Thanks! I didn't see that.

I guess digital was a bit higher on PS4 in Japan than Famitsu's estimates (about 37% by the looks of it, since it was about 2M at retail). No regional split for the XBO version, but considering how much of Xbox's global market share is from the U.S., it probably did at least a million in the U.S. just on the XBO, which if true would bring U.S. console sales to ~3.4M. Overall, non-Japanese console sales of MHW total about 7.2M copies.

I still wonder what this split means for Rise. Just because that many PS4 & XBO owners bought MHW doesn't necessarily mean Rise will do that well on the Switch. It will probably do at least as well as World in Japan, maybe even substantially better since the Switch is a vastly more popular platform than the PS4 in Japan, and it really could potentially challenge Freedom 3's 4.5M total. It's just a matter of it selling at least 5-6M everywhere else. I think 7M is probably the floor for global sales of the Switch version, but 10M+ is definitely possible. It all depends on if World's success outside of Japan wasn't a fluke and/or wasn't tied to it being on PS4 & XBO.

If it doesn't hit the 10M mark on the Switch, the PC version will definitely push it over the line.

EDIT: Also, the PC version didn't sell all that well in Japan. I guess PC gaming really isn't that big there.

Folks, Rise won't just do better than World in Japan.. it will outsell World by end of April/early May. World had a very quick drop and disappeared from the Top 30 by the summer time in Japan. This has to do with the PS4 already being in decline in terms of hardware and not really allowing the game to reach it's real potential. 

World launch - 2 million in Japan

World legs - 1.1 million in Japan

Monster Hunter World Legs:

Famitsu Sales: Week 5, 2018 (Jan 29 - Feb 04) - 223.274 (-83%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 6, 2018 (Feb 05 - Feb 11) - 114.740 (-49%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 7, 2018 (Feb 12 - Feb 18) - 85.762 (-25%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 8, 2018 (Feb 19 - Feb 25) - 54.915 (-36%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 9, 2018 (Feb 26 - Mar 04) - 38.504 (-30%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 10, 2018 (Mar 05 - Mar 11) - 24.351 (-37%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 11, 2018 (Mar 12 - Mar 18) - 14.610 (-40%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 12, 2018 (Mar 19 - Mar 25) - 10.924 (-25%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 13, 2018 (Mar 26 - Apr 01) - 7.480 (-32%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 14, 2018 (Apr 02 - Apr 08) - 4.359 (-42%)

TOTAL: 578.919

World had a very strong launch on the PS4, but the legs were not good compared to previous Monster Hunter games in Japan. 

There is enough signs that Rise will outsell the best selling 3DS Monster Hunter game - Monster Hunter 3

Monster Hunter 3 Legs:

Media Create Sales: Week 38, 2013 (Sep 16 - Sep 22) - 473.739 (-72%)

Media Create Sales: Week 39, 2013 (Sep 23 - Sep 29) - 213.278 (-55%)

Media Create Sales: Week 40, 2013 (Sep 30 - Oct 06) - 140.538 (-34%)

Media Create Sales: Week 41, 2013 (Oct 07 - Oct 13) - 110.208 (-22%)

Media Create Sales: Week 42, 2013 (Oct 14 - Oct 20) - 104.394 (-5%)

Media Create Sales: Week 43, 2013 (Oct 21 - Oct 27) - 68.160 (-35%)

Media Create Sales: Week 44, 2013 (Oct 28 - Nov 03) - 46.729 (-31%)

Media Create Sales: Week 45, 2013 (Nov 04 - Nov 10) - 40.205 (-14%)

Media Create Sales: Week 46, 2013 (Nov 11 - Nov 17) - 26.358 (-34%)

Media Create Sales: Week 47, 2013 (Nov 18 - Nov 24) - 21.120 (-20%)

TOTAL: 1.244.729

As we can see MH3 managed to sell more in the 10 weeks after launch than World sold lifetime legs

Switch is currently in it's peak year in terms of hardware and software, so by the 10th Week Rise is on the market I anticipate it will be still in the 30K range, as previous 3DS entries didn't really get additional content to push the game's legs. It will be a game that will get a boost at Obon and later Christmas, so it could very easily be over 4 million shipped + digital by the end of the year in Japan alone. This will be inline with the performance of other Switch evergreens in terms of shipped + digital numbers. 

It'll easily outsell it MHW is easy to circumvent , and I'm gonna reiterate it too sort of , Switch userbase is twice if not more than PS4 already.

Compared to PS4's userbase in 2018 when world launched, probably 3x lol

No Final Fantasy ever sold 10mil in a single SKU.

The original PS1 final fantasy VII - 10.02 (this is not counting, PC, PSN, xbox, NS etc

You're correct that 2nd party doesn't really exist in the industry, but what actually solidifies if a game is first party or not isn't publishing rights or who developed the game, it's IP control. 

Nintendo confirmed this when they listed Astral Chain explicitly as a first party IP even before owning the entire IP. If you own a controlling share (which Nintendo do because they own parts of the other companies invested in Pokemon) or half or more of an IP, it's first party to Nintendo. So yes, in this scenario, Just Dance 3 is the best selling third party.