Currently Online 
NightlyPoe said:
Why did they send people out to a doctor to threaten him for warning his colleagues about the danger? Why do they make citizen journalists disappear? Why is the internet tightly controlled?
I am sure it started earlier in Europe. That's why I've been putting a premium on when the clusters become visible. Afterwards the spread is very rapid. China's first visible sign came much earlier.
Health officials were aware and were looking for it, yes.
I was using the term colloquially. I basically meant reached a point where explosive growth would be seen.
Always at least one information dump that doesn't really add anything.
Fair enough. However, the greater length of time and the density of China's population more than make up for potential multiple transmission points. |
Why did Trump muzzle the CDC, why was he downplaying the disease, why is he going off on already tightly controlled reporters. Every nation has a pathological need to control information (money is at stake, lots of it), but in the end they can't stop it all. The WHO did its job in China and was eventually satisfied by what they saw.
It's not that hard to believe it starts slow in the beginning. If it came from infected animals, perhaps it took a few jumps to get started. If it was only one and it took a while to get sick for the next infected person you already have much more of a slow down than when multiple airline passengers carry in the disease in various stages. You say population density more than make up for the timing differences. That's not how I see it. If patient 0 infects 2 others who have long incubation times and one has such mild symptoms it doesn't progress from there, and that happens twice in a row, you can already be 3 weeks later.
China is also far more prepared for infectious diseases. The swine flu and other viruses still pop up there regularly. Masks are used a lot more.
Here's an article about the early transmission
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
It assumes it started spreading mid December, critical mass reached. A month to get going is not unlikely.
The average age in China is 38.4 compared to Europe 42.6, Italy 45.5. That also has an effect on growth rate as it will have its influence on average incubation period and infection rate of the population.
China has a lot more younger people percentage wise which see very little effects of the disease. Italy hits the sweet spot for this virus :/
As for population density, China sits at 145 per sq km, Italy 206 per sq km.
Population density in Hubei is 310 per sq km, in Lombardy 420 per sq km.
Wuhan sits at 1300 per sq km, Bergamo at 3,000 per sq km.
Italy is more densely populated than China!
Different age demographics, different population density, different travel habits, different every day awareness of infectious diseases.
And in China it started somewhere in land, where in Europe it mostly came from / started multiplying from tourist hot spots where people are generally a lot more on top of each other.
