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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bolder Prediction: [So Far 8.18mil] Animal Crossing New Horizons will be 12mil in Japan Lifetime

 

It will sell (ship+digital)

Under 7mil 5 10.87%
 
Around 7.5mil 5 10.87%
 
8mil 3 6.52%
 
8.5mil 4 8.70%
 
9mil 3 6.52%
 
9.5mil 3 6.52%
 
10mil 3 6.52%
 
10.5mil 2 4.35%
 
11mil 2 4.35%
 
12mil 16 34.78%
 
Total:46

Everyone is saying that Pokemon RB is the top selling in Japan but are we certain that all Minecraft versions combined haven't passed it?



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

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brute said:
Everyone is saying that Pokemon RB is the top selling in Japan but are we certain that all Minecraft versions combined haven't passed it?

Off the top of my head

ps4 1mil+
NSW 2mil+
vita 1.5mil+
3ds 1mil+

5.5mil minimum. So you might be right but it’s also unfair bit.  It could be potentially over 8mil right now.



tbone51 said:
brute said:
Everyone is saying that Pokemon RB is the top selling in Japan but are we certain that all Minecraft versions combined haven't passed it?

Off the top of my head

ps4 1mil+
NSW 2mil+
vita 1.5mil+
3ds 1mil+

5.5mil minimum. So you might be right but it’s also unfair bit.  It could be potentially over 8mil right now.

WiU; PS3 and PC should have had released in Japan as well, right? I believe 360 as well, although that wouldn't contribute much.

And I know it's on almost every console from the past 10+ years but it should still be counted as #1, provided it's gotten there.



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

brute said:
tbone51 said:

Off the top of my head

ps4 1mil+
NSW 2mil+
vita 1.5mil+
3ds 1mil+

5.5mil minimum. So you might be right but it’s also unfair bit.  It could be potentially over 8mil right now.

WiU; PS3 and PC should have had released in Japan as well, right? I believe 360 as well, although that wouldn't contribute much.

And I know it's on almost every console from the past 10+ years but it should still be counted as #1, provided it's gotten there.

On a worldwide scale, Minecraft is the second-most sold game in the world with over 180M copies (Tetris sits at an incredible 500M+ now).

Japan seems to like Minecraft a lot, so it could very well have passed RGB. However, the console versions of old are very truncated versions (especially on size and scope), so new versions of Minecraft are pretty much the same as a remake fidelity-wise.



Hi everyone, wanna bump this thread for letting you know that i made a video where i talk about this prediction!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1T-UxLJvac

Hope you like it!



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Ryng said:
Hi everyone, wanna bump this thread for letting you know that i made a video where i talk about this prediction!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1T-UxLJvac

Hope you like it!

I’ll check it out later tonight!



Ryng said:
Hi everyone, wanna bump this thread for letting you know that i made a video where i talk about this prediction!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1T-UxLJvac

Hope you like it!

Molto bene!

tbone51 said:
Ryng said:
Hi everyone, wanna bump this thread for letting you know that i made a video where i talk about this prediction!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1T-UxLJvac

Hope you like it!

I’ll check it out later tonight!

Be sure not to miss it!



When you look at games like Smash Ultimate (which outsold New Horizons in their respective North American openings) having 17 million lifetime, I'm thinking this is laughable. Twelve million in Japan alone is New Leaf's global lifetime. Might as well predict New Horizons will be the best-selling Switch game ever.



NateH said:
When you look at games like Smash Ultimate (which outsold New Horizons in their respective North American openings) having 17 million lifetime, I'm thinking this is laughable. Twelve million in Japan alone is New Leaf's global lifetime. Might as well predict New Horizons will be the best-selling Switch game ever.

You are missing a few things here

Smash Ultimate released in the holiday season which boosts sales by a lot.
New Horizons is selling like a holiday game in March.

And Animal Crossing is one of the leggiest franchises out there which a much more diverse userbase.

While I do think 12M in Japan is too much I very much believe it will be the bestselling game in Japan ever and its worldwide sales will get to Mario Kart levels. It actually has a shot at becoming the best-selling Switch game.

Last edited by Marth - on 30 April 2020

NateH said:
When you look at games like Smash Ultimate (which outsold New Horizons in their respective North American openings) having 17 million lifetime, I'm thinking this is laughable. Twelve million in Japan alone is New Leaf's global lifetime. Might as well predict New Horizons will be the best-selling Switch game ever.

Fun fact 1: AC NH will outsold New Leaf in Japan within 4months on the market, possibly sooner

Fun fact 2: SSBU had 5 weeks including holiday month and AC had less in a non holiday one

Fun Fact 3: 17mil lifetime is not close of what it’s gonna sell lifetime. It’ll be over at least 23mil. 

Fun fact 4: Many games have outsold previous installments lifetime. Ex BotW, Japan alone is over 2mil by now and Worldwide Twilight Princess was at 8mil and BotW is more than doubled that and will become triple in sales when it’s done selling. AC NH doubling NL is doable

Fun fact 5; AC is going to surpass SSBU quite soon, it’ll be beyond 20mil WW by years end let alone lifetime