10m would be bold enough already, beating the previous record by ~2m. 12m is pretty bonkers.
The game is certainly selling at a staggering pace, but the question of the saturation point is an important one. Pokémon was a phenomenon back in the day and ultimately had its legs cut short with the altered releases of Blue and especially Yellow, so 10m for a game in Japan is within the realms of possibility. But 12m? That's certainly more tbone-ish than a few other of your predictions lately, so I'll give it to you that you've been getting back in the groove.
Best-selling game of all time in Japan: Yes.
10m lifetime: Maybe. I am 50/50 on that one because the first several weeks had amazing sales.
12m lifetime: Nope.
you know why I’m quoting you lmao!!
You agreed to Best Selling game so your not on drugs
your 50/50 on 10mil which seems to be the safe bet as of now (no less than 9mil at this point)
and then the 12mil.... how do you feel about that now?
10m is more than 50/50 now. At least 80/20 in favor of getting there.
12m remains a tall order. I keep seeing news on my Switch that the game is getting regular updates, so that helps the game to keep getting talked about and lure in even more customers. But 12m is also ~10% of Japan's population, so...
...I am thinking about your "Switch will outsell the DS in Japan" thread where I said that's possible. With hardware sales like that, it isn't unthinkable for a game to sell 12m. 7.15m in the books, regular updates with who knows what's left to come, so I'll upgrade 12m lifetime to a 40/60 chance now.
By now your "SSBU to sell 25m lifetime" prediction looks like a piece of cake, something else that I considered impossible. Switch and its games are doing really great.