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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

XtremeBG said:
javi741 said:

The bigger discussion would be whether or not the Switch could somehow exceed 170M and outsell the combined total of Xbox One+PS4 sales which is at around 175M. Which would be mind-blowing if the Switch could outsell an entire generation in this day and age where every console is competitive in sales.

The PS2 did outsell it's entire generation pretty easily, but the competition was much weaker then than it is now. PS4 & Xbox One sales wise were considered successful systems and to outsell both combined is crazy.

If the Switch were to reach 170M in sales, that would mean the Switch would own 50% of the entire global video game console market, which would be considered a monopoly at that point by definition.

For me right now reaching 170M seems a bit too ambitious, bit if Nintendo keeps supporting the Switch longer then we'd expect and has post-Switch 3DS sales numbers in it's final year's, it could be possible.

It will certainly be a big success for the Switch, no doubt, however, when you think it's not so mind blowing since it's simply the handheld market selling more than a home console market. Yes Switch is hybrid, but most of the people use it and sees it primary as a handheld device. And for example 7th gen handhelds had sales of close to 240M combined (DS + PSP). So whatever Switch numbers finish, it simply means that the handheld market is around the number of the Switch, or very close to it (if you remove some units for the people that may use and got it to primary play it as a home console). So when you look it generally the handheld market is drastically smaller than what it was back in the 7th gen. It is simply meaning this. And because when you leave a console for longer than normal on the market as your major product, it will sell more consoles (of course it needs to be somewhat successful too). Like if you left the PS2 to be SONY major console with no competition for 8 years (no PS3, no 360) it would sell more for these 2 years, than actually was, and therefore it would reach even higher number. Same goes for PS4, DS, Gameboy if you want, PS1 too. It's not something new, the handheld market to be bigger than the hardcore home consoles. In the 7th gen handhelds sold almost 240M and the HD twins sold 173M. So even though the handheld market is not as big as it was back then, it is still powerful. Other thing is the inflation and the higher than normal prices for the new SKUs of the other consoles, and therefore the chances that Nintendo will launch Switch 2 for let's say 500$ instead of 400$ or 450$ instead of 350$ are bigger now. This will also greatly help the Switch sales in it's later years.

There's isn't evidence that most people who own a Switch primarily view it as a handheld device. If that were the case we should see Switch Lite sales much higher than they actually are because if most people would view the Switch as primarily a handheld I'm sure many would rather prefer to get the cheaper option, but they don't. A huge majority of Switch sales come from the 300$/350$ Switch's because many people want and view the Switch as a console experience as well. Even research has shown that around 20% of people play the Switch nearly exclusively in docked mode, 50% play evenly on both modes, while only 30% play nearly exclusively in handheld mode. Most people don't primarily view the Switch as a handheld, they view it as a hybrid like the Switch is marketed to be. If anything people view it more as a console If a vast majority of people are willing to spend 300/350$ (near PS5/ Xbox Series S prices) just for the option to play on the TV.

Also, a console lasting longer in the market without a successor is a byproduct of high sales numbers that encourage the console to stick around longer, the Switch shouldn't be discredited for having a time advantage since it was successful enough for it to earn more extra years on the market, and Switch is the system this late in the game to be able to sell this well, showing it's mass appeal more than any other console.

Also, competition is stronger now than it was back then. Smartphone gaming is huge and evidently took a large chunk of sales from the handheld market with the 3DS selling only half of what the DS sold. The home console market competition has stayed about the same past few years with the combined sales of PS/Xbox each gen always hovering around 170M. While yes Nintendo created their own market for the Switch making sales very high, competition is still stronger than ever right now, I'll still give Nintendo credit for finding a way to stand out enough to potentially outsell their home console counterparts combined when many people didn't even expect to exceed 100M sold in the first place, the Switch even exceeded Nintendo's own high expectation of 100M.



