To address the OP, this really should be limited to just the U.S./NA market, as others have pointed out. Globally, it will be no contest. PlayStation is simply too large of a global brand.

As for the U.S., well, it's actually really hard to say. While some may think the delay of Halo Infinite makes this pretty cut and dry, it is worth pointing out (as I did in the Halo delay thread) that most non-Nintendo systems don't release with some major killer app. The only examples in the past 21 years have been Soul Calibur on the Dreamcast and Halo CE on the OXbox. Neither the PS4 nor XBO released with a top-flight exclusive that screamed "I gotta get the new system for this!" Even with a higher launch price and all the negative PR facing it in the months after its announcement, the XBO still managed to put up 1.8M in sales in the 2013 launch holiday, the second-largest launch ever for a system, behind only the PS4, which managed just over 2M. That's not a huge difference.

This is a contest that could be settled merely by being who offers the better value proposition. By far the biggest unknown factor affecting this is pricing. If both the PS5 and XSX have equal pricing, I could easily see them in a dead heat. If the XSX has a modest price advantage (say, $50), it might even win this holiday season, if only narrowly.

Availability of stock is another issue. Will Sony & MS have enough systems to meet demand? Supply constraints were a big factor in the underwhelming launches of every Gen 7 title as well as that of the PS2, while systems with excellent launches had a lot of supply.

As for software, both systems are going to have the same third-party multiplatform titles: AC Valhalla, Dirt 5, Madden, Rainbow Six Quarantine, Watch Dogs Legion, COD 2020, etc. While the PS5 has the advantage with exclusives at launch, I doubt they'll prove decisive. The only truly important ones are Spider-Man: Miles Morales and Halo Infinite, the latter of which got pushed back to next year so it's a non-factor now. Had Halo not been delayed, I would have said it was going to be by far the bigger of the two games in terms of potential system-selling power. On the other hand, early adopters may be willing to deal with the wait and bide their time with other games, at least if Infinite wasn't moved back any later than, say, early spring. And while Spider-Man 2018 was a successful game and a definite system-seller, with the Miles Morales game being a shorter spin-off a la Uncharted: The Lost Legacy and not a "true" full-scale sequel it may not have nearly the same impact. And seeing as the success of systems' launches seem to never be dependent on launch lineups, all of this could be a non-issue. As mentioned, the PS4 & XBO both had stellar launches but neither had truly must-have launch exclusives (and even the third-party lineup wasn't mind-blowing).

Personally, I think this will mostly come down to pricing and supply. Assuming both launch at the same price and have sufficient supply, I'll simply deem this contest a pure toss-up. Early adopters gonna adopt early regardless, and PS & Xbox are competitive enough in the U.S. for this to go either way. How things go in the longer term remains to be seen, but it's a marathon, not a sprint. I still think this has the potential to be one of the closest contests ever in the U.S. market, and I doubt we'll see a big blowout one way or the other.

The thread itself is a tad ambiguous, but considering the poll specifically says "the rival" in the OP, it should be pretty clear that he means the console that is directly launching with it.  

Technically the OP is asking about the launching season, and the Switch is already an established console.  If an OP was asking about two brand new kinds of chocolate, which would end up being more popular, and insisting that it doesn't matter because milk chocolate is clearly better, that person would frankly be going off topic.  

Personally I would say your comments are a bit off topic.  

To address the OP, this really should be limited to just the U.S./NA market, as others have pointed out. Globally, it will be no contest. PlayStation is simply too large of a global brand.

As for the U.S., well, it's actually really hard to say. While some may think the delay of Halo Infinite makes this pretty cut and dry, it is worth pointing out (as I did in the Halo delay thread) that most non-Nintendo systems don't release with some major killer app. The only examples in the past 21 years have been Soul Calibur on the Dreamcast and Halo CE on the OXbox. Neither the PS4 nor XBO released with a top-flight exclusive that screamed "I gotta get the new system for this!" Even with a higher launch price and all the negative PR facing it in the months after its announcement, the XBO still managed to put up 1.8M in sales in the 2013 launch holiday, the second-largest launch ever for a system, behind only the PS4, which managed just over 2M. That's not a huge difference.

This is a contest that could be settled merely by being who offers the better value proposition. By far the biggest unknown factor affecting this is pricing. If both the PS5 and XSX have equal pricing, I could easily see them in a dead heat. If the XSX has a modest price advantage (say, $50), it might even win this holiday season, if only narrowly.

Availability of stock is another issue. Will Sony & MS have enough systems to meet demand? Supply constraints were a big factor in the underwhelming launches of every Gen 7 title as well as that of the PS2, while systems with excellent launches had a lot of supply.

