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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Is monster hunter rise going to be the best selling 3rd party game ever on a Nintendo console

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Shadow1980 said:

Hard to say. Monster Hunter is a very popular franchise, no doubt, especially in Japan where it is consistently one of the top three most popular third-party series (along with Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest) and a reliable system-seller. World is by far the best-selling game in the series at 16.8M copies, but it was a multiplatform game and we have no clue what the platform split is. All we know beyond the global total is that it did well enough to make it into the Top 10 of 2018 in the U.S. (overall and for both the PS4 & XBO individually) and was the best-selling PS4 game ever in Japan. It was also the first and only entry in the series where the clear majority of sales came from outside of Japan, which is why it sold as well as it did. While previous MH games never sold over 2M copies outside of Japan, World put up outstanding numbers outside Japan. Even though it was the best-selling PS4 game ever in Japan, that's not saying much as it apparently didn't even quite hit 3M even when including digital (nowhere close to #1 in the series in Japan), which would leave at least 13M for elsewhere.

But was that global success a fluke? Would it be possible to replicate on the Switch, a system dominated by first-party titles? Or is the outside-Japan audience for Monster Hunter mainly on PlayStation & Xbox? Will Switch owners in North America and Europe bite like PS4 & XBO owners did with World? Rise is going to be very popular in Japan, where it will almost certainly go on to become to be the best-selling third-party game ever on the Switch, and possibly even the best-selling third-party game ever in Japan (MH Freedom 3 on the PSP holds the current title with 4.5M copies sold at retail). But in North America and Europe, will it have widespread popularity like World did? There's just no way of knowing. It's going to be a huge hit. It's going to be the best-selling non-Nintendo game on the Switch, and definitely one of the best-selling third-party games ever on any Nintendo system. But will it sell well over 10M copies worldwide and dethrone Just Dance 3? That may not be an easy task. Not all records are made to be broken.

The PS4 Japanese numbers were 3.17million, there's a platform breakdown in my earlier post and also a link to more detailed numbers.



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Dulfite said:
pikashoe said:

Considering world is at over 16.8 million as of the December 2020 this seems like an awful prediction. Especially with the switch being so much more popular than the ps4 in Japan. I'm not expecting this to sell as much as world but 7.5 seems way to low, 10 is the floor for this one. 

World released on three platforms so far (who knows, they may have an upgraded version in the works for PS5/Series X/PC). If you averaged let's say 17.5 million MH world sales (it's been some months since 12/20) that's 5.83 million MH world sold per system on average. So if MH Rise sold 7.5 million on Switch then it would have sold considerably more per console released on (1) than MH World did (the PC sales being TBD for now since Rise hasn't released there yet). So 7.5 million on Switch alone is kind of crazy!

You can make the same argument either way by using the same point you just made. Aligning launches, World did 5m on launch with 2 platforms (PC came later) and Rise did 4m on launch with 1 platform. That could be used to argue that Rise will do better than World. 10m is not out of reach.  



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If World launched with 5 million, then it's currently just over double that on PS4 + Xbone after three years according to the leaked numbers, so similar legs would see the Switch version a little over 8 million.
That would still put it above all but a handful of third party titles in Nintendo console history.
Still, I've learned to never underestimate the Switch so you never know.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

mjk45 said:

The PS4 Japanese numbers were 3.17million, there's a platform breakdown in my earlier post and also a link to more detailed numbers.

Thanks! I didn't see that.

I guess digital was a bit higher on PS4 in Japan than Famitsu's estimates (about 37% by the looks of it, since it was about 2M at retail). No regional split for the XBO version, but considering how much of Xbox's global market share is from the U.S., it probably did at least a million in the U.S. just on the XBO, which if true would bring U.S. console sales to ~3.4M. Overall, non-Japanese console sales of MHW total about 7.2M copies.

I still wonder what this split means for Rise. Just because that many PS4 & XBO owners bought MHW doesn't necessarily mean Rise will do that well on the Switch. It will probably do at least as well as World in Japan, maybe even substantially better since the Switch is a vastly more popular platform than the PS4 in Japan, and it really could potentially challenge Freedom 3's 4.5M total. It's just a matter of it selling at least 5-6M everywhere else. I think 7M is probably the floor for global sales of the Switch version, but 10M+ is definitely possible. It all depends on if World's success outside of Japan wasn't a fluke and/or wasn't tied to it being on PS4 & XBO.

