Sorry, those 3000 came probably in after midnight I guess. 25554 was the tally when I went to bed at 2:30am.

figured it was something like that Bofferbrauer2.

Newest numbers from dernmark, are also higher than ones on worldometer.info (they guys that run it probably also sleep from time to time)

Theres now (this hour) 1,395 confirmed cases of infected in denmark.
232 required hospitalisation (16,6%), and 46 (3,3%) in intensive care.

Ventilators are like ~1400, so the intensive care number is fine for now.

Update:

yesterday we found out we've only done like 12k+ tests, and we re starting to run low on certain parts when it comes to testing.
So we cant just wide-spread test (people in contact with others ect,), only for those we believe have symptoms ect.

Now today on a danish news site, I read that apparently we have a company here in denmark called PenteBase,
that make more than 100,000+ test kits pr week, and have all the parts/expertise that follow and are needed for such.

They sent a email to "health minister" and were apparently just ignored or not discovered.

Right now, their makeing all these solutions to it,.... and their shipping them mainly to India, Australia, and Spain.
Like out of denmark, when we could be useing them here.

This sorta stuff makes me abit angry.
Why are we running low (here in denmark) when we re makeing huge amounts that we instead sell to other countries.
Like I feel bad for india and Australia, but I rather these tests be used here to cover our own needs first.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Perhaps the messed up with Germany reporting, that would explain the sudden drop.
They get it from here which was at that number last night
https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-virus-karte-infektionen-deutschland-weltweit/
and now sits at 23921.

Why did Trump muzzle the CDC, why was he downplaying the disease, why is he going off on already tightly controlled reporters. Every nation has a pathological need to control information (money is at stake, lots of it), but in the end they can't stop it all. The WHO did its job in China and was eventually satisfied by what they saw.

It's not that hard to believe it starts slow in the beginning. If it came from infected animals, perhaps it took a few jumps to get started. If it was only one and it took a while to get sick for the next infected person you already have much more of a slow down than when multiple airline passengers carry in the disease in various stages. You say population density more than make up for the timing differences. That's not how I see it. If patient 0 infects 2 others who have long incubation times and one has such mild symptoms it doesn't progress from there, and that happens twice in a row, you can already be 3 weeks later.

China is also far more prepared for infectious diseases. The swine flu and other viruses still pop up there regularly. Masks are used a lot more.

Here's an article about the early transmission
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
It assumes it started spreading mid December, critical mass reached. A month to get going is not unlikely.

The average age in China is 38.4 compared to Europe 42.6, Italy 45.5. That also has an effect on growth rate as it will have its influence on average incubation period and infection rate of the population.

China has a lot more younger people percentage wise which see very little effects of the disease. Italy hits the sweet spot for this virus :/

As for population density, China sits at 145 per sq km, Italy 206 per sq km.
Population density in Hubei is 310 per sq km, in Lombardy 420 per sq km.
Wuhan sits at 1300 per sq km, Bergamo at 3,000 per sq km.

Italy is more densely populated than China!


Different age demographics, different population density, different travel habits, different every day awareness of infectious diseases.

And in China it started somewhere in land, where in Europe it mostly came from / started multiplying from tourist hot spots where people are generally a lot more on top of each other.

It looks like this discussion is going nowhere, facts vs feelings is what this feels like to me. You are reasoning from unknown assumptions, that it must have reached critical mass much earlier because of a few cases that could have been this. So far, you've showed nothing to back that up.

I wasn't only talking about Italy either, look at Scandinavia where the growth factor is only 1.03

Anyway sure, China bad, us good. We're all just humans putting our own interest before that of others. Why would China want to suppress information of a potential new out break? Because people are so stupid to start avoiding everything Chinese when they hear something like that through sensationalist media. It's the same everywhere, cover up until you can't hide it anymore. It doesn't surprise me, I expect it, no different from any country or company.

I'm still in the dark where you are going with this. Yes, China downplayed the numbers in the beginning but also didn't have the testing up to speed for this new strain. Yes they most likely, surely covered it up to prevent panic and stupid reactions in case it was just another small brush fire like what happens regularly. (They should really clean up those meat markets) However we're here now, what do you think is still going on? Do you think it's still on a rampage in China and they're just pretending they got on top of it?

I don't see it spreading very differently here than in China, there's nothing in the data that backs that up. Actually the other way around, everything suggests it has a better chance of spreading faster here once it's loose in the general population.

Number of deaths confirmed is the important thing here. All of this is overblown and we are going to suffer because of it. FML

Time matters in such reguards.
It hit europe and started really spreading, long before same started happending in the USA.

Why does that matter?

Because deaths from this virus doesnt come soon as you get it.
You spend like a week or two, fighting it, in a hospital on a ventilator before dieing.


I would say the most important numbers are the:

Number of infected, requireing hospital care.
Number of hospital beds, avaliable.
Number of infected, requireing ventilators.
Number of ventilator units, avalible.


I agree you shouldn't be overly alarmed by number of confirmed cases, riseing due to testing.
Its always better knowing, the way things are, than being in the dark.

Coronavirus update, New York:

- New York City: 9,045 cases
- Nassau: 1,900 cases
- Westchester: 1,873 cases
- Suffolk: 1,034 cases
- Rockland: 455 cases
- Orange: 247 cases
- Albany: 123 cases
- Dutchess: 82 cases
- Monroe: 57 cases
- Erie: 54 cases

— Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) March 22, 2020

One one hand.... its best to use the tests responsibly (since theres a limited supply).
However if you have enough, it would be awesome just test every single person in a country.

mostly its about these groups:
So anyone thats been in contact with someone confirmed to have it, or thinking such.
Anyone who shows symptoms (dry caughing multiple times pr day, muscle aches ect).

If you just randomly test like a million people (that are mainly healthy) the % of positives will be really low.
You might think "well done, job done", but where it matters is those who "might" be infected.

If you find out they actually are, you can ask them to not go around infecting others.

+ Also testing of doctors and nurses, often.
You dont want them infecting others, in hospitals that might already be suffering from other sicknesses.