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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the Switch outsell the PS4?

Dulfite on 04 March 2021
Matsku said:
Dulfite said:

I meant to say ps4, not ps5 lol.

If they could build and ship the units needed within the 12 months of 2021 (Jan 1st - Dec 31st), I predict they could sell said units IF a significant (10+ million) were the Switch Pros AND if they also came out with 2-3 mega heavy hitters Summer - December 31st 2021. By Mega heavy hitter I don't mean Bayo 3 or Xenoblade X port. I'm talking Botw 2, the next 3D Mario game, Metroid Prime 4, some new AAA IP, etc.

And before anyone starts to tell me how Metroid Prime 4 is small potatoes because 1-3 were, I believe that the game has been so hyped and talked about for so long that the demand for it is ripening like a fine wine. I predict there will be people that buy MP4 that would never have bought the game had it been an-every-2-to-3-years-we-release-a-new-game kind of series. I predict there will probably be a significant amount of hype-train-buyers that get it and hardly ever play it even. It's become the Shadow of Colossus of Nintendo games, or the next Project Rainfall situation. In fact, this goes into a larger theory I have:

I think Nintendo stops making games for series that sell decent to them (great to most studios), in order to build hype for those series so that when they DO come out with a new game they will sell absolutely massively. Metroid Prime will be the next example of that, I think. Kid Icarus could be another candidate down the road, so could Mother, maybe even Golden Sun. I think they've learned how to create enough demand for games so that when they do make them, they sell really well (therefore making the time/resources they invested into development to be efficiently spent).

Even with what you said 35mil+ just feels like a pipe dream and I'm one of those people that think the Switch has a good chance to sell 140mil+ lifetime. With a big Pokémon and most likely a Switch pro coming.

Unless they have a year of that range, if not 2, I can't see them getting to 140 million based on Nintendo's normal life cycles (6 years). I fully believe they will launch Switch 2 in Spring/Summer 2023 IF they release the Pro in the next 3-6 months. I did some research on this before and I think the average time between pro versions (GBA SP, DSI, New 3ds) are usually 1.5-2 years BEFORE the next generation device comes out.



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Tridrakious on 04 March 2021

I think a lot of the Switch sales momentum will slow once PS5/Xbox Series X|S are more readily available. But I'm thinking 2023 time frame.



xMetroid on 04 March 2021

There is like a thread like this every month lol. Knowing the Switch pro will release this year and that will most likely include a big lineup at the end of this year and going into next year, i really feel like by the end of 2022 it will be passed it. Should reach 105 millions this year and by November 2022 it will be passed 120 millions



Norion on 04 March 2021

I think the same as a few months ago, either the end of 2022 or it'll miss it by a bit and do it first half of 2023.



jonathanalis on 04 March 2021

2022 fiscal year.



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VMCJonCarter on 06 March 2021

End of 2022.



Torpoleon on 07 March 2021

End of 2022 seems to be the most likely. Even if Switch Pro releases in 2022 instead of 2021, I'm sure it will be before the holiday season that year. I also imagine we will see a price cut of at least $50 for both the regular Switch and Switch Lite long before the end of 2022 (I'm guessing it will be by Holiday 2021). I could see the Switch being around 122 or 123 million units sold by the end of 2022, so that should be higher than PS4's lifetime sales even by then.



Heavenly_King on 07 March 2021

before reaching those numbers nintendo will release a new console



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Alex_The_Hedgehog on 07 March 2021
Heavenly_King said:

before reaching those numbers nintendo will release a new console

I really don't think Nintendo will release a new console before 2023.



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Mnementh on 08 March 2021
Heavenly_King said:

before reaching those numbers nintendo will release a new console

Sure thing.

Nintendo will release a new console in 2021 at the peak of the sales of Switch. Releasing a successor even early 2022 would be too late, as even if sales are dropping consoles still sell something after the release of their successor.

EDIT: Oh, and I forgot: naturally Pokemon Legends Arceus and Splatoon 3 will be cancelled, because why produce new big 1st-party content for a console you are about to kill off.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 08 March 2021

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