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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bolder Prediction: [So Far 8.18mil] Animal Crossing New Horizons will be 12mil in Japan Lifetime

 

It will sell (ship+digital)

Under 7mil 5 10.87%
 
Around 7.5mil 5 10.87%
 
8mil 3 6.52%
 
8.5mil 4 8.70%
 
9mil 3 6.52%
 
9.5mil 3 6.52%
 
10mil 3 6.52%
 
10.5mil 2 4.35%
 
11mil 2 4.35%
 
12mil 16 34.78%
 
Total:46
kirby007 on 04 May 2020

where does the 350 million switch prediction rank in this



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tbone51 on 07 August 2020
JWeinCom said:
That's just a little too bold for me. Can't see it beating the previous record by that much.


how about now?? :P

RolStoppable said:
10m would be bold enough already, beating the previous record by ~2m. 12m is pretty bonkers.

The game is certainly selling at a staggering pace, but the question of the saturation point is an important one. Pokémon was a phenomenon back in the day and ultimately had its legs cut short with the altered releases of Blue and especially Yellow, so 10m for a game in Japan is within the realms of possibility. But 12m? That's certainly more tbone-ish than a few other of your predictions lately, so I'll give it to you that you've been getting back in the groove.

So...

Best-selling game of all time in Japan: Yes.
10m lifetime: Maybe. I am 50/50 on that one because the first several weeks had amazing sales.
12m lifetime: Nope.


you know why I’m quoting you lmao!!

You agreed to Best Selling game so your not on drugs

your 50/50 on 10mil which seems to be the safe bet as of now (no less than 9mil at this point)

and then the 12mil.... how do you feel about that now?



tbone51 on 07 August 2020

Also quick note to make, since I notice something wrong with my prediction



my prediction from before (in OP)
Tbone5189 prediction ACNH (shipment+Digital)
Q1 4200k
Q2 2800k (yes I’m serious)
Q3 500k
Q4 800k
Y1 8300k (surpassing Pokémon RG)

I had put 7mil by end of June, it was surpassed by 150k to make it 7.15mil. Without bundles it seems like it’s selling weekly somewhere in the 40k-50k range. But the bundle is keeping it afloat.

I had originally put Q3 for 500k followed by holiday 800k. To make it 8.3mil for years end. July has proven already that my Q3 prediction is pessimistic as hell to my surprise. ACNH will be closer to 1mil by end of sept, so 800k+ is to be expected. I’ll have to revise my prediction now lol



RolStoppable on 07 August 2020
tbone51 said:
RolStoppable said:
10m would be bold enough already, beating the previous record by ~2m. 12m is pretty bonkers.

The game is certainly selling at a staggering pace, but the question of the saturation point is an important one. Pokémon was a phenomenon back in the day and ultimately had its legs cut short with the altered releases of Blue and especially Yellow, so 10m for a game in Japan is within the realms of possibility. But 12m? That's certainly more tbone-ish than a few other of your predictions lately, so I'll give it to you that you've been getting back in the groove.

So...

Best-selling game of all time in Japan: Yes.
10m lifetime: Maybe. I am 50/50 on that one because the first several weeks had amazing sales.
12m lifetime: Nope.


you know why I’m quoting you lmao!!

You agreed to Best Selling game so your not on drugs

your 50/50 on 10mil which seems to be the safe bet as of now (no less than 9mil at this point)

and then the 12mil.... how do you feel about that now?

10m is more than 50/50 now. At least 80/20 in favor of getting there.

12m remains a tall order. I keep seeing news on my Switch that the game is getting regular updates, so that helps the game to keep getting talked about and lure in even more customers. But 12m is also ~10% of Japan's population, so...

...I am thinking about your "Switch will outsell the DS in Japan" thread where I said that's possible. With hardware sales like that, it isn't unthinkable for a game to sell 12m. 7.15m in the books, regular updates with who knows what's left to come, so I'll upgrade 12m lifetime to a 40/60 chance now.

By now your "SSBU to sell 25m lifetime" prediction looks like a piece of cake, something else that I considered impossible. Switch and its games are doing really great.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

JWeinCom on 07 August 2020
tbone51 said:
JWeinCom said:
That's just a little too bold for me. Can't see it beating the previous record by that much.


how about now?? :P

RolStoppable said:
10m would be bold enough already, beating the previous record by ~2m. 12m is pretty bonkers.

The game is certainly selling at a staggering pace, but the question of the saturation point is an important one. Pokémon was a phenomenon back in the day and ultimately had its legs cut short with the altered releases of Blue and especially Yellow, so 10m for a game in Japan is within the realms of possibility. But 12m? That's certainly more tbone-ish than a few other of your predictions lately, so I'll give it to you that you've been getting back in the groove.

So...

Best-selling game of all time in Japan: Yes.
10m lifetime: Maybe. I am 50/50 on that one because the first several weeks had amazing sales.
12m lifetime: Nope.


you know why I’m quoting you lmao!!