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Phenomajp13 said:
XtremeBG said:

Set apart whoever you want, from whatever you want. This does no change the facts and the obvious things that I pointed out. And yes Switch might pass both PS5 and XBSX, even DS might, I myself even started comparison of PS5&XBSX vs DS in my thread. What is your point again ? It's not cherry picking, it's simply stating that the handheld market has had more hardware sales before than what it has now. That's it. I am not downplaying anything, I am stating that it's not mind blowing since 170M and even more has been done before from the handheld market (back in 7th gen). I am also not making definitons, I just used example to compare the PS+XB numbers, it's not bound with anything. It's was just example of PS+XB numbers, since @javi741 used that. What you can't understand ? And how many times I have to say that Switch is success, to stop saying I am trying to downplay it's success ?

The 7th gen also had 270 million home consoles, so yes it's quite surprising to see a single platform with potential to beat the entire home console market. Quite impressive.

Switch is still too far from the 173/175M of the PS+XBOX numbers so don't get ahead of yourself. ;) Other than that yes it's impressive, who stated the opposite ?



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Polls: When will the Switch: Outsell the DS? / Outsell the PS2? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX

XtremeBG said:
Phenomajp13 said:

The 7th gen also had 270 million home consoles, so yes it's quite surprising to see a single platform with potential to beat the entire home console market. Quite impressive.

Switch is still too far from the 173/175M of the PS+XBOX numbers so don't get ahead of yourself. ;) Other than that yes it's impressive, who stated the opposite ?

Javi and I both sense a hint of downplay, a great reply was just made from Javi. You have certainly made a few posts with obvious bias. Xtreme, there is nothing wrong with having bias, we all do, so maybe it's time to take a step back and realize you aren't immune to it. You even still entertain the idea it could sale less than 155 million lol. 



javi741 said:

There's isn't evidence that most people who own a Switch primarily view it as a handheld device. If that were the case we should see Switch Lite sales much higher than they actually are because if most people would view the Switch as primarily a handheld I'm sure many would rather prefer to get the cheaper option, but they don't. A huge majority of Switch sales come from the 300$/350$ Switch's because many people want and view the Switch as a console experience as well. Even research has shown that around 20% of people play the Switch nearly exclusively in docked mode, 50% play evenly on both modes, while only 30% play nearly exclusively in handheld mode. Most people don't primarily view the Switch as a handheld, they view it as a hybrid like the Switch is marketed to be. If anything people view it more as a console If a vast majority of people are willing to spend 300/350$ (near PS5/ Xbox Series S prices) just for the option to play on the TV.

Also, a console lasting longer in the market without a successor is a byproduct of high sales numbers that encourage the console to stick around longer, the Switch shouldn't be discredited for having a time advantage since it was successful enough for it to earn more extra years on the market, and Switch is the system this late in the game to be able to sell this well, showing it's mass appeal more than any other console.

Also, competition is stronger now than it was back then. Smartphone gaming is huge and evidently took a large chunk of sales from the handheld market with the 3DS selling only half of what the DS sold. The home console market competition has stayed about the same past few years with the combined sales of PS/Xbox each gen always hovering around 170M. While yes Nintendo created their own market for the Switch making sales very high, competition is still stronger than ever right now, I'll still give Nintendo credit for finding a way to stand out enough to potentially outsell their home console counterparts combined when many people didn't even expect to exceed 100M sold in the first place, the Switch even exceeded Nintendo's own high expectation of 100M.

I already discussed that. My point wasn't about what portion of the people uses Switch for what, but that everyone who want handheld console buys Switch, and Switch is the only true option. And no Switch does not have competition since the gaming on phone is nothing like on consoles with buttons and games that are optimized and specially designed for a console. So no Switch does not have competition, there is no other handheld console that most of the Switch games comes out on too. The smartphone gaming was like a gimmick that blew around 2010 and many said it would kill all of the consoles and everyone would play on their phones but here we are years later with most of the people playing on their Switches. The serious gamer who wants to play outside picks up Switch. And also this research was done years ago about the percentage. Also the system units sold, are those, because first the original model was already at 40M when the Lite released, second of course there will be many people buying the original and the OLED model, because many people can afford it since the difference is only 50$ and it's the original and OLED are better machines overall than the Lite models. The Lite models is simply for those who want something budget and can't afford more. There is iphone that is selling for so much more than a phone for 200$ but many people buys iphones because it's better and they can afford them. For the difference it offers, the original or the OLED is much better deal than the Lite. But this is out of the topic now. It's not so important.

