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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Is monster hunter rise going to be the best selling 3rd party game ever on a Nintendo console

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kazuyamishima on 30 March 2021
Agente42 said:

COD, Final Fantasy, GTA, Red Dead, Skyrim. What else surpasses 10M sales in a single SKU, third party?

The multiplatform way carries an illusion of big sales, but in the better case scenario, are divided by 2. 

PS4 has 7 physical games with this metric.

It's not easy to archive 

The Annual Fifa

The Witcher 3

Fallout 4

Minecraft

And possible an Ubisoft game.

And possible a few more since the system sold 1.7+ Billion games already.

But is difficult to know since Sony and some publishers don’t give specific data about sales.

With Rise there is a high possibility it will reach 10+ million units sold WW. 



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curl-6 on 30 March 2021
Darwinianevolution said:

I was going to say it wouldn't beat Minecraft's total sales on Nintendo systems, but after checking it, i think it already has? So yeah, only Just Dance 3 and Capcom making an "ultimate" version stand in the way of becoming that.

I think an "Ultimate" version can be safely incorporated into total sales the same way GOTY editions and such always are.



mjk45 on 30 March 2021
Dulfite said:
pikashoe said:

Considering world is at over 16.8 million as of the December 2020 this seems like an awful prediction. Especially with the switch being so much more popular than the ps4 in Japan. I'm not expecting this to sell as much as world but 7.5 seems way to low, 10 is the floor for this one. 

World released on three platforms so far (who knows, they may have an upgraded version in the works for PS5/Series X/PC). If you averaged let's say 17.5 million MH world sales (it's been some months since 12/20) that's 5.83 million MH world sold per system on average. So if MH Rise sold 7.5 million on Switch then it would have sold considerably more per console released on (1) than MH World did (the PC sales being TBD for now since Rise hasn't released there yet). So 7.5 million on Switch alone is kind of crazy!

The leaked Capcom data had World at 16.4 million at the time and the platform breakdown was in round numbers PS4 8.7m PC 5.95 XB 1.7m

 Here's the link to the more detailed list, just ignore the selective PC tops platform sales headline nonsense  they exclude Japanese sales to get that heading'

 https://gamingbolt.com/monster-hunter-world-on-pc-outselling-the-ps4-version-outside-of-japan-as-per-leaked-sales-figures



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Otter on 31 March 2021

It's the flip of a coin. We know it's going to do 5m minimum in Japan, 8m WW seems like the floor but no idea what the ceiling is. Its western performance we really know nothing about. Especially since it's not a direct sequel to World, so it may not inherit all of Worlds sale growth which I think was influenced in large by world scale and cutting edge graphics presentation.



Manlytears on 31 March 2021

surpass 10M copies!? it's possible, but not "for sure". i can see it doing +8M, but +10M... not impossible, or very hard to achive, but certainly not a given.



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The_Liquid_Laser on 31 March 2021

MH Rise will be the best selling third party game on the Switch that we will actually get hard numbers for.  Unfortunately, we will probably never know how much Minecraft has sold on the Switch and that would be MH Rise's main competition.  I am quite confident Minecraft on Switch will eventually sell more than 10M copies if it hasn't done so already.



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Kakadu18 on 31 March 2021
Agente42 said:

COD, Final Fantasy, GTA, Red Dead, Skyrim. What else surpasses 10M sales in a single SKU, third party?

The multiplatform way carries an illusion of big sales, but in the better case scenario, are divided by 2. 

PS4 has 7 physical games with this metric.

It's not easy to archive 

No Final Fantasy ever sold 10mil in a single SKU.



Mnementh on 31 March 2021
The_Liquid_Laser said:

MH Rise will be the best selling third party game on the Switch that we will actually get hard numbers for.  Unfortunately, we will probably never know how much Minecraft has sold on the Switch and that would be MH Rise's main competition.  I am quite confident Minecraft on Switch will eventually sell more than 10M copies if it hasn't done so already.

Yeah, I also feel like Minecraft potentially is a pretty big seller. Besides that MHR should easily the best sellign third-party on Switch. And 10M is possible, although it strongly depends on it's legs and how well received it is in the west.



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mjk45 on 31 March 2021
Shadow1980 said:

Hard to say. Monster Hunter is a very popular franchise, no doubt, especially in Japan where it is consistently one of the top three most popular third-party series (along with Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest) and a reliable system-seller. World is by far the best-selling game in the series at 16.8M copies, but it was a multiplatform game and we have no clue what the platform split is. All we know beyond the global total is that it did well enough to make it into the Top 10 of 2018 in the U.S. (overall and for both the PS4 & XBO individually) and was the best-selling PS4 game ever in Japan. It was also the first and only entry in the series where the clear majority of sales came from outside of Japan, which is why it sold as well as it did. While previous MH games never sold over 2M copies outside of Japan, World put up outstanding numbers outside Japan. Even though it was the best-selling PS4 game ever in Japan, that's not saying much as it apparently didn't even quite hit 3M even when including digital (nowhere close to #1 in the series in Japan), which would leave at least 13M for elsewhere.

But was that global success a fluke? Would it be possible to replicate on the Switch, a system dominated by first-party titles? Or is the outside-Japan audience for Monster Hunter mainly on PlayStation & Xbox? Will Switch owners in North America and Europe bite like PS4 & XBO owners did with World? Rise is going to be very popular in Japan, where it will almost certainly go on to become to be the best-selling third-party game ever on the Switch, and possibly even the best-selling third-party game ever in Japan (MH Freedom 3 on the PSP holds the current title with 4.5M copies sold at retail). But in North America and Europe, will it have widespread popularity like World did? There's just no way of knowing. It's going to be a huge hit. It's going to be the best-selling non-Nintendo game on the Switch, and definitely one of the best-selling third-party games ever on any Nintendo system. But will it sell well over 10M copies worldwide and dethrone Just Dance 3? That may not be an easy task. Not all records are made to be broken.

The PS4 Japanese numbers were 3.17million, there's a platform breakdown in my earlier post and also a link to more detailed numbers.



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Paatar on 31 March 2021
Dulfite said:
pikashoe said:

Considering world is at over 16.8 million as of the December 2020 this seems like an awful prediction. Especially with the switch being so much more popular than the ps4 in Japan. I'm not expecting this to sell as much as world but 7.5 seems way to low, 10 is the floor for this one. 

World released on three platforms so far (who knows, they may have an upgraded version in the works for PS5/Series X/PC). If you averaged let's say 17.5 million MH world sales (it's been some months since 12/20) that's 5.83 million MH world sold per system on average. So if MH Rise sold 7.5 million on Switch then it would have sold considerably more per console released on (1) than MH World did (the PC sales being TBD for now since Rise hasn't released there yet). So 7.5 million on Switch alone is kind of crazy!

You can make the same argument either way by using the same point you just made. Aligning launches, World did 5m on launch with 2 platforms (PC came later) and Rise did 4m on launch with 1 platform. That could be used to argue that Rise will do better than World. 10m is not out of reach.  



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