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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

John2290 said:

I follow MarkHamil on twitter and he retweets nasty shit directed at Trump 90% of the time. I used to read the threads for shits and giggles but now I'm in real time watching people with Trump derangement syndrome hoping Trump fucks up at thier own detriment in a pandemic. I think these people might have been composed of foreign bots all along, I can't imagine any American right now is thinking "Ah, I hope Trump fucks this one up". It's gotta be bots. They can't be real. I'm baffled.

I am not a fan of Trump, but people wishing bad things over a country and it's people are as bad. The reason I am not a fan of Trump is that I think America and ultimately the world can do better, so I don't wish bad things on other people, just so that my team 'wins'.



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I'm sick... of hearing the term, "social distancing". Is it just me, or does this not remind you of "coronavirus" and the memes? The 'corps are paying for advertising in grotesque ways' conspiracies are starting to seem less crazy. I'm kidding. Well, mostly anyway.

What good is people still grouping together, but not talking? What? Social distancing actually means physical distancing? So... why don't you just say physical distancing then? I mean, you could still be social then, by talking, and be somewhat less at risk, or maybe just type or write or sign your words by whatever means? Like... social... media?

Can't wait for the courts to start handing out "social public" restraining orders... Don't want to 'infect' anyone with those 'killer' idea's...



Huh, actually came across some positive coronavius news today.  Some asshole who tried to spread the illness to others in Japan died recently from it.  

But then stuff like this makes me remember what percentage of the general population are sociopaths and psychopaths... There's gonna be many more sick bastards out there with the goal of infecting as many people as possible.

 "A 57-year-old man in Japan who had threatened to “scatter” his disease after testing positive for the coronavirus this month died in a hospital on Wednesday, local media reported.

Media had reported last week that local health authorities in Gamagori city, Aichi prefecture, had instructed the man to remain at home after he tested positive on March 4. That evening, the man told his family that he was going to “scatter the virus” and headed to an izakaya pub and a hostess bar, media said."

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-japan-threat/japanese-man-who-threatened-to-spread-coronavirus-dies-media-idUKKBN2150RZ



I'll add to that positive news.
My buddy just said the migrant workers will be allowed into the country for farm work. Not sure of the details, but obviously there's going to be something put in place to make sure they don't have the illness and won't be free to move around once here to potentially contract it. It'll likely mean a minor headache for farmers, and more for transportation probably, but it's much better for them and everyone in the end.
I had met up with my old man and a bunch of the local farmers and all who required migrants weren't going to bother planting anything. Most of those would be fruit and veg growers, and some being tobacco or ginseng growers. Those with crops like apples for example, were about 50/50 in terms of trying to get locals in to harvest later on. That won't be a problem luckily. Now it's just up to mother nature again as per usual.



NightlyPoe said:
SvennoJ said:

Suppressed is the wrong term, my bad. Many of these cases go undetected. The cases from Januari 31st could have already infected other people days before that, who then walked on with maybe just mild flu like symptoms. That's how it starts pretty much everywhere. Canada is also not showing the correct numbers, actively sending people away that want to be tested because they do not fit the profile (travel + age). Community spread isn't admitted to until somebody ends up in the hospital with serious symptoms, tests positive, and contacts can't be traced back to travel. So in essence Canada has been in denial, suppressing numbers, as well. Not by choice, more by incompetence, badly prepared. I expect quite the surge now testing finally gets up to speed.

China shows an average growth rate of 1.15 the week before the first growth peak. Italy is at 1.10 currently.
The average growth rate in the week right after lock down was 1.34 in China, in Italy 1.13 (they already had some other measurements earlier)
Before total lock down in Italy it was 1.19 on average.

Europe is reporting growth rates as low as 1.01 (Denmark) to 1.26 (Switzerland)

So yes it was spreading faster in China!


It starts slow, then accelerates. It's how exponential growth works. It also depends on how contagious and how serious the first few cases were. If the first people were only mildly infected, they might also have a much lower transmission rate. The incubation period varies a lot as well. But once the ball starts rolling, it all averages out and picks up steam.

The Italian outbreak appears to have crossed the border from Germany, not China, which is where those first 3 cases came from.  So, no.

That's how it starts pretty much everywhere. Canada is also not showing the correct numbers, actively sending people away that want to be tested because they do not fit the profile (travel + age). Community spread isn't admitted to until somebody ends up in the hospital with serious symptoms, tests positive, and contacts can't be traced back to travel. So in essence Canada has been in denial, suppressing numbers, as well. Not by choice, more by incompetence, badly prepared. I expect quite the surge now testing finally gets up to speed.

Yes.  And somehow China managed to wait until two months after it had already reached this critical mass where it was detectable in the population (again, despite no knowing to look for it).  Other countries had their rapid growth almost immediately after it became detectable.  China claims they did not.

China shows an average growth rate of 1.15 the week before the first growth peak. Italy is at 1.10 currently.
The average growth rate in the week right after lock down was 1.34 in China, in Italy 1.13 (they already had some other measurements earlier)
Before total lock down in Italy it was 1.19 on average.

Europe is reporting growth rates as low as 1.01 (Denmark) to 1.26 (Switzerland)

So yes it was spreading faster in China!

