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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How well do you think Metroid Dread will sell?

 

Predict Metroid Dread Sales

1M or less 3 3.23%
 
1M to 2M 21 22.58%
 
2M to 3M 34 36.56%
 
3M + 35 37.63%
 
Total:93
Mnementh said:

Quite likely this is some handling by people who want to see Nintendo fail because they think it somehow diminishes their own preferred platform and announcing these games Nintendo is everything but failing. So attacking one of the main announcement based on it being 2D and therefore not worth full price is something to spin the discussion.

How have you arrived in such conclusion? There is nothing even remotely close to animosity or any sort of gaming wars in this thread

The argument about pricing is relevant because this is the context of the market. Metroid is for a large part of Switch userbase a fairly unknown franchise and none of their titles released in the last 10 years have seen any sort of commotion

The most popular Metroidvanias in the market are indies, it was indies the ones to start a new wave in the genre, most of those indies are available on Switch and most of those indies are cheaper without comprising their quality

Nintendo brand and reselling value can maybe justify the 60 USD price tag, but to say the pricing and the fact this is a 2D release don't impact sales is nothing but delusion. Why are exactly people bringing up Link's Awakening to this discussion when even with the Switch brand and the release just after BOTW this game barely managed to outsold a Phantom Hourglass, a game released when Zelda franchise was much less popular? 

There was a precedent for a 2D non mainline Zelda selling about 5 million copies, and even Switch push couldn't make another 2D Zelda sell much more than that, maybe LA end selling 6 million once Switch is done but even then it's a increase of about 27% over Phantom Hourglass. It's surely a great increase, but not quite what was expected after BOTW elevated the IP for a whole other level. Why? Because LA is a 2D, a remake of a Game Boy game and is 60 USD

A increase of about 27% for Dread using a 1.8 million baseline would lead to ~2.3 million. Surely enough to a record breaking number, but there is a underlining indicator this could just go beyond if the price was more attractive. And unlike Zelda, there is no Metroid Prime 4 hype catapulting the IPs popularity, Metroid will need to fight with their existing strength alone. 



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More than 1 million cuz there's pent up demand for Metroid and everything sells well on Switch. Less than two million because at $60 it's overpriced and about $30-$40 more expensive to plenty of similar games on the market.

If they launched it at $30 or $40 I'd have said over 3 million for sure.

Possibly all these numbers are low just cuz Switch is so popular. So maybe it does sell like two and a half million cuz of Switch multiplier, but woulda sold like 5 million if reasonably priced.



IcaroRibeiro said:
Mnementh said:

Quite likely this is some handling by people who want to see Nintendo fail because they think it somehow diminishes their own preferred platform and announcing these games Nintendo is everything but failing. So attacking one of the main announcement based on it being 2D and therefore not worth full price is something to spin the discussion.

Metroid is for a large part of Switch userbase a fairly unknown franchise and none of their titles released in the last 10 years have seen any sort of commotion

Which ones didn't see any sort of commotion? The one that was recieved as a cruel joke by the fans because it pretty much shitted on everything the franchise was known for or the remake that skipped the Switch and launched on a dead system instead?



IcaroRibeiro said:
Mnementh said:

Quite likely this is some handling by people who want to see Nintendo fail because they think it somehow diminishes their own preferred platform and announcing these games Nintendo is everything but failing. So attacking one of the main announcement based on it being 2D and therefore not worth full price is something to spin the discussion.

How have you arrived in such conclusion? There is nothing even remotely close to animosity or any sort of gaming wars in this thread

The argument about pricing is relevant because this is the context of the market. Metroid is for a large part of Switch userbase a fairly unknown franchise and none of their titles released in the last 10 years have seen any sort of commotion

The most popular Metroidvanias in the market are indies, it was indies the ones to start a new wave in the genre, most of those indies are available on Switch and most of those indies are cheaper without comprising their quality

Nintendo brand and reselling value can maybe justify the 60 USD price tag, but to say the pricing and the fact this is a 2D release don't impact sales is nothing but delusion. Why are exactly people bringing up Link's Awakening to this discussion when even with the Switch brand and the release just after BOTW this game barely managed to outsold a Phantom Hourglass, a game released when Zelda franchise was much less popular? 

