The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[XtremeBG]

Fight-the-Streets said:

I apology to @Spindel, @XtremeBG and @Slownenberg. I didn't want to accuse them for having an agenda. Especially from XtremeBG and Slownenberg I haver read and appreciated many posts they contributed over the years. I'm really sorry, my post had the wrong tone. What happens sometimes is if I see or analyse something and can't understand why others can't follow my view, even though it's obvious (for me) that my view is on the right track.

Long time ago, I underestimated how hard it becomes once console pass the 100M with the PS4, and maybe even highball it (because I thought SONY intentions were to continue it's life as it did with the PS2) Then it turned out to be completely wrong about that, and therefore from my original 130-140-150M expectations in 2019 for the PS4 to barely pass the 117M. From there on out I look to not underestimate the stress and the hardness for a console to continue sell after the 100M point and especially after the 140M (DS sales path referencing here, cuz before 140M DS was like peaking - not really because it's peak was 30M, but 20M for a year is a dream peak for other consoles, and then coming down very bad after it passed the 140M mark), So I can very easy highball the Switch and tell all the good things, Nintendo slashes the price by 100$, delays Switch 2 till holiday of 2025, put it at 400$ and put new Switch mini for 99$ and Switch reaches 180M lifetime. But considering all other consoles before that, their sales paths, and especially their later years, and the heavy heavy lift of saturation point, and the slowed speed with which PS2, DS both continued after the point of 130-140M and now Switch is experiencing this same thing worldwide (JAPAN just started to drop as well) I simply can't give the best outcome here, unless I see it happening. Outside of PS2, no other console have managed to sell so much units for so long time after it's peak period (I am talking not only units here but good amount of units each year for extended period). And most of the people are now predicting Switch will do exactly that. Out of all the different consoles from gen 1 to now only 1 succeed, and because of that odds are really tiny it will be repeated again. So again I am not seeing Switch reaching 180M (many here may think they are talking about 160M but with the things they are saying it will happen or can happened, price cuts, new models, support till 2030, and price of at least 400$ for the new Switch, all of this points to 180M sales not 160M), And for 160M I think price cut need to happen, cuz even with support and marketing and bundles if you want, the console is dropping worldwide massively, and it's drops in Europe and US are even bigger than 50%, and this will only continue. And some last minute software that is not even AAA big as for example TOTK was, won't save it or give it noticeable boost. As for exact predictions, I expect Switch to finish at 148-150M this CALENDAR year, finish at 152M - 154M next CALENDAR year, and 1-2M more in the CALENDAR years going ahead for totaling up to around 155M. And we are not talking price cut included here. If there is actual price cut (or some form of new model priced less than the Lite) then I can see it doing a few millions more lifetime. And just to clarify as often there is answers to my numbers with shipped numbers thrown in. All of my numbers are for SOLD units, not shipped. I know in the end shipped becomes sold but those numbers I pointed out are for SOLD.

Oh, and I forgot the elephant in the room, Nintendo's forecast. I am not neglecting it. However I still believe there is something not right with it. To me this is combined numbers with the new system - Switch 2, or price cut of at least 100$ incoming. If someone does not believe the first, then it's the second. There is no way Switch sells (or shipps) 13.5M by march only by itself, with the current pricing.

@Fight-the-Streets And all of this is not addressed to you, but to everyone, I just used your post to quote because you quoted my original one.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 04 July 2024