If it doesn't hit the 10M mark on the Switch, the PC version will definitely push it over the line.

EDIT: Also, the PC version didn't sell all that well in Japan. I guess PC gaming really isn't that big there.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 31 March 2021

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Shadow1980 said:
mjk45 said:

The PS4 Japanese numbers were 3.17million, there's a platform breakdown in my earlier post and also a link to more detailed numbers.

Thanks! I didn't see that.

I guess digital was a bit higher on PS4 in Japan than Famitsu's estimates (about 37% by the looks of it, since it was about 2M at retail). No regional split for the XBO version, but considering how much of Xbox's global market share is from the U.S., it probably did at least a million in the U.S. just on the XBO, which if true would bring U.S. console sales to ~3.4M. Overall, non-Japanese console sales of MHW total about 7.2M copies.

I still wonder what this split means for Rise. Just because that many PS4 & XBO owners bought MHW doesn't necessarily mean Rise will do that well on the Switch. It will probably do at least as well as World in Japan, maybe even substantially better since the Switch is a vastly more popular platform than the PS4 in Japan, and it really could potentially challenge Freedom 3's 4.5M total. It's just a matter of it selling at least 5-6M everywhere else. I think 7M is probably the floor for global sales of the Switch version, but 10M+ is definitely possible. It all depends on if World's success outside of Japan wasn't a fluke and/or wasn't tied to it being on PS4 & XBO.

If it doesn't hit the 10M mark on the Switch, the PC version will definitely push it over the line.

EDIT: Also, the PC version didn't sell all that well in Japan. I guess PC gaming really isn't that big there.

PC did well in Asia though with 2.53M of the total 5.71 million coming from there, Japan is a different case where due to both it's video game history and work commute culture and space premium, consoles have cemented themselves into the social fabric much more than other places, it will be interesting to see if Asian sales start to pivot away from PC toward Switch in comparison to the PC /PS4 breakdown.



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Folks, Rise won't just do better than World in Japan.. it will outsell World by end of April/early May. World had a very quick drop and disappeared from the Top 30 by the summer time in Japan. This has to do with the PS4 already being in decline in terms of hardware and not really allowing the game to reach it's real potential. 

World launch - 2 million in Japan

World legs - 1.1 million in Japan

Monster Hunter World Legs:

Famitsu Sales: Week 5, 2018 (Jan 29 - Feb 04) - 223.274 (-83%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 6, 2018 (Feb 05 - Feb 11) - 114.740 (-49%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 7, 2018 (Feb 12 - Feb 18) - 85.762 (-25%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 8, 2018 (Feb 19 - Feb 25) - 54.915 (-36%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 9, 2018 (Feb 26 - Mar 04) - 38.504 (-30%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 10, 2018 (Mar 05 - Mar 11) - 24.351 (-37%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 11, 2018 (Mar 12 - Mar 18) - 14.610 (-40%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 12, 2018 (Mar 19 - Mar 25) - 10.924 (-25%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 13, 2018 (Mar 26 - Apr 01) - 7.480 (-32%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 14, 2018 (Apr 02 - Apr 08) - 4.359 (-42%)

TOTAL: 578.919

World had a very strong launch on the PS4, but the legs were not good compared to previous Monster Hunter games in Japan. 

There is enough signs that Rise will outsell the best selling 3DS Monster Hunter game - Monster Hunter 3

Monster Hunter 3 Legs:

Media Create Sales: Week 38, 2013 (Sep 16 - Sep 22) - 473.739 (-72%)

Media Create Sales: Week 39, 2013 (Sep 23 - Sep 29) - 213.278 (-55%)

Media Create Sales: Week 40, 2013 (Sep 30 - Oct 06) - 140.538 (-34%)

Media Create Sales: Week 41, 2013 (Oct 07 - Oct 13) - 110.208 (-22%)

Media Create Sales: Week 42, 2013 (Oct 14 - Oct 20) - 104.394 (-5%)