Yes you are right about the lasting lifetime, but this does not change the fact either. DS was also selling very well, better than Switch even in it's peak years, but Nintendo cut it short. So it's not necessary to stick long because you were selling good. However the success of the system does not change the fact that the longer than normal lifetime is only helping. It's not discredited, it's simply stating one of the reasons.

The original point I made was that if you look it from handheld market perspective it's not so mind blowing since the handheld market has been more healthier before with sales of almost 240M.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Polls: When will the Switch: Outsell the DS? / Outsell the PS2? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX

Phenomajp13 said:

Javi and I both sense a hint of downplay, a great reply was just made from Javi. You have certainly made a few posts with obvious bias. Xtreme, there is nothing wrong with having bias, we all do, so maybe it's time to take a step back and realize you aren't immune to it. You even still entertain the idea it could sale less than 155 million lol. 

The bias has nothing to do with realistic opinions. Also don't speak about other people's senses, he is simply quoting my post and he is saying his opinion on the matter. I am not downplaying anything, if I was I would simply stay that Switch is not success because this, that and that. I haven't done that. It's you that always put labels on people and what they want to say with their posts or that they have some hidden agendas or thinkings. I don't entertain, I am realist and simply state what is possible. A person should expect everything in every situation, there is no impossible things. So to exclude something from happening is also wrong.

The only bias and even hatred I would say is yours, since when you see something different then praising the Switch, you jump right away in explanation how the person is wrong and how he wants to bash the Switch. The world is not rotating around yourself @Phenomajp13

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 24 September 2024

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Polls: When will the Switch: Outsell the DS? / Outsell the PS2? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX

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XtremeBG said:
Phenomajp13 said:

Javi and I both sense a hint of downplay, a great reply was just made from Javi. You have certainly made a few posts with obvious bias. Xtreme, there is nothing wrong with having bias, we all do, so maybe it's time to take a step back and realize you aren't immune to it. You even still entertain the idea it could sale less than 155 million lol. 

The bias has nothing to do with realistic opinions. Also don't speak about other people's senses, he is simply quoting my post and he is saying his opinion on the matter. I am not downplaying anything, if I was I would simply stay that Switch is not success because this, that and that. I haven't done that. It's you that always put labels on people and what they want to say with their posts or that they have some hidden agendas or thinkings. I don't entertain, I am realist and simply state what is possible. A person should expect everything in every situation, there is no impossible things. So to exclude something from happening is also wrong.

The only bias and even hatred I would say is yours, since when you see something different then praising the Switch, you jump right away in explanation how the person is wrong and how he wants to bash the Switch. The world is not rotating around yourself @Phenomajp13

No, I just directly point out obvious downplay and disengious posts. That's what your post about the Switch all come down too. Your post is nothing more than it's a handheld and that's why it's selling so much. You then cherrypick DS, a platform obviously inflated by the same means you use to disqualify Wii. If you don't disqualify Wii, then you have to admit PS and Xbox should be benefitting from the base that was brought in by Wii similar to your claim of Switch is benefitting from DS. You also don't get to determine what is or isn't competition. Switch has competition from the home consoles and the PC market including the handheld PCs but of course that doesn't count because reasons. These are nothing more than excuses that neither one of us can determine, the only thing we can say is Switch will soon become the highest selling platform in history despite you saying it wouldn't pull it off knowing it had no competition. Explain why you knew a platform that has the entire handheld market to itself with no competition and over 240 million consumers apparently and just now you realize all of this could lead to Switch selling the most and you still doubted it? Everything you are saying now are all things you knew last year and still doubted it? 



