And especially passing the 140M. It's like there is obstacles at every milestone by 10, but at 140M it becomes really hard to jump and to not get an injury. Or to be in the game on easy, and after 140M to go on hard. Just after that numbers everyone's stamina falls of no matter how strong they are (DS, the strongest sales in peak period) or how long legs they can show (PS2 legs cut in half there, from 14 to 16M every year down to 6M). See DS, See PS2, and See now Switch. When the DS dropped like a rock ? when it was around that number, when PS2 dropped from 14-16M to 6-7M for 2 years and then 4M ? when it was approaching the 140M. When Switch began to show drops of 60 and 70% in US and Europe, and dropped in the 30s finally in JAPAN ? when it approached the 140M milestone. The obstacle of 150M is even bigger and it slows everyone even more. And 160 is the bed for the dead (which DS didn't reach cuz of how brutal 150M milestone was, and PS2 we don't know for sure, but even if it was it was killed slowly by the 150, cuz at the point of reaching 160 it was dead). Maybe it's laughable but if you think it that way it's more easy, than the traditional way. The only things that can give the Switch more energy to pass the realms of 150s into 160M are the factors I described, and they are only in Nintendo's hands.

(that’s a bit of a stretch lol. Switch is down hard in May for the sale reason PS5 was down hard on Jan/Feb. Outside of May, the NSW has actually held up pretty well. It was keeping pace with 2023 in Japan up until April, for instance, but lost some steam likely in response to Nintendo’s announcement of the successor coming soon. Similarly, only saw 20-30% YoY drops in America. Switch is on-track — regardless of price cuts and all — to still comfortably hit 10mil for the current fiscal year. It’s not a stretch to speculate that momentum will remain strong going into a Q2/Q3 where an original new Zelda is releasing.)

Reason or not, it's a fact. And I expect to be a fact for the incoming months as well. As I checked now, it was down on both of these territories from start of the year not just now, it simply wasn't as bad (and don't count only May, April was the first big drop month, so two months in a row, maybe becomes a pattern eh ?) An really when you see the last two months in Europe were 140 and 158k. So Switch is maintaining level of ~150K monthly there. June 2023 was 330k. You really expect June to not be drop as well ? America's April was 125k before that it was 200k so even with some boost somehow, even if it does 150k for may in US, in 2023 it was 450k, so massively down .. June was 360K, again no way Switch is making even 200k let alone more in May or June. So it's again big drop. Then till October the months are 250 or 220k but with drop to 125k in April I really don't believe Switch will return to 200k levels. So even 150K would be a big drop. And as I said earlier, some small titles not triple A big as TOTK for example, will do little to no boost. We will find out soon enough of course.

Nintendo clarified that the 13.5m forecast does not include the successor: https://www.gamesindustry.biz/nintendo-no-switch-2-before-april-2025#:~:text=Nintendo%20has%20confirmed%20that%20the,of%20a%20next%2Dgen%20Switch.

I also have my doubts about a price cut; nearly everything is going up in price rather than down these days due to inflation, and Nintendo has been highly averse to price cuts for a long time now.

If Nintendo plans to put the Switch to pasture it likely won't have a price cut after Switch 2 launches. If they decide they want to keep it around as a second "budget" option, they slash the price and keep supporting it with cross-gen titles(persoanlly, I think Metroid Prime 4 and the next Pokemon will be cross-gen).

I lean with the second option; that install base is just too juicy to leave behind without. The key here is the software - the Switch comfortably has the most 1M unit sellers for any console, with multiple niche 500k titles schooling behind. Until the software slows down after the successor, I believe they keep Switch on shelves with OLED at $200 and Lite at $150.

Nintendo makes a brief message to officially communicate two things:
-that the announcement of the next console will be before March 2025
-that from the moment they announced the switch until they released it, two years passed

And what do people say about this message, so simple and so clear that it is impossible not to understand it correctly? Some say that switch2 is coming out this year for sure. Others that will be out next year for sure.

The situation speaks for itself.

The only thing we know for sure is that when Sony, Xbox or Nintendo announce a new console, it takes at least a year until the console arrives.

The only thing we almost know for sure is that the switch2 announcement will be made after the Christmas season. Therefore, the console will be released around March 2026.

Hopefully they will release it on Christmas 2025. But it is the least likely.

The switch got released around 5 months after its official announcement. There is no rule that says it will take over a year after they show their next console before it hits the market.

Some key things and food for thought.

