should be able to tell if I'm a clone account or not by seeing my login history, ip addresses and behavior patterns in the site.

It's only one really - you, phenomajp. For more than 6 years, it always been you. How will you explain this ? No it's not worthing examining since it's you for 6 years, that is the prove. No one else thinks like you,phenomajp. Why no one for more than 6 years entered into argument with me about that bullshit you are entering? How no one have similar tone and structure out of all users here and only you have ? How convenient. Only you share the opinion, and writing habits, no one other. What coincidence. About login history and IP, this can be easily jumped through. You can have computer on your work, second house/apartment, or simply girlfriend with different home, and write from there, different IP, different MAC, different device, it's simple.

@Bandorr I wrote you a message. I am not the one who needs to stop (since I simply defend my self, there is no way he is talking shit about me and I ignore it, he is the one you need to stop, or simply ban, here is not a place for accusations, but for talking about sales and games) or ruining the thread, since I start nothing, but phenomajp, from both of his accounts (elea is his), he is the one who is always starting arguments, accusing and attacking. Everyone can tell you, and of course you can see it for yourself, going historically back through the pages, I make post about Switch, he after almost every of the posts I made about the Switch then jumps and accuse me of dishonesty, behaviours and etc. I am simply answering, cuz he talks bullshits about me everytime. And as you can follow the conversation, eleazar is his alt. account. I have made a lot of points above in my posts. Also to deal with all of that, there is no need to lock the thread, (which is not mine by the way), you can simply ban phenomajp once and for all and we are done. Several other users also has problem with him too, not only me. I've written with them PMs, and they confirmed this to me, and some of them even on the forum itself before, when they too got accussed with bullshit from him. You get reports from many users because this is a SPAM! and this SPAM everyone can tell you is always provoked from phenomajp, and the thread becomes me vs him about intentions, behaviours, dishonesty and all of that bullshit, rather than the console sales of Switch. That is your root of the problem. He turned on from eleazar account only a few posts back, this last SPAM series started and was presented all the way till the very end now, till the last 3-4 posts, from phenomajp account again where he changed to his elelazar acccount. Simply look back the post history.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 07 August 2025

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

Bandorr said:

Drop it.

And it's time to stop. This thread is getting a lot of reports. 

Xtreme you're ruining your own thread. If this doesn't stop I'm locking it.

Elea - stop it. You two don't need to interact. It's causing problems for the users.

This is RolStoppable's thread no xtremebg's. The solution should not be locking the thread but having the three users continue their off-topic discussion somewhere else. They can make a new thread. 



Chicho said:
Bandorr said:

Drop it.

And it's time to stop. This thread is getting a lot of reports. 

Xtreme you're ruining your own thread. If this doesn't stop I'm locking it.

Elea - stop it. You two don't need to interact. It's causing problems for the users.

This is RolStoppable's thread no xtremebg's. The solution should not be locking the thread but having the three users continue their off-topic discussion somewhere else. They can make a new thread. 

Yes, and as such I messaged Rol to see what they want to do about the thread.  The thread could just as easily locked and re-created. 

Or the off topic people could be removed as well.  But something needs to change, we shall see what.

* I've received an answer.  The thread will stay open.  Phenom still stay gone - permanently.

If more people become the problem, more people will be possibly removed.

Last edited by Bandorr - on 08 August 2025

You are bound to love Earthbound.

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This quarterly shipments chart was posted by shadow link. 

  

What do we think Nintendo will ship the next three quarters? what will they ship next fiscal year? It seems to me it should be over 155 by the end of the fiscal year and firmly ahead of the DS.  



Chicho said:

This quarterly shipments chart was posted by shadow link. 

  

What do we think Nintendo will ship the next three quarters? what will they ship next fiscal year? It seems to me it should be over 155 by the end of the fiscal year and firmly ahead of the DS.  

Nintendo forecasted it would ship 4.5 million for the Switch for the current fiscal year. If they reach their target it will be at 156.62 million shipped. Which would put it 3.38 million away from 160 million.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

I am thinking something like around 800k this quarter around 2M the holiday one and something like 600k for Q4. Making around the forecast of 4.5M. And only PS2 remain to beat.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 07 August 2025

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

If we assume Nintendo achieve the 4.5M forecast, hit 156.62M units by March 2026 and forecast a 50% drop for the next fiscal year, the Switch would be at 158.87M by March 2027. Another 50% drop for the next fiscal year and the Nintendo would be exaclty at 159.995M -> 160M on March 2028. Funny how the 160M mark depends all on the Switch getting exactly half the drop of the last fiscal year across 2 years.

If we were to play around with these numbers, how would you place the shipments numbers across the months to get the Switch to be at 160M mark by March 2028?

March 2026-> total: 156.56M
April 2026 to June 2026 ->_________ -> total:
July 2026 to Sept. 2026 ->_________ -> total:
Oct. 2026 to Dec. 2026 ->_________ -> total:
Jan 2027 to March 2027 ->_________ -> total: 158.87M
April 2027 to June 2027 ->_________ -> total:
July 2027 to Sept. 2027 ->_________ -> total:
Oct. 2027 to Dec. 2027 ->_________ -> total:
Jan 2027 to March 2027 ->_________-> total: 159.995M -> 160M

Last edited by CourageTCD - on 08 August 2025


Question if i may, what indication is there that the switch will/can sell 2 mill units in the holidays season when switch2 will be the next big thing(or actually already is)

Thats a BIG holiday sales.