There was a precedent for a 2D non mainline Zelda selling about 5 million copies, and even Switch push couldn't make another 2D Zelda sell much more than that, maybe LA end selling 6 million once Switch is done but even then it's a increase of about 27% over Phantom Hourglass. It's surely a great increase, but not quite what was expected after BOTW elevated the IP for a whole other level. Why? Because LA is a 2D, a remake of a Game Boy game and is 60 USD

A increase of about 27% for Dread using a 1.8 million baseline would lead to ~2.3 million. Surely enough to a record breaking number, but there is a underlining indicator this could just go beyond if the price was more attractive. And unlike Zelda, there is no Metroid Prime 4 hype catapulting the IPs popularity, Metroid will need to fight with their existing strength alone. 

Yup exactly.

A full priced $60 2D Metroid versus a plethora of very good Metroidvanias (from retro style production vales all the way to stuff like Ori which has better than Metroid Dread production values as far as I can tell so far) all in the $15-$30 range.

People will pay more for Metroid than the rest simply because of the brand name, but not triple the price. $60 will absolutely affect sales, possibly by a few million. Just like Zelda:LA remake - that game could have sold millions more at $40 with all the Zelda hype in the BotW era but basically it had a great launch and then totally died off because nobody wants to pay $60 for a GB remake. Similarly, I expect Dread to have a great opening, at least for a Metroid game, and then sales to totally die off as everybody willing to pay $60 will have bought it at launch. And the crazy thing is Nintendo doesn't even react to the market when this happens. After the Zelda:LA remake sales died off (about two weeks after it released) I figured Nintendo would give it a price cut to $30 or $40 like a year later to pick up a few more million sales, but nope, just no reaction at all, so we can expect the same non-response from Nintendo when Dread's sales go quiet after launch week or at best after the holidays.

Nintendo is great but they sure make a lot of boneheaded decisions. 2D Metroid at $60 in 2021 is yet another one.



Slownenberg said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

How have you arrived in such conclusion? There is nothing even remotely close to animosity or any sort of gaming wars in this thread

The argument about pricing is relevant because this is the context of the market. Metroid is for a large part of Switch userbase a fairly unknown franchise and none of their titles released in the last 10 years have seen any sort of commotion

The most popular Metroidvanias in the market are indies, it was indies the ones to start a new wave in the genre, most of those indies are available on Switch and most of those indies are cheaper without comprising their quality

Nintendo brand and reselling value can maybe justify the 60 USD price tag, but to say the pricing and the fact this is a 2D release don't impact sales is nothing but delusion. Why are exactly people bringing up Link's Awakening to this discussion when even with the Switch brand and the release just after BOTW this game barely managed to outsold a Phantom Hourglass, a game released when Zelda franchise was much less popular? 

There was a precedent for a 2D non mainline Zelda selling about 5 million copies, and even Switch push couldn't make another 2D Zelda sell much more than that, maybe LA end selling 6 million once Switch is done but even then it's a increase of about 27% over Phantom Hourglass. It's surely a great increase, but not quite what was expected after BOTW elevated the IP for a whole other level. Why? Because LA is a 2D, a remake of a Game Boy game and is 60 USD

A increase of about 27% for Dread using a 1.8 million baseline would lead to ~2.3 million. Surely enough to a record breaking number, but there is a underlining indicator this could just go beyond if the price was more attractive. And unlike Zelda, there is no Metroid Prime 4 hype catapulting the IPs popularity, Metroid will need to fight with their existing strength alone. 

Yup exactly.

A full priced $60 2D Metroid versus a plethora of very good Metroidvanias (from retro style production vales all the way to stuff like Ori which has better than Metroid Dread production values as far as I can tell so far) all in the $15-$30 range.

People will pay more for Metroid than the rest simply because of the brand name, but not triple the price. $60 will absolutely affect sales, possibly by a few million. Just like Zelda:LA remake - that game could have sold millions more at $40 with all the Zelda hype in the BotW era but basically it had a great launch and then totally died off because nobody wants to pay $60 for a GB remake. Similarly, I expect Dread to have a great opening, at least for a Metroid game, and then sales to totally die off as everybody willing to pay $60 will have bought it at launch. And the crazy thing is Nintendo doesn't even react to the market when this happens. After the Zelda:LA remake sales died off (about two weeks after it released) I figured Nintendo would give it a price cut to $30 or $40 like a year later to pick up a few more million sales, but nope, just no reaction at all, so we can expect the same non-response from Nintendo when Dread's sales go quiet after launch week or at best after the holidays.

