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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bolder Prediction: [So Far 8.18mil] Animal Crossing New Horizons will be 12mil in Japan Lifetime

 

It will sell (ship+digital)

Under 7mil 4 9.30%
 
Around 7.5mil 5 11.63%
 
8mil 3 6.98%
 
8.5mil 4 9.30%
 
9mil 3 6.98%
 
9.5mil 3 6.98%
 
10mil 3 6.98%
 
10.5mil 2 4.65%
 
11mil 2 4.65%
 
12mil 14 32.56%
 
Total:43
IcaroRibeiro said:
This is impossible

Switch japanese userbase is only 13 million players atm. They will need to push this much further, something like 29-30 million users, DS-like userbase

Even if Swtich eventually archive 25-26 million users, it will take years. By the time it happens Animal Crossing will be a really old game (3, maybe 4 years old). New Leaf sold around 66% of it's lifetime sales on the first year, so if New Horizons make the same cut it would lead for a 7,92 (66% of 12 million) million copies in a year, it means literally more than half of switch owners

There is a roof for NH sales, the roof is the number of Switch players. I don't think it can move anything higher than 6-6.5 million copies this year. And god, 6+ million copies is already freaking insane and would lead form something around ~9 million copies lifetime, literally the best selling game ever in Japan.

It looks like not only will it hit 8 million but could hit 9 million in the first year. I would've thought it would be impossible too but lesson learned, don't doubt tbone with regards to Animal Crossing lol.



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Norion said:

It looks like not only will it hit 8 million but could hit 9 million in the first year. I would've thought it would be impossible too but lesson learned, don't doubt tbone with regards to Animal Crossing lol.

Do we have current figures for digital sales in Japan?



Bofferbrauer2 said:

@tbone51 : Will you update the OP with the latest numbers?

NateH said:
When you look at games like Smash Ultimate (which outsold New Horizons in their respective North American openings) having 17 million lifetime, I'm thinking this is laughable. Twelve million in Japan alone is New Leaf's global lifetime. Might as well predict New Horizons will be the best-selling Switch game ever.

You should have predicted that...

I just did thanks :)



IcaroRibeiro said:
Norion said:

It looks like not only will it hit 8 million but could hit 9 million in the first year. I would've thought it would be impossible too but lesson learned, don't doubt tbone with regards to Animal Crossing lol.

Do we have current figures for digital sales in Japan?

Roughly 2mil if not slightly under. 7.15mil was ship+digital and 5mil was retail sell thru (minus mynintendo store sales)



8 million this year is guaranteed, and it may very well hit 9 million this year. Which means 10 million is guaranteed next year. 12 million lifetime looks highly likely. Maybe even 13 million.



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Slownenberg said:
8 million this year is guaranteed, and it may very well hit 9 million this year. Which means 10 million is guaranteed next year. 12 million lifetime looks highly likely. Maybe even 13 million.

Game hasn’t fell under 40k retail and Nintendo shipping out Some bundles NSW with AC. Retail is over 300k so far this quarter with 8weeks left. Digitally still doing good, 8mil might be possible by end of sept. 8.5mil is the floor this year, 9mil seems very likely :)



Forgot to update this, already about 70% there. 3.82mil to go



noshten said:

In terms of Japan, I'm with tbone on this, Animal Crossing is in an unparallel situation. I'm actually more bullish on it's performance this year.

Prediction:
Q1: 5M Shipped + Digital
Q2: 7M Shipped + Digital
Q3: 8M Shipped + Digital
Q4: 10M Shipped + Digital

;)

The 10M Dream still lives?

Prediction: Q1 + Q2 + Q3 = 8M

Actual: 3.8M + 3.3M + 1.03M = 8.13M

So 1.87M is missing for Q4 in order for New Horizon to reach 10M this year, so far on Famitsu we have 0.25M

The holidays are the key, Animal Crossing: New Leaf obviously launched right before the holidays, so it can point us towards New Horizon's potential. If at Week 50 New Horizon is above >125K physical I think it will do it. 

  • Week 50, 2012: Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 115.556(-3%)
  • Week 51, 2012: Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 213.329(+85%)
  • Week 52, 2012: Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 400.320(+88%)
  • Week 53, 2012: Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 163,948(-59%)
  • Week 1, 2013: Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 135.971(-17%)

TOTAL: 1.029.124

It really depends on Nintendo and whether they push it via a Bundle this holiday :)

But honestly those 2012 Numbers are what I'm expecting to see from New Horizon this December. It's the biggest game in Japan ever - so it would be fitting if it also has the biggest December Animal Crossing has ever had.