1. Low sales!

The Switch's current sales are of course declining but are we sure this isn't expected and are they low enough to negatively affect the goal? The Switch's current trajectory of sales are on the poorer side relative to it's prior years but are they low enough and even if they remain poor up until September with Zelda and Zelda Switch Lite special edition, that's only poorer sales for 5 of the 12 months (April 2024 - August 2024). The remaining 7 months would be more than enough time to course correct starting with September flowing into the holiday season to still meet the goal. This leads to my next point.

2. Fiscal year goal!

Lets be clear here, the 13.5 million goal is verified for the Nintendo Switch only. They have told the world publicly including their investors, they intend to sale 13.5 million Switch's this fiscal year. Of course this isn't guaranteed but it is their goal and it looks quite incompetent to miss your goal which is why Nintendo always has an excuse when they do. It is a big deal! These are not fans, they are your investors. They do not care about Switch 2 possibly coming this fiscal year, either Nintendo purposely mislead them, lied, or are dumb enough to believe they thought they could meet their goal for Switch 1. No matter the excuse, it looks very bad and is likely a financial crime. They intend to meet the goal and historically speaking that was usually via price cuts, revisions, software, bundles, or any combination of the bunch. Maybe they do something else and surprise us but they intend to meet the goal.

3. Price cut, revision, or whatever!

This isn't about whether you believe in a price cut or not, feel free to doubt it, there are several posters that agree. It's just another possibility on how Nintendo could meet the goal. It could be a revision or bundles or whatever Nintendo has planned. What we are saying is that Nintendo likely has something and you should probably consider they do since they didn't set the goal for nothing and the current sales trajectory doesn't look like they will make it if they stay put. You would also need to explain why Nintendo would say publicly we expect revenue, profit, and software to decline significantly but not the hardware? 

4. Finally, food for thought!

I see a lot of talk about the successors release timing and cross gen games. What we have so far is a tweet from Nintendo saying we will talk about the successor sometime this fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. Some people view that as an announcement, while others view it as an announcement of an announcement. We should keep in mind, how often has Nintendo acknowledged/announced a platform publicly without a codename? That's what they would be doing here because we still have no public acknowledgement for Switch 2's codename. For Wii, we had Nintendo publicly acknowledge it as Revolution. Same with Project Cafe and WiiU along with NX and Switch. Im not saying its impossible but doesn't seem likely to me along with the fiscal year goal. Im saying this because there seems to be this obsession with trying to place Switch 2 in Q1 2025 or else it's a delay. Im saying its very reasonable to believe it was always intended for second half 2025 or beyond and nothing I see so far points to a release in first half 2025. 

Cross gen games also seems fishy to me. Zelda is the franchise that Nintendo on several occasions have shown to be the favorite franchise for this type of release and yet Nintendo completely declined this scenario with Zelda ToTK. Pokemon on the other hand has shown to be the last franchise from Nintendo to move to the next platform and has a history of releasing exclusively on the prior generation yet now Im suppose to believe Pokemon Legends ZA will be a cross generational release? Even if you say Metroid Prime 4 Beyond, is that franchise large enough to carry a console release or would Nintendo risk it being over shadowed by a larger franchise? Personally Im not seeing it and fully believe those aren't cross gen at all and are intended to be the Switch's swansongs. Metroid Prime 4 Beyond in my opinion has the higher chance but I even doubt that.

So for what we know so far, September has Zelda, October has Mario Party, November has Mario & Luigi, and January 2025 has Donkey Kong. Pokemon Legends ZA and Metriod Prime are slated for 2025. I certainly doubt Donkey Kong is the only release for the final quarter of this fiscal year (Q4 Jan 2025 - March 2025). Metriod Prime 4 I think is harder to predict it's release timing. I think historically its been September releases but honestly that is based on Metriod Prime 3 Corruption so im probably wrong on that. Pokemon on the other hand, I am very familiar with and can point out we have had a Pokemon Presents in February and August each year since 2021. So of course this isn't set in stone but I don't think its unreasonable to believe we will have another Pokemon Presents in August. This Presents would likely detail Pokemon Pocket (the new mobile Pokemon trading card game), we also need more Pokemon games on NSO (Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow?), and of course this could come with a Pokemon Legends ZA new trailer and release window. I do predict to get a release in February/March 2025 greatly helping the fiscal year goal. Pokemon is not the type of franchise to be announced in early 2024 and release almost two years later. A new generation of Pokemon was announced in Febuary of 2022 and released that November. Just my personal speculation, can't wait to see what Nintendo actually does!

i think there is another direct coming in September, they will announce Mario Wonder DLC and the Holiday game they have for december.

Really depends, I (for some reason I really can’t motivate) have a feeling the Switch successor might be BC. In that case I think nintendo will only sell off remaining stock and call it a day.