You agreed to Best Selling game so your not on drugs

your 50/50 on 10mil which seems to be the safe bet as of now (no less than 9mil at this point)

and then the 12mil.... how do you feel about that now?

It's looking... very possible.



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The_Liquid_Laser on 07 August 2020

I feel there is an art to these tbone51 threads.  Obviously they are all bullish predictions, but a good amount of them actually turn out right.  The art is figuring out which ones those are.

After seeing Nintendo's last financial report I'm ready to come aboard on this prediction.  Let's ride this train all the way to 12m!  Choo choo!



My Threads:
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?

My Bet With curl-6
My Bet With Metallox

The_Liquid_Laser on 07 August 2020
Ryng said:
Hi everyone, wanna bump this thread for letting you know that i made a video where i talk about this prediction!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1T-UxLJvac

Hope you like it!

This is the first I noticed this video.  I found in entertaining and informative.  Good job!

Bofferbrauer2 said:
MasonADC said:
Animal crossing isn’t outselling Mario Kart 8. It’ll probably be the second best selling game but MK8D will for sure be ahead of it by a good amount too

In North America, MK8D will win for sure. In Europe however, not so much, that's much more of a tossup. And in Japan, it's guaranteed that AC:NH will win out.

So in short, it's not at all guaranteed that Mario Kart will win out here in the end. However, I'm positive that both will be on the first and second step of the podium of best-selling Switch titles. The Question is who's on top out fo the two.

Looks like your prediction was right...and it didn't take long either.



My Threads:
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?

My Bet With curl-6
My Bet With Metallox

mk7sx on 07 August 2020
tbone51 said:
Also quick note to make, since I notice something wrong with my prediction



my prediction from before (in OP)
Tbone5189 prediction ACNH (shipment+Digital)
Q1 4200k
Q2 2800k (yes I’m serious)
Q3 500k
Q4 800k
Y1 8300k (surpassing Pokémon RG)

I had put 7mil by end of June, it was surpassed by 150k to make it 7.15mil. Without bundles it seems like it’s selling weekly somewhere in the 40k-50k range. But the bundle is keeping it afloat.

I had originally put Q3 for 500k followed by holiday 800k. To make it 8.3mil for years end. July has proven already that my Q3 prediction is pessimistic as hell to my surprise. ACNH will be closer to 1mil by end of sept, so 800k+ is to be expected. I’ll have to revise my prediction now lol

Q1 3800K

Q2 3300K

Now Q3 pacing for double your prediction.  Less front-loaded but more leggy than you expected.

Also, JP share of WW actually went down from Q1 > Q2 (32.^% > 31.1%).  If that continues this next quarter we're looking at ~5M WW.



tbone51 on 07 August 2020
RolStoppable said:
tbone51 said:


you know why I’m quoting you lmao!!

You agreed to Best Selling game so your not on drugs

your 50/50 on 10mil which seems to be the safe bet as of now (no less than 9mil at this point)

and then the 12mil.... how do you feel about that now?

10m is more than 50/50 now. At least 80/20 in favor of getting there.

12m remains a tall order. I keep seeing news on my Switch that the game is getting regular updates, so that helps the game to keep getting talked about and lure in even more customers. But 12m is also ~10% of Japan's population, so...

...I am thinking about your "Switch will outsell the DS in Japan" thread where I said that's possible. With hardware sales like that, it isn't unthinkable for a game to sell 12m. 7.15m in the books, regular updates with who knows what's left to come, so I'll upgrade 12m lifetime to a 40/60 chance now.

By now your "SSBU to sell 25m lifetime" prediction looks like a piece of cake, something else that I considered impossible. Switch and its games are doing really great.

The only way it’ll hit 12mil or above is with constant updates (similar to Splatoon) for 2-3years. As well as the bundles which imo AC is the best game for japan. AC is currently selling great but even much better due to the NSW shortages and AC being a good amount of it bundled.

i predicted 8.3mil for the year and that will be destroyed. 9mil is looking like a possibility now, AC in Q3 could be 1mil but we will see. Obon coming up and AC bundle can push the game.

as for the DS thread, yeah NSW sells 30mil that means 10mil+ sales from 2021 and later. Out of that number only 2-3mil have to purchase AC which we all know has the best legs in japan. 40/60 is good odds I’ll take it.

SSBU doin 25mil is great, I want 30mil but too soon to tell yet. After last quarter it’ll make it. The biggest unknown is how high AC and MK will go. Both will be 40mil at this point though



Bofferbrauer2 on 07 August 2020

@tbone51 : Will you update the OP with the latest numbers?

NateH said:
When you look at games like Smash Ultimate (which outsold New Horizons in their respective North American openings) having 17 million lifetime, I'm thinking this is laughable. Twelve million in Japan alone is New Leaf's global lifetime. Might as well predict New Horizons will be the best-selling Switch game ever.

You should have predicted that...

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 07 August 2020

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