As for software, both systems are going to have the same third-party multiplatform titles: AC Valhalla, Dirt 5, Madden, Rainbow Six Quarantine, Watch Dogs Legion, COD 2020, etc. While the PS5 has the advantage with exclusives at launch, I doubt they'll prove decisive. The only truly important ones are Spider-Man: Miles Morales and Halo Infinite, the latter of which got pushed back to next year so it's a non-factor now. Had Halo not been delayed, I would have said it was going to be by far the bigger of the two games in terms of potential system-selling power. On the other hand, early adopters may be willing to deal with the wait and bide their time with other games, at least if Infinite wasn't moved back any later than, say, early spring. And while Spider-Man 2018 was a successful game and a definite system-seller, with the Miles Morales game being a shorter spin-off a la Uncharted: The Lost Legacy and not a "true" full-scale sequel it may not have nearly the same impact. And seeing as the success of systems' launches seem to never be dependent on launch lineups, all of this could be a non-issue. As mentioned, the PS4 & XBO both had stellar launches but neither had truly must-have launch exclusives (and even the third-party lineup wasn't mind-blowing).

Personally, I think this will mostly come down to pricing and supply. Assuming both launch at the same price and have sufficient supply, I'll simply deem this contest a pure toss-up. Early adopters gonna adopt early regardless, and PS & Xbox are competitive enough in the U.S. for this to go either way. How things go in the longer term remains to be seen, but it's a marathon, not a sprint. I still think this has the potential to be one of the closest contests ever in the U.S. market, and I doubt we'll see a big blowout one way or the other.

I think fans will pay any price at launch. So supply might be the real factor. No that I think back, dint sony launch the ps4 in like 40 markets against the xbox1 in 13? I know sony expects higher demand and ramped up production, but if a similar scenario where to happen, would sony spread its supply to thing and sell less units in the US, but sell a lot more world wide? I know that selling world wide was a guaranty victory for sony and the only real competition is the US, But would it be consider a victory if both sell out but sony was supply constrain in the US?

If by the majority, you are referring to posts on forums and tech types on youtube? Then that will give you a very skewed data set to draw your conclusions from. As those represent the vocal minority.

With regard to the mass market, I think it will surprise how many people are willing to forego a disc drive if it means they save $100. And digital game sales representing more than 50% of game sales these days is indicative of this trend.

That second scenario I gave isn't something I believe is even possible. XSX can't be just $100 more than the XSS. Impossible. But that's the only way I see sony being in any sort of trouble.

The only real "ideal" scenario I truly see (unless sny fucks something up) is scenario one, where the XSS cost $299-$329, the PS5DE cost $399-$449 and the XSX/PS5 cost $499. But in that situation, the real fight is going to be between the PS5DE vs XSS (which is likely also going to be all digital). And in that case, the PS5 DE offers the far better value. Besides, I don't see a $70-$100 price difference between the XSS and PS5DE being enough to shift sales in favor of the XSS.

The biggest issue I see for the XSS is that it will look, and seem (even down to its packaging) like the "poor mans XSX". And that's because the only thing missing in the cheaper PS5 is a disc drive, wheres the XSS is butchered compared to the XSX. 

Funny enough, when rumors of Lockhart started making the rounds and before sony revealed the DE PS5, I actually sad that the worst thing that could happen for MS is if sony somehow priced the PS5 to be in the middle of the two MS SKUs. Granted I didn't anticipate a digital PS5, but that's exactly what sony seems to be doing anyway.

I didn't see a $399 XBSX being very likely initially, I agree, but with Infinite being delayed, unless MS has something else up their sleeve, they would be wise to price their hardware as low as possible and eat whatever loss they have to early on. It wouldn't be a crazy move for MS to try and up sell people on XBSX. If it's the same price as PS5 at $499, it will barely change the market at best. However, if it's not only cheaper than PS5, but also only $100 more than XBSS, now the XBSX looks like one heck of a great deal. That would be mic drop worthy, and MS really needs one right about now, especially with Master Chief MIA.

That would be a lot of loss eating on MS part.

If the rumors are to be believed, the PS5 costs around $450 to make. And the XSX is rumored to cost around $480~. So let's say the PS5 in general costs around $420 - $450 (digital and non-digital version). Tack on another $60 to that (retailers cut and taxes), and you have a range of around $480 - $510. At $399 sony is losing around $80 on every digital SKU and at $499 they are losing $10 on every standard SKU.

But sony wants to sell more digital consoles because they stand to make the most money from that SKU in the long run.

Now looking at MS XSX, You are looking at $540 total (bom + $60). If they sell that SKU at $399, that's a $140 loss they would be taking on every console. That single SKU loss is more than both losses of the PS5DE and PS5 standard SKUs combined.

On the flip side, a $140 loss per console is not the end of the world, after all, sony was biting a $250+ loss on every PS3 sold back in 2006. But I doubt that's something Xboxdivision can pitch to MS. They are already taking losses in a lot of other areas tied to their gaming division. And doing that would likely just make sony react by selling the PS5 DE for $349.