Nintendo is great but they sure make a lot of boneheaded decisions. 2D Metroid at $60 in 2021 is yet another one.

It's not a bone headed decision, they are just aware it's good to keep the image that Nintendo games never go down in price is exactly the reason why they never go down their prices.  customers are used to either pay 60 USD or to not pay at all. If they start pricing cut their games B tier games then their evergreens can start losing steam, because customers will realize the moment nobody is buying anymore is the moment the prices go down 

Well, I hate this price policy but there is nothing to be done. They are selling Zelda SS for 60 USD with barely any improvement and again this will hurt their sales, but Nintendo is very well aware their branding is more important than sales. They aren't like Sony who is desperate to make PS owners to starting liking their IPs, for Nintendo a game losing sales is okay as long the few buyers loyaling buying their products (and paying 60 USD on regular basis) 



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IcaroRibeiro said:
Mnementh said:

Quite likely this is some handling by people who want to see Nintendo fail because they think it somehow diminishes their own preferred platform and announcing these games Nintendo is everything but failing. So attacking one of the main announcement based on it being 2D and therefore not worth full price is something to spin the discussion.

(1) How have you arrived in such conclusion? There is nothing even remotely close to animosity or any sort of gaming wars in this thread

(2) The argument about pricing is relevant because this is the context of the market. Metroid is for a large part of Switch userbase a fairly unknown franchise and none of their titles released in the last 10 years have seen any sort of commotion

The most popular Metroidvanias in the market are indies, it was indies the ones to start a new wave in the genre, most of those indies are available on Switch and most of those indies are cheaper without comprising their quality

Nintendo brand and reselling value can maybe justify the 60 USD price tag, but to say the pricing and the fact this is a 2D release don't impact sales is nothing but delusion. Why are exactly people bringing up Link's Awakening to this discussion when even with the Switch brand and the release just after BOTW this game barely managed to outsold a Phantom Hourglass, a game released when Zelda franchise was much less popular? 

There was a precedent for a 2D non mainline Zelda selling about 5 million copies, and even Switch push couldn't make another 2D Zelda sell much more than that, maybe LA end selling 6 million once Switch is done but even then it's a increase of about 27% over Phantom Hourglass. It's surely a great increase, but not quite what was expected after BOTW elevated the IP for a whole other level. Why? Because LA is a 2D, a remake of a Game Boy game and is 60 USD

A increase of about 27% for Dread using a 1.8 million baseline would lead to ~2.3 million. Surely enough to a record breaking number, but there is a underlining indicator this could just go beyond if the price was more attractive. And unlike Zelda, there is no Metroid Prime 4 hype catapulting the IPs popularity, Metroid will need to fight with their existing strength alone. 

(1) I'm not talking about this thread, but the argument is brought up on Twitter and Youtube often by persons not caring about Switch or Metroid in the slightest.

(2) The whole argument is based somehow on the idea, that 2D is somehow cheaper or something. But the reality is, 2D gameplay and 3D gameplay are just two different genres. New Super Mario Bros and NSMB Wii sold about 30 million copies, because the 3D Mario releases before just aren't the same. Nintendo then milked it to death so sales fell. The situation for Metroid is similar now. There was no 2D Metroid in nearly two decades, just Metroid games in a different genre (Metroid Prime). These are not the same genres, as Mario Odyssey and Mario Kart are not the same genre. The idea that 2D is bizarre, but explainable, as many publishers over the last years pushed the idea that graphical fidelity is innovation, because they lacked ideas in gameplay innovation. But the reality is, that 2D games are valid and distinct to 3D games. And similar to 3D games you can make simple and cheap ones or polished and expensive ones. So the idea that a game is not worth full price because of 2D is broken. I would say that a fully 3D game like Skyward Sword has a much harder way to explain the pricepoint than Metroid Dread. Because it doesn't add much. It is the same game. Every instance of FIFA makes incremental changes and new roster, but besides is the same game. And EA ask for full price and microtransactions on top. Metroid Dread is completely new game and looks quite polished. Full price for that is fine.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

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Slownenberg said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

How have you arrived in such conclusion? There is nothing even remotely close to animosity or any sort of gaming wars in this thread

