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EricHiggin on 15 August 2020
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Intrinsic said:
EricHiggin said:

I think SNY doesn't win as big as you suggest in the first scenario, since it seems the majority have been selecting PS5 over DE. With a $299 XBSS, assuming it has an optical drive, I think consumers will see a $499 PS5 and XBSX more so as the next step. That's a pretty big gap, and should lead to even higher XBSS sales.

In the second scenario, it should be a much closer race. Why buy XBSS for $299, when you could have XBSX for just $100 more? Way more performance and no compromises with the optical drive. Though how many will think why buy XBSX, when you could have PS5 for just $100 more? No that many I'd guess, based on the paper specs and marketing.

If by the majority, you are referring to posts on forums and tech types on youtube? Then that will give you a very skewed data set to draw your conclusions from. As those represent the vocal minority.

With regard to the mass market, I think it will surprise how many people are willing to forego a disc drive if it means they save $100. And digital game sales representing more than 50% of game sales these days is indicative of this trend.

That second scenario I gave isn't something I believe is even possible. XSX can't be just $100 more than the XSS. Impossible. But that's the only way I see sony being in any sort of trouble.

The only real "ideal" scenario I truly see (unless sny fucks something up) is scenario one, where the XSS cost $299-$329, the PS5DE cost $399-$449 and the XSX/PS5 cost $499. But in that situation, the real fight is going to be between the PS5DE vs XSS (which is likely also going to be all digital). And in that case, the PS5 DE offers the far better value. Besides, I don't see a $70-$100 price difference between the XSS and PS5DE being enough to shift sales in favor of the XSS.

The biggest issue I see for the XSS is that it will look, and seem (even down to its packaging) like the "poor mans XSX". And that's because the only thing missing in the cheaper PS5 is a disc drive, wheres the XSS is butchered compared to the XSX. 

Funny enough, when rumors of Lockhart started making the rounds and before sony revealed the DE PS5, I actually sad that the worst thing that could happen for MS is if sony somehow priced the PS5 to be in the middle of the two MS SKUs. Granted I didn't anticipate a digital PS5, but that's exactly what sony seems to be doing anyway.

Yes. The majority of early adopters, the launch season crowd, looks to prefer the optical drive. If that means $499, then $299 is going to look much more enticing in general, not to mention as a secondary console. These buyers, being more hardcore in terms of early adoption, would also be the type to potentially purchase a PS and XB console. If both models for both brands are being lumped together when it comes to sales, then those sales can cancel each other out. Since PS5 seems to be the future console of choice as well, than every buyer who also grabs an XBSX, or XBSS due to it's low price, wouldn't be helping to add to the PS5 sales gap. XBSS can surely launch with an optical drive at $299, if PS5 DE can be $399, and that would seal the deal for many two SKU purchasers.

After the launch season, then I can see the value of the PS5 DE, if priced correctly, being much more of a problem for XBSS, since a greater amount of those more casual buyers, will be after only 1 console.

If PS5 DE is $399, then there is little doubt that XBSS will be $299, optical drive or not. XBSS has to be minimum $100 cheaper at it's rumored specs. PS5 can be the same price as XBSX at $499 and it's not going to matter much at all. It will be quite similar to when PS4 and XB1 were the same price.

I remember that, and I wasn't so sure if that would be the greatest move for SNY or not. It's not like it would be a horrible move, but being in the middle has it's pro's and con's. SNY is likely trying to combat this by killing two birds with one stone and selling the cheaper DE version. Now they can be in the middle and near/at the top. As long as SNY is willing to subsidize the DE model to keep it within $100 of XBSS, it's going to make things much tougher to move XB hardware. SNY can also make bank because of digital only PS Store sales.

I didn't see a $399 XBSX being very likely initially, I agree, but with Infinite being delayed, unless MS has something else up their sleeve, they would be wise to price their hardware as low as possible and eat whatever loss they have to early on. It wouldn't be a crazy move for MS to try and up sell people on XBSX. If it's the same price as PS5 at $499, it will barely change the market at best. However, if it's not only cheaper than PS5, but also only $100 more than XBSS, now the XBSX looks like one heck of a great deal. That would be mic drop worthy, and MS really needs one right about now, especially with Master Chief MIA.

Last edited by EricHiggin - on 15 August 2020