Im a 100% positive that switch will reach 160 million and will become the number 1 console of all time, a record that will stand for many years, probably decades

Most consoles don’t even reach year 7 of their respective lifespans. What’s just as remarkable is that the Switch had a higher peak than the PS2, even almost selling 30 million units in the fiscal year of 2021. Other consoles with as big fiscal year sales of 25-30 million units would drop drastically in later years like the Wii. The DS is the closest comparison (with an even higher peak) and it just fell several million short of the PS2 in the end. Switch got the high peak and then the PS2 legs. Not to mention an incredible stranglehold of Japan that can’t be understated at this point, especially when there are no signs of Nintendo losing such grip anytime soon. So even as the rest of the world ends up buying Switch units less this year as they wait for the Switch 2, Japan has picked up some of the slack both in hardware and software.

Most likely the Switch remains in production for 3 years afterwards. That seems fairly standard with everything bar the Wii U. So the successor will launch in 2025 for sure, the Switch will be in production until 2028, with support until 2030 at the least. 

It's also possible with the right price cuts the Switch remains a cheap console alternative, especially the mini. I know that remains to eb seen, given we don't know if the tech production cost will allow a huge price drop. Last I checked Nintendo were making 50 dollars profit off the Switch, and I'm not sure given the pandemic etc if chips and parts actually lowered much in price to do a price drop, even on old chips.

To be fair, there was no hype or game interest in the first 6 months of this year really. The 2nd half of the year looks far stronger and I'm sure they have some stuff for next year as well. I believe the 2nd half of the year will be much higher in sales. Though I'd say the Switch is prime for a price cut right now.

The 3DS was different brand of console and had a freak year of sales going up when the Switch was released. That doesn't normally happen, plus it had a slow start. At the moment we don't even know if Nintendo will drop the price, or even if they can due to the way tech parts are today. It's a different climate

The truth of the matter is we'll know if 160m is likely by the reports of this year. If it sells 12-13+ million, then 160 million is in the bank. If it sells under 10 million it's unlikely.

You were losing me with the first paragraph with all the caveat language. 
- but the 3ds was different - ok, how?

- 3ds had a freak year of sales!! - ok, why!?

- that doesn’t normally happen! - umm, ok what’s normal?

but you completely lost me when you said switch had a slow start…..best to know what you’re talkin’ bout son  

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/04/27/nintendo-switch-sells-millions-of-units-after-launch.html

I apology to @Spindel, @XtremeBG and @Slownenberg. I didn't want to accuse them for having an agenda. Especially from XtremeBG and Slownenberg I haver read and appreciated many posts they contributed over the years. I'm really sorry, my post had the wrong tone. What happens sometimes is if I see or analyse something and can't understand why others can't follow my view, even though it's obvious (for me) that my view is on the right track.

My political comparison at the end was also not necessary. To counter that: Well, it certainly is much more realistic that the Switch will sell less than 155m than myself becoming US-President. (I don't even have US-citizenship.)

Under 155m is very unlikely.
Nintendo know more about the Switch's momentum and sales than any of us, and they're projecting it will be at just below 155m by the end of next March, just 9 months from now.
Even if they fall short of their forecast by say, 1.5m, that still gets them to over 153m; from there it's less than 7m to break the 160m barrier.

Long time ago, I underestimated how hard it becomes once console pass the 100M with the PS4, and maybe even highball it (because I thought SONY intentions were to continue it's life as it did with the PS2) Then it turned out to be completely wrong about that, and therefore from my original 130-140-150M expectations in 2019 for the PS4 to barely pass the 117M. From there on out I look to not underestimate the stress and the hardness for a console to continue sell after the 100M point and especially after the 140M (DS sales path referencing here, cuz before 140M DS was like peaking - not really because it's peak was 30M, but 20M for a year is a dream peak for other consoles, and then coming down very bad after it passed the 140M mark), So I can very easy highball the Switch and tell all the good things, Nintendo slashes the price by 100$, delays Switch 2 till holiday of 2025, put it at 400$ and put new Switch mini for 99$ and Switch reaches 180M lifetime. But considering all other consoles before that, their sales paths, and especially their later years, and the heavy heavy lift of saturation point, and the slowed speed with which PS2, DS both continued after the point of 130-140M and now Switch is experiencing this same thing worldwide (JAPAN just started to drop as well) I simply can't give the best outcome here, unless I see it happening. Outside of PS2, no other console have managed to sell so much units for so long time after it's peak period (I am talking not only units here but good amount of units each year for extended period). And most of the people are now predicting Switch will do exactly that. Out of all the different consoles from gen 1 to now only 1 succeed, and because of that odds are really tiny it will be repeated again. So again I am not seeing Switch reaching 180M (many here may think they are talking about 160M but with the things they are saying it will happen or can happened, price cuts, new models, support till 2030, and price of at least 400$ for the new Switch, all of this points to 180M sales not 160M), And for 160M I think price cut need to happen, cuz even with support and marketing and bundles if you want, the console is dropping worldwide massively, and it's drops in Europe and US are even bigger than 50%, and this will only continue. And some last minute software that is not even AAA big as for example TOTK was, won't save it or give it noticeable boost. As for exact predictions, I expect Switch to finish at 148-150M this CALENDAR year, finish at 152M - 154M next CALENDAR year, and 1-2M more in the CALENDAR years going ahead for totaling up to around 155M. And we are not talking price cut included here. If there is actual price cut (or some form of new model priced less than the Lite) then I can see it doing a few millions more lifetime. And just to clarify as often there is answers to my numbers with shipped numbers thrown in. All of my numbers are for SOLD units, not shipped. I know in the end shipped becomes sold but those numbers I pointed out are for SOLD.

Oh, and I forgot the elephant in the room, Nintendo's forecast. I am not neglecting it. However I still believe there is something not right with it. To me this is combined numbers with the new system - Switch 2, or price cut of at least 100$ incoming. If someone does not believe the first, then it's the second. There is no way Switch sells (or shipps) 13.5M by march only by itself, with the current pricing.

@Fight-the-Streets And all of this is not addressed to you, but to everyone, I just used your post to quote because you quoted my original one.

@XtremeBG makes some very good points that some ppl on here need to listen to: (i) We do not know anything beyond January 2025 about Nintendo’s hardware/software plans; (ii) It’s very easy to become caught up in the hype especially when discussing whether a console will become the next best seller of all time; (iii) Sales figures have a history of "dropping like a rock" after the release of a successor.

The NSW is certainly a unique situation, there is no denying this, but the confidence here needs to be kept in check. There is literally no way we could possibly know where the number will land as of the moment.