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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How well do you think Metroid Dread will sell?

 

Predict Metroid Dread Sales

1M or less 3 3.23%
 
1M to 2M 21 22.58%
 
2M to 3M 34 36.56%
 
3M + 35 37.63%
 
Total:93

@Ninten78 I'd be shocked if they don't have their usual direct in September to give another push for their holiday titles and show off a bit of 2022 titles.

@curl-6 Exactly! Link's Awakening is on the cusp of being the best selling 2D Zelda. I'd be shocked if we don't see a similar phenomenon happen with Dread this holiday.



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Mnementh said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

The problem is the are MORE people are willing to perceive value in 3D games compared to 2D games than people than people willing to see equal value in 2D and 3D games. Octopath Traveller offers us a over 70 hours journey play-trough portraying 8 different characters each one with a well written and enjoyable story, different gaming mechanics, an open-world map, a fairly well smart and balanced battle system that adjusts automatically to your party to grant you a smooth experience and learning curve

It's probably the best RPG released in 2018, very likely best RPG released in 4 or 5 years in every aspect I can think except graphics and polygons, but it's 2D nature and retro graphics (combined with the old school turn based combat) very likely prevent it to archive anything higher than 1.5 million copies

OT is very similar to Dread imo, both are unapologetically old school, and they are using all their classic mechanics as their raw force and this indeed work, or at least secure some some ground in a market full of 3D games popping up every week, but they will never have the same potential of those 3D games, that's the sad reality 

Maybe people don't see worth in a game, because it foregoes 3D. That is their loss. But then they shouldn't claim that the game isn't worth 60$, just that it isn't worth 60$ to them. I feel like a lot of games aren't worth that price to me. Still, I can accept that these games offer this value to other people. That is what I am discussing. Judging a game on 2D vs. 3D is a very shallow view.

I could easily declare Marvel's Avengers isn't worth $60, or Fallout 76, or Outriders or the Tomb Raider reboot. And I could give this some foundation. But do you really think we can have a serious gaming discussion, if everyone says each game he for some reason dislikes isn't worth the asking price? If people dislike that Metroid Dread is 2D and they don't want it for that reason, that is fine, just say so. But claiming it is not worth it because - reasons - is disingenious. Why should a 2D game not worth a full price, but a game that is released buggy, or lacking content or is too much streamlined or is linear is worth 60$ or even recently 70$? That does not make sense at all. The point here is, that if people said they don't like 2D games it is all fine, after all it is a different genre as I explained before. But claiming it is not worth it's price is not just stating their own opinion, but undermining the value others see in it.

OK. So the TDLR version is you are just annoyed because people on internet don't think a 2D game is worth 60 bucks? I don't get the reason behind your annoyance, I mean if you want to say Avengers is worth only 5 USD be my guest, I wouldn't really care 

Back to thread main topic. Yes, in 2021 gamers don't see the same value for 2D games they see on 3D games, and this will halve sales potential for Dread. If the game can outsell Prime 1 and end close to 3 million regardless of the price and the fact it's a classic side scroller we shall see once Nintendo reveals numbers, but I disagree with the premise that prices won't affect sales for this game. It would absolutely sells better if it was 40 or 30 USD



curl-6 said:

If Link's Awakening can sell 5.5 million at $60, I see no reason why full price would prevent Dread becoming the best selling Metroid.

We already had 2D Zeldas selling 5 million. LA sales are disappointing, it was the game released after BOTW by far the most popular Zelda of all time

Poor Metroid Dread will launch after almost a decade of a franchise collecting dust. People here are screaming Zelda when Metroid situation is much closer to Kirby lol 



IcaroRibeiro said:
curl-6 said:

If Link's Awakening can sell 5.5 million at $60, I see no reason why full price would prevent Dread becoming the best selling Metroid.

We already had 2D Zeldas selling 5 million. LA sales are disappointing, it was the game released after BOTW by far the most popular Zelda of all time

Poor Metroid Dread will launch after almost a decade of a franchise collecting dust. People here are screaming Zelda when Metroid situation is much closer to Kirby lol 

LA was a Gameboy remake while Dread is a new game, and Zelda never had the pent up demand for a quality new game that Metroid has built up. Never said it will sell as much or more than LA, but price will most likely not stop it outselling all prior Metroid games.



GoOnKid said:

I'm sorry but no, prduction values are irrelevant to the final price. A company can spend hundreds of millions on dollars on one product and at the same time only a few dollars on another product but still offer both for the same price if they want to. When you say platform userbase, branding, marketing and selling price, you mean demand and yes I agree with this very much. What defines the price is the expected demand, and Nintendo realizes that the demand for this game is very high, so they have zero reason to offer this game at a lower price. And yes, their approach to pricing is a strategic one. They don't drop prices like almost everybody else in the business because they simply don't want to, I also agree, and they have their reasons. Strong branding is a big reason behind it, you already said that as well. We actually agree on a lot, just not on the production values thing.

I'm confused, you say budget and production value have no correlation, but then agree with me when I say budget is defined by potential revenue? 

Remember revenue is nothing more than units vs selling price. The market behave in a way such as when you lower the price, the sales increase. Of course, this is not a simple equation, but this a market rule unless we are talking about Veblen's Goodies like let's say very rare limited editions

If a company is willing to keep their prices high even if it will thrown away sales they are doing so for 2 reasons:

a) Lowering the price won't drive enough sales to increase the profit margins. This is the reason why 90% of games launch full price, even if they suffer mandatory price cuts only 2 months later 

b) The company wants to keep a luxury image as much as possible even if it leads to smaller profits. This is the reason why dead games (sales-wise) never suffer price cuts,  like Astral Chain  any reason to keep selling it for 60 USD after 2 years? 