The argument about pricing is relevant because this is the context of the market. Metroid is for a large part of Switch userbase a fairly unknown franchise and none of their titles released in the last 10 years have seen any sort of commotion

The most popular Metroidvanias in the market are indies, it was indies the ones to start a new wave in the genre, most of those indies are available on Switch and most of those indies are cheaper without comprising their quality

Nintendo brand and reselling value can maybe justify the 60 USD price tag, but to say the pricing and the fact this is a 2D release don't impact sales is nothing but delusion. Why are exactly people bringing up Link's Awakening to this discussion when even with the Switch brand and the release just after BOTW this game barely managed to outsold a Phantom Hourglass, a game released when Zelda franchise was much less popular? 

There was a precedent for a 2D non mainline Zelda selling about 5 million copies, and even Switch push couldn't make another 2D Zelda sell much more than that, maybe LA end selling 6 million once Switch is done but even then it's a increase of about 27% over Phantom Hourglass. It's surely a great increase, but not quite what was expected after BOTW elevated the IP for a whole other level. Why? Because LA is a 2D, a remake of a Game Boy game and is 60 USD

A increase of about 27% for Dread using a 1.8 million baseline would lead to ~2.3 million. Surely enough to a record breaking number, but there is a underlining indicator this could just go beyond if the price was more attractive. And unlike Zelda, there is no Metroid Prime 4 hype catapulting the IPs popularity, Metroid will need to fight with their existing strength alone. 

Yup exactly.

A full priced $60 2D Metroid versus a plethora of very good Metroidvanias (from retro style production vales all the way to stuff like Ori which has better than Metroid Dread production values as far as I can tell so far) all in the $15-$30 range.

People will pay more for Metroid than the rest simply because of the brand name, but not triple the price. $60 will absolutely affect sales, possibly by a few million. Just like Zelda:LA remake - that game could have sold millions more at $40 with all the Zelda hype in the BotW era but basically it had a great launch and then totally died off because nobody wants to pay $60 for a GB remake. Similarly, I expect Dread to have a great opening, at least for a Metroid game, and then sales to totally die off as everybody willing to pay $60 will have bought it at launch. And the crazy thing is Nintendo doesn't even react to the market when this happens. After the Zelda:LA remake sales died off (about two weeks after it released) I figured Nintendo would give it a price cut to $30 or $40 like a year later to pick up a few more million sales, but nope, just no reaction at all, so we can expect the same non-response from Nintendo when Dread's sales go quiet after launch week or at best after the holidays.

Nintendo is great but they sure make a lot of boneheaded decisions. 2D Metroid at $60 in 2021 is yet another one.

You keep saying that but it's not going to happen. You keep bringing in prices of metroid knock-offs but we are not talking about knock-offs. This is not a metroidvania game that, hmm well yeah, perhaps might scratch the itch of Metroid fans who want to have some time within their favorite genre. No! This is Metroid itself! This is the series that gave the name to this entire genre. If there is any series in the metroidvania genre that people really, really want to play then it is THIS Metroid game. You can bet your ass that the demand is big enough for this game. Also, consider how disappointed the entire gaming world was with Federation Force because it was not the Metroid game they wanted, you remember that, right? But this one is, and it's checking all the right boxes.

Side note, production values have nothing to do with prices at all. Otherwise Red Dead Redemption 2 should cost like 500€ minimum. Think about that for a second.



rapsuperstar31 said:
sc94597 said:

To put things in perspective on pricing. Super Metroid released at $70 in 1994, which is roughly equivalent to $127 in today's USD. 

Fusion released at $30 in 2002 or roughly $45 in today's USD. 

Although prices dropped faster then than now. 

I think $60 is a fine for the fifth mainline Metroid game. 

Besides, Nintendo games retain their value pretty well. I know many people who aren't core Nintendo fans who buy Nintendo's games on whims knowing that they can resell it for 80% of its value if they wished.

This isn't true for the indie metroidvanias that people are comparing this to price-wise, some of which are digital only.

Snes cartridges were very expensive back in the day, and this isn't a technology pushing expensive budget game that Super Metroid was back in 1994.  Capcom didn't charge $60 when they started making new Mega Man games, and this kind of feels like that maybe a bit more.  I personally think the game should be $40, but the $60 price point isn't going to stop me from getting it as long as the reviews are great as I expect.