Media Create Sales: Week 43, 2013 (Oct 21 - Oct 27) - 68.160 (-35%)

Media Create Sales: Week 44, 2013 (Oct 28 - Nov 03) - 46.729 (-31%)

Media Create Sales: Week 45, 2013 (Nov 04 - Nov 10) - 40.205 (-14%)

Media Create Sales: Week 46, 2013 (Nov 11 - Nov 17) - 26.358 (-34%)

Media Create Sales: Week 47, 2013 (Nov 18 - Nov 24) - 21.120 (-20%)

TOTAL: 1.244.729

As we can see MH3 managed to sell more in the 10 weeks after launch than World sold lifetime legs

Switch is currently in it's peak year in terms of hardware and software, so by the 10th Week Rise is on the market I anticipate it will be still in the 30K range, as previous 3DS entries didn't really get additional content to push the game's legs. It will be a game that will get a boost at Obon and later Christmas, so it could very easily be over 4 million shipped + digital by the end of the year in Japan alone. This will be inline with the performance of other Switch evergreens in terms of shipped + digital numbers. 



Judging from launch week the answer is no. Just saw a tweet that it did less than World in Japan. Numbers are inbound any minute now.

Longevity should be better than world though 

Last edited by Otter - on 01 April 2021

noshten said:

Folks, Rise won't just do better than World in Japan.. it will outsell World by end of April/early May. World had a very quick drop and disappeared from the Top 30 by the summer time in Japan. This has to do with the PS4 already being in decline in terms of hardware and not really allowing the game to reach it's real potential. 

World launch - 2 million in Japan

World legs - 1.1 million in Japan

Monster Hunter World Legs:

Famitsu Sales: Week 5, 2018 (Jan 29 - Feb 04) - 223.274 (-83%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 6, 2018 (Feb 05 - Feb 11) - 114.740 (-49%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 7, 2018 (Feb 12 - Feb 18) - 85.762 (-25%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 8, 2018 (Feb 19 - Feb 25) - 54.915 (-36%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 9, 2018 (Feb 26 - Mar 04) - 38.504 (-30%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 10, 2018 (Mar 05 - Mar 11) - 24.351 (-37%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 11, 2018 (Mar 12 - Mar 18) - 14.610 (-40%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 12, 2018 (Mar 19 - Mar 25) - 10.924 (-25%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 13, 2018 (Mar 26 - Apr 01) - 7.480 (-32%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 14, 2018 (Apr 02 - Apr 08) - 4.359 (-42%)

TOTAL: 578.919

World had a very strong launch on the PS4, but the legs were not good compared to previous Monster Hunter games in Japan. 

There is enough signs that Rise will outsell the best selling 3DS Monster Hunter game - Monster Hunter 3

Monster Hunter 3 Legs:

Media Create Sales: Week 38, 2013 (Sep 16 - Sep 22) - 473.739 (-72%)

Media Create Sales: Week 39, 2013 (Sep 23 - Sep 29) - 213.278 (-55%)

Media Create Sales: Week 40, 2013 (Sep 30 - Oct 06) - 140.538 (-34%)

Media Create Sales: Week 41, 2013 (Oct 07 - Oct 13) - 110.208 (-22%)

Media Create Sales: Week 42, 2013 (Oct 14 - Oct 20) - 104.394 (-5%)

Media Create Sales: Week 43, 2013 (Oct 21 - Oct 27) - 68.160 (-35%)

Media Create Sales: Week 44, 2013 (Oct 28 - Nov 03) - 46.729 (-31%)

Media Create Sales: Week 45, 2013 (Nov 04 - Nov 10) - 40.205 (-14%)

Media Create Sales: Week 46, 2013 (Nov 11 - Nov 17) - 26.358 (-34%)

Media Create Sales: Week 47, 2013 (Nov 18 - Nov 24) - 21.120 (-20%)

TOTAL: 1.244.729

As we can see MH3 managed to sell more in the 10 weeks after launch than World sold lifetime legs

Switch is currently in it's peak year in terms of hardware and software, so by the 10th Week Rise is on the market I anticipate it will be still in the 30K range, as previous 3DS entries didn't really get additional content to push the game's legs. It will be a game that will get a boost at Obon and later Christmas, so it could very easily be over 4 million shipped + digital by the end of the year in Japan alone. This will be inline with the performance of other Switch evergreens in terms of shipped + digital numbers. 