One of the biggest issues with Nintendo distractors is that they become so infatuated with downplaying Nintendo that they don't realize how dumb their logic sounds. There is no market of people seeking a portable device, just like there is no market of people seeking home consoles. These people are seeking games, what sales a platform are not it's features. It's library sales the console. People buy Nintendo handhelds because of Pokemon, not portability. That's why Playstation handhelds failed, because people aren't buying for portability, they are buying for the library it offers like home consoles. If it was so simple to just offer a portable platform and 240 million people might show up, then the discrepancy between Nintendo and Sony handhelds wouldn't be a complete beat down if these people were only seeking a portable gaming console. Switch is obviously pulling from the traditional Nintendo fanbase including Mario, Pokemon, Zelda, and Animal Crossing along with those DS and Wii fans from the blue ocean, and with fans from the 3rd party support received. Those are people from the gaming market (home & handheld). That's why Nintendo Switch Sports and Ring Fit Adventure did so well. Those games are simply not as popular as their Wii counterparts. 

Last edited by Phenomajp13 - on 24 September 2024

Phenomajp13 said:

No, I just directly point out obvious downplay and disengious posts. That's what your post about the Switch all come down too. Your post is nothing more than it's a handheld and that's why it's selling so much. You then cherrypick DS, a platform obviously inflated by the same means you use to disqualify Wii. If you don't disqualify Wii, then you have to admit PS and Xbox should be benefitting from the base that was brought in by Wii similar to your claim of Switch is benefitting from DS. You also don't get to determine what is or isn't competition. Switch has competition from the home consoles and the PC market including the handheld PCs but of course that doesn't count because reasons. These are nothing more than excuses that neither one of us can determine, the only thing we can say is Switch will soon become the highest selling platform in history despite you saying it wouldn't pull it off knowing it had no competition. Explain why you knew a platform that has the entire handheld market to itself with no competition and over 240 million consumers apparently and just now you realize all of this could lead to Switch selling the most and you still doubted it? Everything you are saying now are all things you knew last year and still doubted it? 

First of all learn how to write a post and explain the things, cuz honestly I didn't understand more than half of your post, and what are you really trying to tell. Throwing some names here and there and accusations. Why you take it so personally first of all ? Is the Switch your own product that you created ? Are you the president of Nintendo ? I can determine, speak, and compare to whatever I want to, and you can tell me nothing. I can do everything. Like it or not. @javi741 first gave the example of PS+XBOX, because of that I followed with that examp. No one is excluding your precious Wii. I simply write down one different point of view that was for the handheld market in general (putting 7th gen handhelds vs 9th gen handheld hardware numbers without any context about success or anything like that), nothing to bash the Switch, and I repeat 10 time it's successful console, what more do you want ? and after all that you continue to attack on personal level. Just get a life. If I write down here what I think of you, I will get ban forever, trust me... You even started to write to yourself, 2 posts in a row .. no comment. And please don't explain me what sells and what people are buying, I have worked in a video games store for more than 3 years, so I think I know little more than you about that. And I don't need to prove it since debate with you is pointless. I would use another words but they are not okay for here. And please don't talk me about senses and biases, cuz we all saw how you went into argument with so many people here in a couple of threads before. Just save your words.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 25 September 2024

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Polls: When will the Switch: Outsell the DS? / Outsell the PS2? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX

XtremeBG said:
Phenomajp13 said:

No, I just directly point out obvious downplay and disengious posts. That's what your post about the Switch all come down too. Your post is nothing more than it's a handheld and that's why it's selling so much. You then cherrypick DS, a platform obviously inflated by the same means you use to disqualify Wii. If you don't disqualify Wii, then you have to admit PS and Xbox should be benefitting from the base that was brought in by Wii similar to your claim of Switch is benefitting from DS. You also don't get to determine what is or isn't competition. Switch has competition from the home consoles and the PC market including the handheld PCs but of course that doesn't count because reasons. These are nothing more than excuses that neither one of us can determine, the only thing we can say is Switch will soon become the highest selling platform in history despite you saying it wouldn't pull it off knowing it had no competition. Explain why you knew a platform that has the entire handheld market to itself with no competition and over 240 million consumers apparently and just now you realize all of this could lead to Switch selling the most and you still doubted it? Everything you are saying now are all things you knew last year and still doubted it? 

