firebush03 said:
Fight-the-Streets said:
XtremeBG said:
Switch will most likely pass 150M however with the current speed and drops it is doing every month, I don't see it much above that, unless price cut happens. It dropped 50% worldwide in total sales, since January. It made almost 1M and for April it was 600k almost half of what January was. And with the drops keep getting bigger every month, and the Japan market also began to drop in the last few weeks, Switch is all but sure to have 500k months going forward. And I won't be surprised if by the time we enter September and October it has reached 400k monthly. With this speed and drops I expect even bigger ones next year when the successor is announced and launched. So at this point in time, unless price cut happens I am not seeing Switch much above 150M when all is said and done. Maybe 155M at the most. I can accept the range of 150-155M. |
I don't address @Spindel as he's number is beyond. Therefore, @XtremeBG and @Slownenberg and anybody else in a similar ballpark: I guess you guys expect the Switch to ship about 9m this FY which would bring the lifetime shipping to about 150.3m by end of March 2025. I guess then you expect the Switch to sell about 5m for the rest of its life and we would end at a final tally of about 154.3m (Slownenberg's number is already below that). The are two major issues with the above prediction: - With only 9m for this FY, Nintendo would miss its forecast by 33.33%. That is too big of a mismatch! I know that Nintendo has missed its forecasts several times and you think the shareholders wouldn't care as the Switch clearly has run its course and the focus is on a successful start of Switch 2. But why has Nintendo then predicted the 13.5m? You think they looked at the number from FY24, i.e. 15.7m, and just pulled the 13.5m out of their asses because it is not a too big decline and therefore the shares wouldn't be negatively affected that much? If you really think that – I have no words for it, it's plain wrong! Sure, most probably no shareholder would sue Nintendo and even if, the worst outcome for Nintendo would be to pay a small penalty and they would just laugh it away with their huge cash reserves. The problem with that is that no serious company (and Nintendo is one) is operating like that and for what anyway? What is there to gain? For a short moment in time where you have avoided that the shares plummet too much? Ironically, if they would miss this forecast, the shares would plummet anyway and probably harder than if they would have been honest in the first place and actually would have forecasted a more realistic number.
So in your scenario, after shipping 9m in FY25, the sales would drop by around 60% to 3.6m in FY26 and then the Switch would sell about another 1.4m for the rest of its life with end of production in the year 2027. The problem with this scenario is that it's just conveniently made up to meet the agenda of Switch's lifetimes sales below 155m. A 60% drop, yes sure, possible but also after an already sharp drop of 57.33% drop in FY25 (from 15.7m down to 9m). The same problem with the assumption of Switch's end of production in 2027, about 2 years after ther release of Switch 2. Again, it's possible but at the same time, the Switch's post successor life is conveniently made short to fit the agenda of lifetimes sales below 155m.
What should I say: The above scenario is much less realistic than Kamala Harris becoming the next US-President. |
please chill out lol. These are ppl giving their thoughts on whether Switch succeeds in overtaking PS2/DS. You make fine points, but I think this is taking it a little far… |
I apology to @Spindel, @XtremeBG and @Slownenberg. I didn't want to accuse them for having an agenda. Especially from XtremeBG and Slownenberg I haver read and appreciated many posts they contributed over the years. I'm really sorry, my post had the wrong tone. What happens sometimes is if I see or analyse something and can't understand why others can't follow my view, even though it's obvious (for me) that my view is on the right track.
My political comparison at the end was also not necessary. To counter that: Well, it certainly is much more realistic that the Switch will sell less than 155m than myself becoming US-President. (I don't even have US-citizenship.) 
