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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Pyro as Bill said:

If delay rumours are true and Switch 2 was supposed to be out by now or this holiday then it's also possible there's a bunch of gimped AAA Switch 2 games waiting in the wings that should be extending Switch's lifecycle.

Delay rumors? Are there rumors of the system being again? Seeing how strong the Switch consistently performs in Japan (and even USA/EU), can't say this would surprise me, especially with Pokémon Legends Z/A supposedly only releasing for NSW (and not NSW2)...though Pokémon B&W2 did release exclusively on NDS an entire year after 3DS released, unless I'm misremembering? In which case, it wouldn't be entirely unprecedented for Z/A to release exclusively on the old system.



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curl-6 said:

Yeah if the Switch has a significant future beyond its replacement, it's as a budget product to ensure kids from low income families are still growing up with Nintendo's IPs even if their parents can't afford a Switch 2.

To that end, I expect the OLED will get the axe in relatively short order, (as the premium slot will be filled by the successor) while the Lite, maybe the base, and maybe a new Wii Mini/New 2DS type model are kept around until the Switch 2 Lite can arrive to fill that lower priced niche.

Yeah it'll be interesting to see what actions, if any, Nintendo takes with the Switch. Maybe they just cut production down to barely anything and let whatever small number are still gonna buy it at $200/$300/$350 prices keep buying until those numbers are so small there is no point. Or yeah they could either discontinue the original and drop the OLED to $300 so it can limp along with some sales or discontinue the OLEd and let the original limp along with barely any sales. I think Lite will be the only one selling much at all because it's the budget model, but even it won't be selling much unless they cut the price by $50 to really make it an impulse buy.

I don't see a new model coming out, cuz there would be no point unless its cheaper than the Lite the the Lite is already small cheap model, I don't see them going with a super small model.

Whatever they do, unless they are cutting the price they are effectively killing off the Switch on pricing once next gen launches. I'd like to at least see the Lite cut to $150 so it becomes a budget system kids can ask their parents for and maybe Switch can manage to eek past the DS sales number. If Nintendo does nothing I think Switch will fall just short of the DS.

Side question: are the vgchartz Switch numbers even updating? lol. I feel like it's been at 142m forever, despite Switch selling over half a million a month. Weren't Nintendo's numbers 143+ at the mid-year point? I know Nintendo releases shipment numbers and not sell-through in the quarterly reports, but still why is vgchartz estimate still at 142? Seems like through August it should at least be at 143m, I'd guess real-time sales are probably more like 144m by now. Maybe I'm crazy, just feels like vgchartz has barely moved the lifetime numbers for the past like half year.



They need to show some new software or a late lifecycle revision like New 3DS. I'm starting to doubt Nintendo's target of 154.82 by March. I think it could be as low as 152.



The Nintendo Switch will sell 146mil LTD. Nintendo will completely end all production by next month b/c they need to use all resources in producing NSW2. M&L Brothership and DKCRHD will be canned for NSW and ported to NSW2 in 8k resolution (via blowing up the screen, no AI upscaling b/c Nintendo is "too good" for AI). NSW2 will launch at $1,000 on December 25th, 2024, in order to celebrate Christmas. The launch title will be Animal Crossing New Horizons Remaster, Super Mario Odyssey Remaster, F-Zero (like what they did with Mario All Stars on the Wii), and The Legend of Zelda: Scars of the Heart (a modded version of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom which features Kratos, Spiderman, Astro Bot, and Master Chief. This'll be the closest thing we get to Smash Bros until 2028). Nintendo will also launch a creator program which strictly prohibits any online discourse, advertisement, or gameplay of Nintendo products from prior to NSW2. Nintendo will then drop out of the console market and end all game development starting on January 31st, 2025. This is b/c the NSW2 only will have sold 10mil units in its first month, which is far below Nintedno's expectation of 100mil in its first month. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom will then be ported to Xbox One, PS4, PS3, PS2, and Nintendo 3DS. They will then resume production of NSW units, hoping to save their business, and the NSW will start selling like hot-cakes. Pent up demand will cause 28mil NSW to sell during F'26, making NSW the all-time greatest selling video game system ever.

All you naysayers will be proven wrong, and I correct. NSW will become the best selling system ever!!



Slownenberg said:

Side question: are the vgchartz Switch numbers even updating? lol. I feel like it's been at 142m forever, despite Switch selling over half a million a month. Weren't Nintendo's numbers 143+ at the mid-year point? I know Nintendo releases shipment numbers and not sell-through in the quarterly reports, but still why is vgchartz estimate still at 142? Seems like through August it should at least be at 143m, I'd guess real-time sales are probably more like 144m by now. Maybe I'm crazy, just feels like vgchartz has barely moved the lifetime numbers for the past like half year.

Switch shipped 143.42M by end of june. However sold until then were around 141.5M. July and August sold about 650k which makes it almost 143M by now. You may see 142M a lot, because when you see 141.5M or 142.7M in your mind it's still 142M. Also there are adjustments happening often, and lately they were adjusted down. This is also something .. With the new September data, Switch should finally break the 143M mark and reach somewhere around 143.5M



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Slownenberg said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah if the Switch has a significant future beyond its replacement, it's as a budget product to ensure kids from low income families are still growing up with Nintendo's IPs even if their parents can't afford a Switch 2.