First of all learn how to write a post and explain the things, cuz honestly I didn't understand more than half of your post, and what are you really trying to tell. Throwing some names here and there and accusations. Why you take it so personally first of all ? Is the Switch your own product that you created ? Are you the president of Nintendo ? I can determine, speak, and compare to whatever I want to, and you can tell me nothing. I can do everything. Like it or not. @javi741 first gave the example of PS+XBOX, because of that I followed with that examp. No one is excluding your precious Wii. I simply write down one different point of view that was for the handheld market in general (putting 7th gen handhelds vs 9th gen handheld hardware numbers without any context about success or anything like that), nothing to bash the Switch, and I repeat 10 time it's successful console, what more do you want ? and after all that you continue to attack on personal level. Just get a life. If I write down here what I think of you, I will get ban forever, trust me... You even started to write to yourself, 2 posts in a row .. no comment. And please don't explain me what sells and what people are buying, I have worked in a video games store for more than 3 years, so I think I know little more than you about that. And I don't need to prove it since debate with you is pointless. I would use another words but they are not okay for here. And please don't talk me about senses and biases, cuz we all saw how you went into argument with so many people here in a couple of threads before. Just save your words.

I thought I explained it well enough but I'll try again. You are free to compare whatever you want just like I'm free to critize your comparison. Javi threw out an interesting Stat because who would've thought the market leader would get trounced like this? Switch challenging PS and Xbox combined is quite surprising along with outselling PS2 (which you doubt til this very day). 

You obviously were offended and did what console warriors do, cherrypick data to form excuses to downplay. That's the whole point of your handheld market nonsense, such as 240 million consumers and only Switch can sale to them.

What makes your nonsense so apparent is the fact that you knew all of this before and still elected to doubt the Switch could outsell PS2? That makes no sense, if you always knew the Switch had these advantages such as no competition in the far larger handheld market, then why did you ever doubt the Switch could surpass PS2 with all of the Switch's advantages? It just seems like you simply made all of this nonsense up to downplay the fact that you are officially giving in and you are coping with being wrong. Your first signs of this were in another thread after the PS5 Pro price tag reveal where you state 'it (PS5 Pro) or PS5 with a price cut will not be competitive enough to stop Switch", do you recall this post? Kind of a weird post when you think about it because remember Switch has no handheld competition regardless. The post is below, what does the PS5 Pro have to do with Switch? Switch surpassing PS2 must be a real nightmare for you! So that right there was the first sign of you giving in and in this thread was your coping. Now all of a sudden the Switch has unfair advantages like the massive cherrypicked 240 million handheld market and no competition. Do you even realize how your logic isn't even consistent? You literally claim Switch has no competition in the handheld market but you were hoping better pricing on home consoles (PS5/Xbox) would negatively effect Switch's ability to outsell PS2? Are they competition or not?

XtremeBG in the PS5 Pro reveal thread: "With the facts now that there won't be price cut soon for the PS5, and even the price going up more than expected, for both XBOX and Playstation, and with having no major competition for the next 2-3 years close to a price point of 300$ I am now more inclined to believe the Switch may very well reach 160M and pass it. With those high prices from both Microsoft and Sony (new SKUs of their consoles releases not at the same price and pricecut of the old ones, but instead maintaining the old ones at the same price and launching the new ones at very high prices) I am also inclined to believe the Switch 2 will launch at least at 400$ if not more, both cases of which will result in still decent sales for the Switch 1. This was the last thing that could prevent the Switch from reaching and passing 160M (or at least make it harder) in my opinion,"

Last edited by Phenomajp13 - on 25 September 2024

XtremeBG said:
javi741 said:

There's isn't evidence that most people who own a Switch primarily view it as a handheld device. If that were the case we should see Switch Lite sales much higher than they actually are because if most people would view the Switch as primarily a handheld I'm sure many would rather prefer to get the cheaper option, but they don't. A huge majority of Switch sales come from the 300$/350$ Switch's because many people want and view the Switch as a console experience as well. Even research has shown that around 20% of people play the Switch nearly exclusively in docked mode, 50% play evenly on both modes, while only 30% play nearly exclusively in handheld mode. Most people don't primarily view the Switch as a handheld, they view it as a hybrid like the Switch is marketed to be. If anything people view it more as a console If a vast majority of people are willing to spend 300/350$ (near PS5/ Xbox Series S prices) just for the option to play on the TV.

