My Switch lifetime sales predictions

America < 70 million
Europe > 50 million
Japan > 30 million
Rest of the world > 20 million

Total > 170 million

https://www.nme.com/news/gaming-news/sony-playstation-subscription-xbox-game-pass-2821332?amp

You asked why should Sony, they actually are so there ya go. 

Also I’d argue Stadia is a meme, not Cloud gaming. It’s a meme due to the bare launch, missing features and broken promises. Last I checked people aren’t laughing at Luna or Xcloud. It’s only going to get bigger as the years go on.

That Game Pass comparison to PS Plus collection is one of the most cringe statements I’ve read here in while. 

I think it will sell a little less in its lifetime than the Switch, but it's too early to say. I'd say about 105 million for the PS5, and 110-115 million for the Switch.

18-12-6 is my newest best VGChartz meme. But even with that extremely lowball of an prediction for the next three years src ended up admitting the number for Switch would be at least 115-120 million.

Man...those are some ballsy predictions. I do not think that the Switch will become the best selling console of all time. I'm thinking more like:

America > 45M
Europe < 35M
Japan > 30M
RotW < 20M

Total < 130

Way to early to tell, switch is at 70mill atm. Not even close to 170mill.
To early for ps5 to.

Considering how crazy well the Switch is selling, and that it has the potential to be THE best selling console of all time, the chances is that it won't

But the PS5 dosen't need to. It will more likely than not do gangbusters anyway.

I think there's a couple of things going against it in that regard

* The price. It's an expensive system if you want the full package.
* Xbox didnt shit the bed this time around.

But on the other hand... it's a great system and Sony has a lot of good IP's to sell it.

it could very well happen, but I'm gonna go with no. At least for now :P

Do you think the Switch won't be replaced?

The problem with this argument is that you are predicting Switch will fall off of a cliff.  You said it in a very long post, but when someone follows your math, you are trying to argue for a cliff.  You are saying that Switch is at 71-79% of it's sales at 14 quarters.  That would put lifetime sales at less than 100m.  You are just making a big cliff argument.

The flaw with your reasoning is that you picked scenarios that are front loaded.   1) The systems you picked include an extra holiday compared to the Switch and 2) two of the systems you picked peaked during their second year and the other one peaked during it's third year.  Switch is obviously peaking this year.

Very roughly, a system is around 50% of shipments when it peaks, sometimes a few % points more and sometimes a few less.  Switch is about to have it's biggest holiday.  So, if we project shipments out to the end of the FY, then Switch's total will be around 85-90m.  Double that and conservatively Switch is going to sell 170m.  Break it down by region and NA and Japan are selling a bit faster than average while Europe and RoW are selling a bit slower than average.

You really need to evaluate your argument again.  You are projecting Switch to sell under 100m.