If Dread launched at 60 USD and then started selling for 40 USD after 6 months I'm sure it would have much bigger legs, bigger sales and bigger revenue, but Nintendo don't want to damage their image. 



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curl-6 said:

LA was a Gameboy remake 

If anything this was one of its biggest selling points. One thing is a straight port of a Wii U game released only 5 years ago like Pikmin 

Another thing entirely is a remake of a 20 years old fan favorite 2D Zelda built from the ground in a new enginee

And do you think the demand for Zelda haven't hit an all time high after BOTW? Dude look at the number of views of BOTW 2 teaser, and it barely have any information other than the fact we can now explore skies

A Warrior-like kind of game based on Zelda sold 4 million units, almost 4 times the previous entry made, a popularity entirely borrowed from BOTW

LA had everything played perfectly to be a stellar seller, after making 3 million on first quarter this forum went wild and people were predicting almost 10 million. 2 years later still on the 5 million range, just because it exhausted the pool of people willing to pay 60 USD and will only get residual sales, mostly from quick discounts Nintendo give from time to time



IcaroRibeiro said:
curl-6 said:

LA was a Gameboy remake 

If anything this was one of its biggest selling points. One thing is a straight port of a Wii U game released only 5 years ago like Pikmin 

Another thing entirely is a remake of a 20 years old fan favorite 2D Zelda built from the ground in a new enginee

And do you think the demand for Zelda haven't hit an all time high after BOTW? Dude look at the number of views of BOTW 2 teaser, and it barely have any information other than the fact we can now explore skies

A Warrior-like kind of game based on Zelda sold 4 million units, almost 4 times the previous entry made, a popularity entirely borrowed from BOTW

LA had everything played perfectly to be a stellar seller, after making 3 million on first quarter this forum went wild and people were predicting almost 10 million. 2 years later still on the 5 million range, just because it exhausted the pool of people willing to pay 60 USD and will only get residual sales, mostly from quick discounts Nintendo give from time to time

I disagree, being an old been-there-done-that game as opposed to a fresh new one is a minus for sales potential, not a plus, especially when you're asking for $60 for a remake of a Gameboy game.

And none of that contradicts my point that Dread absolutely has the potential to be the highest selling Metroid. I see absolutely no reason why it can't outsell Prime at 2.8 million.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 19 June 2021

IcaroRibeiro said:
curl-6 said:

If Link's Awakening can sell 5.5 million at $60, I see no reason why full price would prevent Dread becoming the best selling Metroid.

We already had 2D Zeldas selling 5 million. LA sales are disappointing, it was the game released after BOTW by far the most popular Zelda of all time

Poor Metroid Dread will launch after almost a decade of a franchise collecting dust. People here are screaming Zelda when Metroid situation is much closer to Kirby lol 

I think you’re the ONLY person here who thinks LA sales are disappointing.

For a $60 remake of a Game Boy game, it has already outsold the original version and if it sells another 1.03 million it’ll pass the original Legend of Zelda for the best selling 2D game in the franchise. How is that possibly disappointing?



curl-6 said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

If anything this was one of its biggest selling points. One thing is a straight port of a Wii U game released only 5 years ago like Pikmin 

Another thing entirely is a remake of a 20 years old fan favorite 2D Zelda built from the ground in a new enginee

And do you think the demand for Zelda haven't hit an all time high after BOTW? Dude look at the number of views of BOTW 2 teaser, and it barely have any information other than the fact we can now explore skies

A Warrior-like kind of game based on Zelda sold 4 million units, almost 4 times the previous entry made, a popularity entirely borrowed from BOTW

LA had everything played perfectly to be a stellar seller, after making 3 million on first quarter this forum went wild and people were predicting almost 10 million. 2 years later still on the 5 million range, just because it exhausted the pool of people willing to pay 60 USD and will only get residual sales, mostly from quick discounts Nintendo give from time to time

I disagree, being an old been-there-done-that game as opposed to a fresh new one is a minus for sales potential, not a plus, especially when you're asking for $60 for a remake of a Gameboy game.

Maybe for you, I assure it's not true for the market. The best selling Zelda on 3DS was Ocarina of Time remastered, more than A Link Between Worlds a "fresh new game" 

Wind Waker HD on the Wii U (biggest flop) sold 2.3 million copies, Majora's Mask sold over 3 million copies. Overall Zelda franchise has a history of selling very well their remasters

LA being built from the ground as a new game was definitely a plus. It didn't sell accordingly just because it's a 2D game, and the demand for 2D Zelda is just not as big as 3D Zelda as Ocarina of time and A Link Between Worlds example showed us 



IcaroRibeiro said:
curl-6 said:

I disagree, being an old been-there-done-that game as opposed to a fresh new one is a minus for sales potential, not a plus, especially when you're asking for $60 for a remake of a Gameboy game.

Maybe for you, I assure it's not true for the market. The best selling Zelda on 3DS was Ocarina of Time remastered, more than A Link Between Worlds a "fresh new game" 

Wind Waker HD on the Wii U (biggest flop) sold 2.3 million copies, Majora's Mask sold over 3 million copies. Overall Zelda franchise has a history of selling very well their remasters

LA being built from the ground as a new game was definitely a plus. It didn't sell accordingly just because it's a 2D game, and the demand for 2D Zelda is just not as big as 3D Zelda as Ocarina of time and A Link Between Worlds example showed us 

I said sales potential, not real-world performance in 100% of cases. But this is frankly all beside my point.

Again, my point is this; Metroid Dread has both immense pent up demand, strong reception so far, and the Switch Effect on its side, whereas I see no reason why it's price or the fact it's 2D will prevent it selling more than prior Metroids where so many other franchises have exceeded their previous records on Switch. If Pikmin and Xenoblade can do it, so can Metroid.