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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How well do you think Metroid Dread will sell?

 

Predict Metroid Dread Sales

1M or less 3 3.23%
 
1M to 2M 21 22.58%
 
2M to 3M 34 36.56%
 
3M + 35 37.63%
 
Total:93

I’m also thinking 2M to 2.5M. It’ll get the bonus for being on Switch but at the same time a penalty for being “just” a 2D sidescroller. So that means it’ll end above the average for mainline, numbered Metroids, but won’t be the top selling.

EDIT: I forgot to mention, I don’t think the pricepoint, whether 40, 50 or 60 is going to matter very much either way. Fans will buy no matter what and the series itself is too much ‘core’ to be very attractive to ‘casuals’ regardless.

Last edited by S.Peelman - on 19 June 2021

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2-3 million units seems good enough. While Metroid games aren't big sellers by any means, the Switch has managed to break many sales records in regards to its 1st parties, so I can see Dread doing very well, despite it's higher price. Plus, it's a new 2D Metroid after so long.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

Slownenberg said:

2 million. $60 price is gonna hold it back. If it was priced reasonably at like $40 i think it'd do 4 million, but alas.

It's present day Nintendo. It's pay 60 bucks for our game or you can go to hell.

That being said... 2 million at $60 and 4 million at $40 are kind of equivalent profit-wise so yeah, I guess that kind of estimate would be why they keep doing it.



 

 

 

 

 

Metallox said:
JWeinCom said:

My heart says 5 million, my brain says 2.5... I think that averages to... 3.75? I'll go with that.

Seems like a tough proposition to me, but hopefully you're right. I don't think a single Metroid game has ever come close to those numbers, has it? I feel like the sales data for Metroid titles is very elusive. 

Not that we know of, but I'm not sure how great our tracking is.

But, sometimes franchises just kind of take off. For example, the Fire Emblem franchise was virtually non-existent in the US and on its last legs before Awakening, and then it became a reliable 2-3 million seller. 

For Dread, I think the timing is right. The Switch is selling crazy numbers, and its fanbase should be receptive to this kind of game. The crazy long development and years of rumors gives the game a sort of mystique to it. Nintendo also hasn't been releasing that many games lately, particularly those appealing to the "hardcore" audience, so I think the audience is a bit hungry for games. 

I think it's pretty likely this will exceed the sales of all past Metroid games.



To put things in perspective on pricing. Super Metroid released at $70 in 1994, which is roughly equivalent to $127 in today's USD. 

Fusion released at $30 in 2002 or roughly $45 in today's USD. 

Although prices dropped faster then than now. 

I think $60 is a fine for the fifth mainline Metroid game. 

Besides, Nintendo games retain their value pretty well. I know many people who aren't core Nintendo fans who buy Nintendo's games on whims knowing that they can resell it for 80% of its value if they wished.

This isn't true for the indie metroidvanias that people are comparing this to price-wise, some of which are digital only.

Last edited by sc94597 - on 19 June 2021

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sc94597 said:

To put things in perspective on pricing. Super Metroid released at $70 in 1994, which is roughly equivalent to $127 in today's USD. 

Fusion released at $30 in 2002 or roughly $45 in today's USD. 

Although prices dropped faster then than now. 

I think $60 is a fine for the fifth mainline Metroid game. 

Besides, Nintendo games retain their value pretty well. I know many people who aren't core Nintendo fans who buy Nintendo's games on whims knowing that they can resell it for 80% of its value if they wished.

This isn't true for the indie metroidvanias that people are comparing this to price-wise, some of which are digital only.

Snes cartridges were very expensive back in the day, and this isn't a technology pushing expensive budget game that Super Metroid was back in 1994.  Capcom didn't charge $60 when they started making new Mega Man games, and this kind of feels like that maybe a bit more.  I personally think the game should be $40, but the $60 price point isn't going to stop me from getting it as long as the reviews are great as I expect.



rapsuperstar31 said:

Snes cartridges were very expensive back in the day, and this isn't a technology pushing expensive budget game that Super Metroid was back in 1994.  Capcom didn't charge $60 when they started making new Mega Man games, and this kind of feels like that maybe a bit more.  I personally think the game should be $40, but the $60 price point isn't going to stop me from getting it as long as the reviews are great as I expect.

Sure, but the game is half the price of Super Metroid when accounting for the devaluation of the dollar since 1994. And while Super Metroid was an "expensive budget game" for 1994 standards, it only had 15 people working on it. "Expensive budget" for 1994 standards is pretty much 'AA' at best for 2021 standards. Mercury Steam alone has 160 employees and they only seem to work on one title at a time. 

Not to shade Capcom, but Nintendo games always hold value longer than their games do. In a year  I can probably buy Resident Evil Village for half price new, while Animal Crossing (a game released a year ago) is still $50 new and $40 used. 

Last edited by sc94597 - on 19 June 2021

Metroid Prime on GameCube sits at 2.84 million units. I think Metroid Dread can surpass that due to the "Switch Effect". 3 million is pretty much the bare minimum I think. 3.25-3.75 million would be more of my prediction range.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

S.Peelman said:

I’m also thinking 2M to 2.5M. It’ll get the bonus for being on Switch but at the same time a penalty for being “just” a 2D sidescroller. So that means it’ll end above the average for mainline, numbered Metroids, but won’t be the top selling.

EDIT: I forgot to mention, I don’t think the pricepoint, whether 40, 50 or 60 is going to matter very much either way. Fans will buy no matter what and the series itself is too much ‘core’ to be very attractive to ‘casuals’ regardless.

sc94597 said:

To put things in perspective on pricing. Super Metroid released at $70 in 1994, which is roughly equivalent to $127 in today's USD. 

Fusion released at $30 in 2002 or roughly $45 in today's USD. 

Although prices dropped faster then than now. 

I think $60 is a fine for the fifth mainline Metroid game. 

Besides, Nintendo games retain their value pretty well. I know many people who aren't core Nintendo fans who buy Nintendo's games on whims knowing that they can resell it for 80% of its value if they wished.

This isn't true for the indie metroidvanias that people are comparing this to price-wise, some of which are digital only.

Thank you two, finally. Finally some arguments to fight the cheapness. I don't understand how all this talk about how this is not worth 60 bucks even came up with. The remake of Link's Awakening was 60 bucks and nobody complained. This game is worth every penny. Metroid is well known beyond just the fanbase alone so I believe 3m is the minimum in the long run.



Gameplay > Graphics

Substance > Style

Art Direction > Realism

Voted for 3 million, which is something I hope to see. Pent-up demand and the Switch effect, two things people have mentioned, can hopefully help Dread reach 3 million and become the best selling Metroid game. By the way, I'm sure MP4 will outsell Dread. Would be cool for the top 2 best selling Metroid games to have originated on Switch.

I could se Dread landing in 2-2.5 territory, but I'm still holding out for 3 million and buck the 1-2 million trend we usually see with Metroid.