Shadow1980 said:
To address the OP, this really should be limited to just the U.S./NA market, as others have pointed out. Globally, it will be no contest. PlayStation is simply too large of a global brand.
As for the U.S., well, it's actually really hard to say. While some may think the delay of Halo Infinite makes this pretty cut and dry, it is worth pointing out (as I did in the Halo delay thread) that most non-Nintendo systems don't release with some major killer app. The only examples in the past 21 years have been Soul Calibur on the Dreamcast and Halo CE on the OXbox. Neither the PS4 nor XBO released with a top-flight exclusive that screamed "I gotta get the new system for this!" Even with a higher launch price and all the negative PR facing it in the months after its announcement, the XBO still managed to put up 1.8M in sales in the 2013 launch holiday, the second-largest launch ever for a system, behind only the PS4, which managed just over 2M. That's not a huge difference.
This is a contest that could be settled merely by being who offers the better value proposition. By far the biggest unknown factor affecting this is pricing. If both the PS5 and XSX have equal pricing, I could easily see them in a dead heat. If the XSX has a modest price advantage (say, $50), it might even win this holiday season, if only narrowly.
Availability of stock is another issue. Will Sony & MS have enough systems to meet demand? Supply constraints were a big factor in the underwhelming launches of every Gen 7 title as well as that of the PS2, while systems with excellent launches had a lot of supply.
As for software, both systems are going to have the same third-party multiplatform titles: AC Valhalla, Dirt 5, Madden, Rainbow Six Quarantine, Watch Dogs Legion, COD 2020, etc. While the PS5 has the advantage with exclusives at launch, I doubt they'll prove decisive. The only truly important ones are Spider-Man: Miles Morales and Halo Infinite, the latter of which got pushed back to next year so it's a non-factor now. Had Halo not been delayed, I would have said it was going to be by far the bigger of the two games in terms of potential system-selling power. On the other hand, early adopters may be willing to deal with the wait and bide their time with other games, at least if Infinite wasn't moved back any later than, say, early spring. And while Spider-Man 2018 was a successful game and a definite system-seller, with the Miles Morales game being a shorter spin-off a la Uncharted: The Lost Legacy and not a "true" full-scale sequel it may not have nearly the same impact. And seeing as the success of systems' launches seem to never be dependent on launch lineups, all of this could be a non-issue. As mentioned, the PS4 & XBO both had stellar launches but neither had truly must-have launch exclusives (and even the third-party lineup wasn't mind-blowing).
Personally, I think this will mostly come down to pricing and supply. Assuming both launch at the same price and have sufficient supply, I'll simply deem this contest a pure toss-up. Early adopters gonna adopt early regardless, and PS & Xbox are competitive enough in the U.S. for this to go either way. How things go in the longer term remains to be seen, but it's a marathon, not a sprint. I still think this has the potential to be one of the closest contests ever in the U.S. market, and I doubt we'll see a big blowout one way or the other.
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