This game has way higher production values than Mega Man 11. It's budget was easily way higher and I'm confident it's quality is too, looking at Samus Returns.



Mnementh said:

(1) I'm not talking about this thread, but the argument is brought up on Twitter and Youtube often by persons not caring about Switch or Metroid in the slightest.

(2) The whole argument is based somehow on the idea, that 2D is somehow cheaper or something. But the reality is, 2D gameplay and 3D gameplay are just two different genres. New Super Mario Bros and NSMB Wii sold about 30 million copies, because the 3D Mario releases before just aren't the same. Nintendo then milked it to death so sales fell. The situation for Metroid is similar now. There was no 2D Metroid in nearly two decades, just Metroid games in a different genre (Metroid Prime). These are not the same genres, as Mario Odyssey and Mario Kart are not the same genre. The idea that 2D is bizarre, but explainable, as many publishers over the last years pushed the idea that graphical fidelity is innovation, because they lacked ideas in gameplay innovation. But the reality is, that 2D games are valid and distinct to 3D games. And similar to 3D games you can make simple and cheap ones or polished and expensive ones. So the idea that a game is not worth full price because of 2D is broken. I would say that a fully 3D game like Skyward Sword has a much harder way to explain the pricepoint than Metroid Dread. Because it doesn't add much. It is the same game. Every instance of FIFA makes incremental changes and new roster, but besides is the same game. And EA ask for full price and microtransactions on top. Metroid Dread is completely new game and looks quite polished. Full price for that is fine.

1) Oh, ok then

2) 2D are cheaper to produce, but that's not the point. The point is the perceiving value of a 3D game is overall higher than a 2D game, you can bring the 2-3 Nintendo games the are exception to this rule, but it doesn't change the overall market perception that 3D games are the true blockbusters in the industry. Maybe for you 2D game worth the same as 3D games, but I assure you not everyone share this view.



IcaroRibeiro said:
Mnementh said:

(1) I'm not talking about this thread, but the argument is brought up on Twitter and Youtube often by persons not caring about Switch or Metroid in the slightest.

(2) The whole argument is based somehow on the idea, that 2D is somehow cheaper or something. But the reality is, 2D gameplay and 3D gameplay are just two different genres. New Super Mario Bros and NSMB Wii sold about 30 million copies, because the 3D Mario releases before just aren't the same. Nintendo then milked it to death so sales fell. The situation for Metroid is similar now. There was no 2D Metroid in nearly two decades, just Metroid games in a different genre (Metroid Prime). These are not the same genres, as Mario Odyssey and Mario Kart are not the same genre. The idea that 2D is bizarre, but explainable, as many publishers over the last years pushed the idea that graphical fidelity is innovation, because they lacked ideas in gameplay innovation. But the reality is, that 2D games are valid and distinct to 3D games. And similar to 3D games you can make simple and cheap ones or polished and expensive ones. So the idea that a game is not worth full price because of 2D is broken. I would say that a fully 3D game like Skyward Sword has a much harder way to explain the pricepoint than Metroid Dread. Because it doesn't add much. It is the same game. Every instance of FIFA makes incremental changes and new roster, but besides is the same game. And EA ask for full price and microtransactions on top. Metroid Dread is completely new game and looks quite polished. Full price for that is fine.

1) Oh, ok then

2) 2D are cheaper to produce, but that's not the point. The point is the perceiving value of a 3D game is overall higher than a 2D game, you can bring the 2-3 Nintendo games the are exception to this rule, but it doesn't change the overall market perception that 3D games are the true blockbusters in the industry. Maybe for you 2D game worth the same as 3D games, but I assure you not everyone share this view.

The perceived value is prceived differently by people. I am wary of devs that point out their super duper shiny models and lots of polygons, that is often a sign of shitty production as if the devs perceive their polygons as the most important thing, that usually means the areas that are actually important are neglected. As I am not a fan of metroidvania or platformers in general, let me show an example closer to my heart: looking at it Child of Light has a much higher value than this 'I kill Chaos' shit Square showed off a few days ago. Hell, Octopath Traveler has much higher value, and now that I think about it, the same shit about the 2DHD-style makes it not worth full price was already pulled for Octopath.

Nope, a game isn't automatically worth more if it switches from 2D to 3D or less if it is the other way around.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]