Also, a console lasting longer in the market without a successor is a byproduct of high sales numbers that encourage the console to stick around longer, the Switch shouldn't be discredited for having a time advantage since it was successful enough for it to earn more extra years on the market, and Switch is the system this late in the game to be able to sell this well, showing it's mass appeal more than any other console.

Also, competition is stronger now than it was back then. Smartphone gaming is huge and evidently took a large chunk of sales from the handheld market with the 3DS selling only half of what the DS sold. The home console market competition has stayed about the same past few years with the combined sales of PS/Xbox each gen always hovering around 170M. While yes Nintendo created their own market for the Switch making sales very high, competition is still stronger than ever right now, I'll still give Nintendo credit for finding a way to stand out enough to potentially outsell their home console counterparts combined when many people didn't even expect to exceed 100M sold in the first place, the Switch even exceeded Nintendo's own high expectation of 100M.

I already discussed that. My point wasn't about what portion of the people uses Switch for what, but that everyone who want handheld console buys Switch, and Switch is the only true option. And no Switch does not have competition since the gaming on phone is nothing like on consoles with buttons and games that are optimized and specially designed for a console. So no Switch does not have competition, there is no other handheld console that most of the Switch games comes out on too. The smartphone gaming was like a gimmick that blew around 2010 and many said it would kill all of the consoles and everyone would play on their phones but here we are years later with most of the people playing on their Switches. The serious gamer who wants to play outside picks up Switch. And also this research was done years ago about the percentage. Also the system units sold, are those, because first the original model was already at 40M when the Lite released, second of course there will be many people buying the original and the OLED model, because many people can afford it since the difference is only 50$ and it's the original and OLED are better machines overall than the Lite models. The Lite models is simply for those who want something budget and can't afford more. There is iphone that is selling for so much more than a phone for 200$ but many people buys iphones because it's better and they can afford them. For the difference it offers, the original or the OLED is much better deal than the Lite. But this is out of the topic now. It's not so important.

Yes you are right about the lasting lifetime, but this does not change the fact either. DS was also selling very well, better than Switch even in it's peak years, but Nintendo cut it short. So it's not necessary to stick long because you were selling good. However the success of the system does not change the fact that the longer than normal lifetime is only helping. It's not discredited, it's simply stating one of the reasons.

The original point I made was that if you look it from handheld market perspective it's not so mind blowing since the handheld market has been more healthier before with sales of almost 240M.

Smartphones are definitely a huge competition to the handheld market even still. I mean, total dedicated handheld sales from the PSP/DS gen to PS Vita/3DS gen went from selling around 235 Million Total to 93 Million, the obvious reason for that was cause many people who brought the DS moved on to smartphone gaming by the time the 3DS came out. Yes I agree smartphone gaming & handheld console gaming are completely different experiences, but for people who primarily care about casual games, smartphone games for many people get the job done to the point where those same DS owners didn't feel the need to upgrade to a 3DS, so yes smartphone gaming is still a big threat to the handheld market.

Also I'm not sure why you're using a handheld generation from 15-20 years ago instead of a more recent, accurate representation of the handheld market today. The most recent handheld generation sold a combined 93 million, which the Switch blew past where it's gonna reach 150M+ in its lifetime. So even if you wanna use the argument that people are buying the Switch primarily as a handheld, the Switch alone blew expectations of what was capable of the handheld market in this day and age where the previous handheld generation only sold 93 Million total while the Switch sold 150+ Million.

The 235 Million handhelds sold in the PSP/DS era isn't an accurate representation of the total handheld market today, smartphone gaming didn't exist and those were the only real platforms available to play games on the go. The Switch has to deal with strong competition from smartphones but was able to stand out enough due to its hybrid nature. You have to remember as well that before the Switch launched many people doubted it's success because many people moved to smartphone gaming, proving smartphones were at the very least a threat to the handheld market at the time.