NightlyPoe said:
SvennoJ said:
Suppressed is the wrong term, my bad. Many of these cases go undetected. The cases from Januari 31st could have already infected other people days before that, who then walked on with maybe just mild flu like symptoms. That's how it starts pretty much everywhere. Canada is also not showing the correct numbers, actively sending people away that want to be tested because they do not fit the profile (travel + age). Community spread isn't admitted to until somebody ends up in the hospital with serious symptoms, tests positive, and contacts can't be traced back to travel. So in essence Canada has been in denial, suppressing numbers, as well. Not by choice, more by incompetence, badly prepared. I expect quite the surge now testing finally gets up to speed.
China shows an average growth rate of 1.15 the week before the first growth peak. Italy is at 1.10 currently.
The average growth rate in the week right after lock down was 1.34 in China, in Italy 1.13 (they already had some other measurements earlier)
Before total lock down in Italy it was 1.19 on average.
Europe is reporting growth rates as low as 1.01 (Denmark) to 1.26 (Switzerland)
So yes it was spreading faster in China!
It starts slow, then accelerates. It's how exponential growth works. It also depends on how contagious and how serious the first few cases were. If the first people were only mildly infected, they might also have a much lower transmission rate. The incubation period varies a lot as well. But once the ball starts rolling, it all averages out and picks up steam.
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The Italian outbreak appears to have crossed the border from Germany, not China, which is where those first 3 cases came from. So, no.
| That's how it starts pretty much everywhere. Canada is also not showing the correct numbers, actively sending people away that want to be tested because they do not fit the profile (travel + age). Community spread isn't admitted to until somebody ends up in the hospital with serious symptoms, tests positive, and contacts can't be traced back to travel. So in essence Canada has been in denial, suppressing numbers, as well. Not by choice, more by incompetence, badly prepared. I expect quite the surge now testing finally gets up to speed. |
Yes. And somehow China managed to wait until two months after it had already reached this critical mass where it was detectable in the population (again, despite no knowing to look for it). Other countries had their rapid growth almost immediately after it became detectable. China claims they did not.
China shows an average growth rate of 1.15 the week before the first growth peak. Italy is at 1.10 currently.
The average growth rate in the week right after lock down was 1.34 in China, in Italy 1.13 (they already had some other measurements earlier)
Before total lock down in Italy it was 1.19 on average.
Europe is reporting growth rates as low as 1.01 (Denmark) to 1.26 (Switzerland)
So yes it was spreading faster in China! |
But apparently it was progressing at a snail's pace before that.
China has almost twice the population packed into a much smaller space as Europe. Just take one second to eyeball the problem. Math isn't even necessary. Does it make sense for Europe to go from almost no cases to twice that as China in a month despite being warned in advance and taking at least some measures of precaution?
What's more. We KNOW China tried to cover it up in November and December. Why is it so difficult for you to believe that they're still fudging the numbers?
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