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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bolder Prediction: [So Far 8.18mil] Animal Crossing New Horizons will be 12mil in Japan Lifetime

 

It will sell (ship+digital)

Under 7mil 5 10.87%
 
Around 7.5mil 5 10.87%
 
8mil 3 6.52%
 
8.5mil 4 8.70%
 
9mil 3 6.52%
 
9.5mil 3 6.52%
 
10mil 3 6.52%
 
10.5mil 2 4.35%
 
11mil 2 4.35%
 
12mil 16 34.78%
 
Total:46
tbone51 on 25 April 2020
Bofferbrauer2 said:
tbone51 said:

Oh no, I think I made like 30 and I probably did some dumb ones lol.

off the top of my head I said LM2 would do 1mil in japan, Splatoon would break 1mil WW in a month and Splatoon would hit 1mil in japan by years end..... BotW would sell over 10mil and that was an understatement lol

The Splatoon ones were especially funny, since so many thought it would sell similarly to TW101

Edit: looking through the theads you made, pls wait...

  1. This one will get interesting in a week or so: Can AC cross 25M Worldwide?
  2. 10M LT for Luigi's Mansion 3
  3. Your Ultimate Bold prediction of 15M first month for Smash. Didn't work out, but not that far off, either.
  4. A bit less bold: 25M LT for Smash
  5. Even less bold (and older): 20M+ for Smash
  6. Splatoon 2018 outselling Splatoon 2017?
  7. 99 On Metacritic for Super Mario Odyssey? Almost, dude, almost...
  8. Splatoon 2 outselling DQ XI combined numbers. Could need some update btw
  9. 10M LT for BotW
  10. 4M Switch in Japan in 2017
  11. 18M shipped for Sun/Moon in launch year
  12. Fire Emblem IF 700k FW and 1M+ LT in Japan
  13. A bold prediction about Amiibos
  14. As for Splatoon... looks like that one wasn't a BOLD prediction. At least I couldn't find one, just this. But. It. Is. Glorious! As is this one, which is just about Japan.

Also funny how you predicted Splatoon in Smash already after it's E3 announcement trailer

Wow bout to read thru these. I had many others from before as well. Thanks for posting



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Bofferbrauer2 on 25 April 2020
tbone51 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

The Splatoon ones were especially funny, since so many thought it would sell similarly to TW101

Edit: looking through the theads you made, pls wait...

  1. This one will get interesting in a week or so: Can AC cross 25M Worldwide?
  2. 10M LT for Luigi's Mansion 3
  3. Your Ultimate Bold prediction of 15M first month for Smash. Didn't work out, but not that far off, either.
  4. A bit less bold: 25M LT for Smash
  5. Even less bold (and older): 20M+ for Smash
  6. Splatoon 2018 outselling Splatoon 2017?
  7. 99 On Metacritic for Super Mario Odyssey? Almost, dude, almost...
  8. Splatoon 2 outselling DQ XI combined numbers. Could need some update btw
  9. 10M LT for BotW
  10. 4M Switch in Japan in 2017
  11. 18M shipped for Sun/Moon in launch year
  12. Fire Emblem IF 700k FW and 1M+ LT in Japan
  13. A bold prediction about Amiibos
  14. As for Splatoon... looks like that one wasn't a BOLD prediction. At least I couldn't find one, just this. But. It. Is. Glorious! As is this one, which is just about Japan.

Also funny how you predicted Splatoon in Smash already after it's E3 announcement trailer

Wow bout to read thru these. I had many others from before as well. Thanks for posting

Yeah, I saw you made over 1800 threads, which is crazy tbh.

How about some updates for some of them?



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tbone51 on 25 April 2020
Bofferbrauer2 said:
tbone51 said:

Wow bout to read thru these. I had many others from before as well. Thanks for posting

Yeah, I saw you made over 1800 threads, which is crazy tbh.

How about some updates for some of them?

10-13 were off. I say I’ll only do bold prediction reguarding sales lol. #8 I was right and #6 I was wrong



The_Liquid_Laser on 25 April 2020

Heh, it's not enough for AC to break the record, but it has to do it by several million.

I really don't know what it will sell in Japan, but it looks like it's going to be a ton. I voted 10m in the poll, but I really have no clue.



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IcaroRibeiro on 25 April 2020

This is impossible

Switch japanese userbase is only 13 million players atm. They will need to push this much further, something like 29-30 million users, DS-like userbase

Even if Swtich eventually archive 25-26 million users, it will take years. By the time it happens Animal Crossing will be a really old game (3, maybe 4 years old). New Leaf sold around 66% of it's lifetime sales on the first year, so if New Horizons make the same cut it would lead for a 7,92 (66% of 12 million) million copies in a year, it means literally more than half of switch owners

There is a roof for NH sales, the roof is the number of Switch players. I don't think it can move anything higher than 6-6.5 million copies this year. And god, 6+ million copies is already freaking insane and would lead form something around ~9 million copies lifetime, literally the best selling game ever in Japan.



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IcaroRibeiro on 25 April 2020

@tbone51 please make a 10 million bold prediction for metroid 4 prime ;D



Metallox on 25 April 2020

You want roughly 1 out of every Japanese to have a copy of the game. That's nuts.



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

sethnintendo on 26 April 2020

Finally a bold prediction. If someone says too bold then you know you are doing something right or wrong. I'm proud of you.



UnderwaterFunktown on 26 April 2020

Considering its probably closing in on 5 mil already if you include digital, it's certainly not impossible.
But it's the attachment rate that gets me skeptical. 40-45 % is significantly more than even any of the Pokémon games, which have always been the definition of system sellers in Japan.
If the Switch itself somehow catches up to the DS, it could maybe happen, but while it is ofc dangerous to doubt your predictions I'll go with a slightly safer 10,5 mil.



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tbone51 on 26 April 2020
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Heh, it's not enough for AC to break the record, but it has to do it by several million.

I really don't know what it will sell in Japan, but it looks like it's going to be a ton. I voted 10m in the poll, but I really have no clue.

I honestly don’t feel like I can brag anymore with the original thread....... feels like an underachievement lol