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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the Switch outsell the PS4?

 

When will the Switch outsell the PS4?

By end of 2022 58 62.37%
 
By end of 2023 19 20.43%
 
Never 5 5.38%
 
Total:82

I don't know when, but it definitely will.

Maybe 2022.



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Maybe around Q3 2022

Edit: changing it to Q4 2022 

Last edited by Link_Nines.XBC - on 04 March 2021

Doesn't this thread already exist?



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Imma say the Switch will ship around 23 Million consoles in 2021, not as much as last year since the AC craze has slowed down and I believe after peaking last year its hard to repeat and maintain that momentum of 28M sold in a year without beginning to approach saturation. However, 23 Million in a year is still amazing. So I would put the Switch by the end of 2021 right around 103 Million. I expect 17 Million sold in 2022 which would put the Switch around 120M by the end of 2022. Based off the current rate the PS4 is going, it's looking like the PS4 will fall just short of 120M since Sony isn't at all prioritizing selling the PS4 anymore and putting it in stock. So I think the end of 2022 seems the most likely timeframe of when the Switch will outsell the PS4.



It's crazy how quickly PS4 sales dropped off the cliff. Just a year ago it seemed inevitable and pretty much guaranteed the PS4 will outsell the Gameboy's 118.69M, now it is up in the air whether or not the PS4 will outsell the Gameboy.



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javi741 said:

It's crazy how quickly PS4 sales dropped off the cliff. Just a year ago it seemed inevitable and pretty much guaranteed the PS4 will outsell the Gameboy's 118.69M, now it is up in the air whether or not the PS4 will outsell the Gameboy.

It's mostly Sony's doing.

There are still some people out there that would like a PS4. If Sony cared about getting PS4s out there, they would've dropped the price and shipped more consoles. But they don't want to take bigger losses on the PS4 than they already have and they also want to focus on manufacturing the PS5.

Still, 115 million and counting is very high. PS5 probably won't sell that much in its lifetime, or might just barely manage it.

I think the Switch will outsell the PS4 by the first half of 2023. It could happen in 2022, though.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Q1 2023 Calendar year is the most accurate guess I can do.

Aaaa .... I can only reminisce of a time the year before the pandemic where people thought it'd be impossible for the Switch to surpass the PS4. Now, it's almost an inevitability.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

ps4 sales have tanked and Nintendo still has the ability to price cut the Switch. Add in Monster Hunter Rise and more Pokemon... I'm going with 2022.



Well, it will almost certainly happen in 2022 and it may even happen before the holiday period.



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Dulfite said:

If they barely release games between now and the end of 2022 it will beat ps5 by then I predict. If they release a decent amount of games, maybe Summer 2022. If they release a bunch of games and/or Switch Pro? By January 2022.

I'd say that's a bit too optimistic. I doubt the Switch will sell 35mil+ in this 10 month period even with a pro and a bunch of software, but by the end of 2022 seems like a safe bet.