To that end, I expect the OLED will get the axe in relatively short order, (as the premium slot will be filled by the successor) while the Lite, maybe the base, and maybe a new Wii Mini/New 2DS type model are kept around until the Switch 2 Lite can arrive to fill that lower priced niche.

Side question: are the vgchartz Switch numbers even updating? lol. I feel like it's been at 142m forever, despite Switch selling over half a million a month. Weren't Nintendo's numbers 143+ at the mid-year point? I know Nintendo releases shipment numbers and not sell-through in the quarterly reports, but still why is vgchartz estimate still at 142? Seems like through August it should at least be at 143m, I'd guess real-time sales are probably more like 144m by now. Maybe I'm crazy, just feels like vgchartz has barely moved the lifetime numbers for the past like half year.

You have this impression because the Switch turned 142.04M at the end of July and, because data for August sales numbers for the Americas got delayed so many times, having been revealed only last week, the Switch's sales got stuck at around 142.55M (considering only Japan and Europe's numbers for August). VGChartz couldn't even update the sales numbers with Japan's and Europe's sales numbers for September because America's numbers for August hadn't been revealed yet

So basicly, you are seeing the Switch sales numbers at ~142M since the end of July until now. But America's sales numbers for September won't be delayed, we hope, so we will be able to see the Swtich turn 143M with America's, Europe's and Japan's numbers very soon

Last edited by CourageTCD - on 20 October 2024

Slownenberg said:

I'd like to at least see the Lite cut to $150 so it becomes a budget system kids can ask their parents for and maybe Switch can manage to eek past the DS sales number. If Nintendo does nothing I think Switch will fall just short of the DS.

This seems a bit pessimistic.

Even without a price cut, Switch is very likely going to surpass DS, while with a drop to $150 it would do a lot more than "eek" passed.



CourageTCD said:
Slownenberg said:

Side question: are the vgchartz Switch numbers even updating? lol. I feel like it's been at 142m forever, despite Switch selling over half a million a month. Weren't Nintendo's numbers 143+ at the mid-year point? I know Nintendo releases shipment numbers and not sell-through in the quarterly reports, but still why is vgchartz estimate still at 142? Seems like through August it should at least be at 143m, I'd guess real-time sales are probably more like 144m by now. Maybe I'm crazy, just feels like vgchartz has barely moved the lifetime numbers for the past like half year.

You have this impression because the Switch turned 142.04M at the end of July and, because data for August sales numbers for the Americas got delayed so many times, having been revaled only last week, the Switch's sales got stuck at around 142.55M (considering only Japan and Europe's numbers for August). VGChartz couldn't even update the sales numbers with Japan's and Europe's sales numbers for September because America's numbers for August hadn't been revealed yet

So basicly, you are seeing the Switch sales numbers at ~142M since the end of July until now. But America's sales numbers for September won't be delayed, we hope, so we will be able to see the Swtich turn 143M with America's, Europe's and Japan's numbers very soon

Unless Circana (NPD) is delayed all of the September data will be posted over the course of next week. Japan I will either get posted sometime over the weekend or on Monday. Then have Europe out Monday or Tuesday. US data should be made available on Wednesday.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Bluesky and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

firebush03 said:

The Nintendo Switch will sell 146mil LTD. Nintendo will completely end all production by next month b/c they need to use all resources in producing NSW2. M&L Brothership and DKCRHD will be canned for NSW and ported to NSW2 in 8k resolution (via blowing up the screen, no AI upscaling b/c Nintendo is "too good" for AI). NSW2 will launch at $1,000 on December 25th, 2024, in order to celebrate Christmas. The launch title will be Animal Crossing New Horizons Remaster, Super Mario Odyssey Remaster, F-Zero (like what they did with Mario All Stars on the Wii), and The Legend of Zelda: Scars of the Heart (a modded version of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom which features Kratos, Spiderman, Astro Bot, and Master Chief. This'll be the closest thing we get to Smash Bros until 2028). Nintendo will also launch a creator program which strictly prohibits any online discourse, advertisement, or gameplay of Nintendo products from prior to NSW2. Nintendo will then drop out of the console market and end all game development starting on January 31st, 2025. This is b/c the NSW2 only will have sold 10mil units in its first month, which is far below Nintedno's expectation of 100mil in its first month. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom will then be ported to Xbox One, PS4, PS3, PS2, and Nintendo 3DS. They will then resume production of NSW units, hoping to save their business, and the NSW will start selling like hot-cakes. Pent up demand will cause 28mil NSW to sell during F'26, making NSW the all-time greatest selling video game system ever.

All you naysayers will be proven wrong, and I correct. NSW will become the best selling system ever!!

If we think of time as infinite in our reality, that means there exists a timeline with limitless possibilities. This implies that, at some point in time-space, your comment could become a reality. We don't know if it will happen while we are conscious right now, but even though the probability is incredibly low, it's still greater than zero.



IF Nintendo was to hit their forecast, 158,8- 159,2 (I don't buy Ryans 160 million as it is obviously rounded up) is as good as guaranteed. My worse prediction is that if Nintendo horribly fails to hit their FC it will surpass 150 million by the end of march (9 million for this FY). I don't see less than 4 million next year and that alone would hive it over the DS. A massive 75% down in FY 26 (1 million) would bring the Switch to 155 million by march 2027. And thats pessimistic. But only it will be discontinued shortly after its 10th Bday. I can't help myself but i see 155 million as the floor.