Maybe around Q3 2022

Edit: changing it to Q4 2022 

Doesn't this thread already exist?

Imma say the Switch will ship around 23 Million consoles in 2021, not as much as last year since the AC craze has slowed down and I believe after peaking last year its hard to repeat and maintain that momentum of 28M sold in a year without beginning to approach saturation. However, 23 Million in a year is still amazing. So I would put the Switch by the end of 2021 right around 103 Million. I expect 17 Million sold in 2022 which would put the Switch around 120M by the end of 2022. Based off the current rate the PS4 is going, it's looking like the PS4 will fall just short of 120M since Sony isn't at all prioritizing selling the PS4 anymore and putting it in stock. So I think the end of 2022 seems the most likely timeframe of when the Switch will outsell the PS4.

It's crazy how quickly PS4 sales dropped off the cliff. Just a year ago it seemed inevitable and pretty much guaranteed the PS4 will outsell the Gameboy's 118.69M, now it is up in the air whether or not the PS4 will outsell the Gameboy.

It's mostly Sony's doing.

There are still some people out there that would like a PS4. If Sony cared about getting PS4s out there, they would've dropped the price and shipped more consoles. But they don't want to take bigger losses on the PS4 than they already have and they also want to focus on manufacturing the PS5.

Still, 115 million and counting is very high. PS5 probably won't sell that much in its lifetime, or might just barely manage it.

I think the Switch will outsell the PS4 by the first half of 2023. It could happen in 2022, though.

ps4 sales have tanked and Nintendo still has the ability to price cut the Switch. Add in Monster Hunter Rise and more Pokemon... I'm going with 2022.

Well, it will almost certainly happen in 2022 and it may even happen before the holiday period.

I'd say that's a bit too optimistic. I doubt the Switch will sell 35mil+ in this 10 month period even with a pro and a bunch of software, but by the end of 2022 seems like a safe bet.

I meant to say ps4, not ps5 lol.

If they could build and ship the units needed within the 12 months of 2021 (Jan 1st - Dec 31st), I predict they could sell said units IF a significant (10+ million) were the Switch Pros AND if they also came out with 2-3 mega heavy hitters Summer - December 31st 2021. By Mega heavy hitter I don't mean Bayo 3 or Xenoblade X port. I'm talking Botw 2, the next 3D Mario game, Metroid Prime 4, some new AAA IP, etc.

And before anyone starts to tell me how Metroid Prime 4 is small potatoes because 1-3 were, I believe that the game has been so hyped and talked about for so long that the demand for it is ripening like a fine wine. I predict there will be people that buy MP4 that would never have bought the game had it been an-every-2-to-3-years-we-release-a-new-game kind of series. I predict there will probably be a significant amount of hype-train-buyers that get it and hardly ever play it even. It's become the Shadow of Colossus of Nintendo games, or the next Project Rainfall situation. In fact, this goes into a larger theory I have:

I think Nintendo stops making games for series that sell decent to them (great to most studios), in order to build hype for those series so that when they DO come out with a new game they will sell absolutely massively. Metroid Prime will be the next example of that, I think. Kid Icarus could be another candidate down the road, so could Mother, maybe even Golden Sun. I think they've learned how to create enough demand for games so that when they do make them, they sell really well (therefore making the time/resources they invested into development to be efficiently spent).

Even with what you said 35mil+ just feels like a pipe dream and I'm one of those people that think the Switch has a good chance to sell 140mil+ lifetime. With a big Pokémon and most likely a Switch pro coming.