But apparently it was progressing at a snail's pace before that.

China has almost twice the population packed into a much smaller space as Europe.  Just take one second to eyeball the problem.  Math isn't even necessary.  Does it make sense for Europe to go from almost no cases to twice that as China in a month despite being warned in advance and taking at least some measures of precaution?

What's more.  We KNOW China tried to cover it up in November and December.  Why is it so difficult for you to believe that they're still fudging the numbers?

What makes you so sure it didn't start earlier in Europe, staying undetected for a while. Was anyone actively looking for it? If it came in from Germany that would explain the high numbers from Germany. The first case detected in Canada was on Januari the 15th. Canada only passed the 1,000 cases yesterday. (But lack of community testing I think it's a lot worse here already).

What is critical mass?

On December 31st Chinese Health officials informed the WHO about a cluster of 41 patients with a mysterious pneumonia. There were probably more mild undetected cases lingering around. It can progress at a snails pace at the start. The incubation time is 2 to 14 days. It doesn't do much to most people, it can easily take a while to get going.

And yes it started faster in other places because in other countries it didn't start from one spot / one person. It was imported by multiple people given the virus many chances to take hold and start spreading a lot sooner. That's a very different scenario compared to starting at patient zero.

Why would China be fudging numbers and sending tests and medical personnel away to help in Italy?
Why do you believe they're fudging the numbers? What's the point?



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SvennoJ said:

Another day passed. The average global growth factor for the last seven days was 1.18

Based on these trends, the top 5 tomorrow would look like:
[01] Italy: 53545 (+6525)
[05] US: 27158 (+7776)
[02] Spain: 25554 (+3983)
[03] Germany: 25508 (+5660)
[04] Iran: 20881 (+1237)

The average global growth factor for the last seven days dropped to 1.17, looks like mostly from Germany reporting less than half of expected.

The actual top 5 today (or yesterday atm) was
Italy: 53578 (+6557)
USA: 26863 (+7480)
Spain: 25496 (+3925)
Germany: 22364 (+2516)
Iran: 20610 (+966)

Germany suddenly dropped to half of the trend it was following. Different testing in the weekend? Did they get on top of testing? The USA is also making a hitch in the stats by showing 2656 cases for today (3-22) that were still counted to yesterday two hours earlier. I added them to yesterday (3-21) for now. Maybe something similar happened in Germany, what counts for what day. It will average out again.

Italy keeps testing more and finding less positives as a percentage of tests but is still very closely following the 1.10x growth. Hopefully tomorrow it will start to decline. 1.10x would put tomorrow at +7213 new cases. Hopefully it's less.



SvennoJ said:
SvennoJ said:

Another day passed. The average global growth factor for the last seven days was 1.18

Based on these trends, the top 5 tomorrow would look like:
[01] Italy: 53545 (+6525)
[05] US: 27158 (+7776)
[02] Spain: 25554 (+3983)
[03] Germany: 25508 (+5660)
[04] Iran: 20881 (+1237)

The average global growth factor for the last seven days dropped to 1.17, looks like mostly from Germany reporting less than half of expected.

The actual top 5 today (or yesterday atm) was
Italy: 53578 (+6557)
USA: 26863 (+7480)
Spain: 25496 (+3925)
Germany: 22364 (+2516)
Iran: 20610 (+966)

Germany suddenly dropped to half of the trend it was following. Different testing in the weekend? Did they get on top of testing? The USA is also making a hitch in the stats by showing 2656 cases for today (3-22) that were still counted to yesterday two hours earlier. I added them to yesterday (3-21) for now. Maybe something similar happened in Germany, what counts for what day. It will average out again.

Italy keeps testing more and finding less positives as a percentage of tests but is still very closely following the 1.10x growth. Hopefully tomorrow it will start to decline. 1.10x would put tomorrow at +7213 new cases. Hopefully it's less.

Huh? Germany is at 25554, don't know where you got those numbers?



The numbers of cases will only increase exponentially in the next days. Especially in USA and Australia.

Here in Australia, the Prime Minister banned the entry of non citizens/residents to the country on March 20th For a period of (mire or less) 6 months and also recommended “social distance” in all the country. Yet still on the same day thousands of people visited Bondi Beach in New South Wales. Hotels, Bars and Restaurants are been overcrowded for the last couple of days.

Also, The government banned all cruises to dock and release passengers in Australia but only a few days ago news released that the Ruby Princess cruise docked in Sydney and released all 2500+ passengers, days later they found out that 3 passengers and one crew member tested positive for coronavirus, now the positive cases related to the cruise raised to 26 and will be more in the next days. 

About 10 days ago (12th of March) the country had around 150 confirmed cases, today the number is around 1400 and still growing by a lot.

There are a LOT of people here still thinking this thing it’s not that serious.

Last edited by kazuyamishima - on 22 March 2020

Bofferbrauer2 said:
SvennoJ said:

Huh? Germany is at 25554, don't know where you got those numbers?

Were did you get that from?

morgenpost.de says 22,364.
So does worldometers.info, if you look at there stats for germany.

Did new testing numbers just come in?



SvennoJ said:

Germany suddenly dropped to half of the trend it was following. Different testing in the weekend? Did they get on top of testing?

for now this is not a "drop", but a one day outlier