I think everyone is expecting Rise to outsell World in Japan. The Ssitch uservase is 2x the PS4's and its portable, where MH excelled in the past (in Japan).



Otter said:
noshten said:

Folks, Rise won't just do better than World in Japan.. it will outsell World by end of April/early May. World had a very quick drop and disappeared from the Top 30 by the summer time in Japan. This has to do with the PS4 already being in decline in terms of hardware and not really allowing the game to reach it's real potential. 

World launch - 2 million in Japan

World legs - 1.1 million in Japan

Monster Hunter World Legs:

Famitsu Sales: Week 5, 2018 (Jan 29 - Feb 04) - 223.274 (-83%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 6, 2018 (Feb 05 - Feb 11) - 114.740 (-49%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 7, 2018 (Feb 12 - Feb 18) - 85.762 (-25%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 8, 2018 (Feb 19 - Feb 25) - 54.915 (-36%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 9, 2018 (Feb 26 - Mar 04) - 38.504 (-30%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 10, 2018 (Mar 05 - Mar 11) - 24.351 (-37%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 11, 2018 (Mar 12 - Mar 18) - 14.610 (-40%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 12, 2018 (Mar 19 - Mar 25) - 10.924 (-25%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 13, 2018 (Mar 26 - Apr 01) - 7.480 (-32%)

Famitsu Sales: Week 14, 2018 (Apr 02 - Apr 08) - 4.359 (-42%)

TOTAL: 578.919

World had a very strong launch on the PS4, but the legs were not good compared to previous Monster Hunter games in Japan. 

There is enough signs that Rise will outsell the best selling 3DS Monster Hunter game - Monster Hunter 3

Monster Hunter 3 Legs:

Media Create Sales: Week 38, 2013 (Sep 16 - Sep 22) - 473.739 (-72%)

Media Create Sales: Week 39, 2013 (Sep 23 - Sep 29) - 213.278 (-55%)

Media Create Sales: Week 40, 2013 (Sep 30 - Oct 06) - 140.538 (-34%)

Media Create Sales: Week 41, 2013 (Oct 07 - Oct 13) - 110.208 (-22%)

Media Create Sales: Week 42, 2013 (Oct 14 - Oct 20) - 104.394 (-5%)

Media Create Sales: Week 43, 2013 (Oct 21 - Oct 27) - 68.160 (-35%)

Media Create Sales: Week 44, 2013 (Oct 28 - Nov 03) - 46.729 (-31%)

Media Create Sales: Week 45, 2013 (Nov 04 - Nov 10) - 40.205 (-14%)

Media Create Sales: Week 46, 2013 (Nov 11 - Nov 17) - 26.358 (-34%)

Media Create Sales: Week 47, 2013 (Nov 18 - Nov 24) - 21.120 (-20%)

TOTAL: 1.244.729

As we can see MH3 managed to sell more in the 10 weeks after launch than World sold lifetime legs

Switch is currently in it's peak year in terms of hardware and software, so by the 10th Week Rise is on the market I anticipate it will be still in the 30K range, as previous 3DS entries didn't really get additional content to push the game's legs. It will be a game that will get a boost at Obon and later Christmas, so it could very easily be over 4 million shipped + digital by the end of the year in Japan alone. This will be inline with the performance of other Switch evergreens in terms of shipped + digital numbers. 

I think everyone is expecting Rise to outsell World in Japan. The Ssitch uservase is 2x the PS4's and its portable, where MH excelled in the past (in Japan).

It'll easily outsell it MHW is easy to circumvent , and I'm gonna reiterate it too sort of , Switch userbase is twice if not more than PS4 already.



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dx11332sega said:
Otter said:

I think everyone is expecting Rise to outsell World in Japan. The Ssitch uservase is 2x the PS4's and its portable, where MH excelled in the past (in Japan).

It'll easily outsell it MHW is easy to circumvent , and I'm gonna reiterate it too sort of , Switch userbase is twice if not more than PS4 already.

Compared to PS4's userbase in 2018 when world launched, probably 3x lol