The issue with pandemics has more to do with the number of people who get sick at once.

What a lot of the "It's not an issue until people are dying by the X level" people miss is that this is when it's already too late. The reason for the stiff reaction early on is that communities want to avoid that level of death and high rates of infection all at once. Disease, when out of control, spreads exponentially, and this may not be very noticeable for the first 85-90% of the upward curve outbreak, but in that last 10-15%, if the shit hits the fan, then lots of people die; and it's already too late.

It's not an overreaction if there is a heavy reaction and nothing crazy happens, it's an underreaction when something crazy happen and the amount of critically ill outstrips the hospital capacity. The reaction it takes that successfully stomps out any kind of sickness like this is the appropriate reaction. An overreaction would be something like firebombing Italy to burn the disease in the festering human bodies that contain them.

If ever there was a reminder that we all live on the same fucking planet, this is it!

That doesn't seem to be the case according to the imperial college's study.

Once it gets so bad you move on to the ICU, your survival chance are about 50% no matter the age group.

I calculated their stats through, notice how expected deaths are pretty much always half of expected ICU cases

0 to 9 -> 3.8 million people, 70% infected 2.66 million, 2.6K in the hospital, 53 in ICU (50 dead)
10 to 19 -> 3.7 million people, 70% infected 2.59 million, 7.8K in the hospital, 388 in ICU (155 dead)
20 to 29 -> 4.4 million people, 70% infected 3.08 million, 37K in the hospital, 1800 in ICU (924 dead)
30 to 39 -> 4.6 million people, 70% infected 3.22 million, 103K in the hospital, 5150 in ICU (2570 dead)
40 to 49 -> 4.4 million people, 70% infected 3.08 million, 151K in the hospital, 9500 in ICU (4620 dead)
50 to 59 -> 4.7 million people, 70% infected 3.29 million, 336K in the hospital, 40940 in ICU (19714 dead)
60 to 69 -> 3.4 million people, 70% infected 2.38 million, 395K in the hospital, 108250 in ICU (52360 dead)
70 to 79 -> 2.8 million people, 70% infected 1.96 million, 476K in hospital, 206K in ICU (100K dead)
88 to 99 -> 1.5 million people, 70% infected 1.05 million, 287K in hospital, 203K in ICU (98K dead)

It could be of course that younger people heal quicker and don't need a ventilator for as long, while on the other hand older people die faster not occupying a ventilator for that long :/

It did not go on unchecked for months. It started in November or December (not sure if the guardian is all that reliable), in Januari the WHO was on top of it. Wuhan and other cities went on total lockdown on Januari 23rd. Not the soft social distancing we do here, no military style lock down. The sick got isolated quickly, locked in their homes. Januari 23rd China had 830 confirmed cases, but likely many more unconfirmed. They took it very seriously and still it increased to over 80K cases total. A lot of the measures are still ongoing.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report
https://www.newscientist.com/term/covid-19/
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/chinas-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-brutal-but-effective

Educate yourself before starting conspiracy theories.

From the data it looks more like they are at testing capacity
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/
Overall it's stable, but about 1100 new cases a day. Reported deaths are stabilizing as well, so maybe they have a decline in new cases already and are currently working through a big back log of tests. The amount of daily deaths going down looks like a positive sign. Still too early to draw conclusions.

What is complete fiction? The 80K? Nothing in any of the other data suggests that 80K is too low for the extreme measures that were taken.

Januari 23rd, full lockdown, much stricter than anything Italy is doing.
Growth factor first started declining on Februari 5th, 12 days after full lock down, in line with the incubation period.
Daily active cases peaked on Februari 17th, 25 days after full lock down.
Februari 17th they still reported 1888 new cases which didn't go under 100 until March 6th.

The time line, the math, it all fits.

Where is the complete fiction?


Italy had it's first cases confirmed on Januari 31st.
They went into lock down on March 13th. (but not as drastic as Wuhan and surrounding cities)

So yes, China probably suppressed the early numbers, so did Italy.
Now maybe it was going on for 2 months in China before full lock down and 'only' 1.5 months in Italy before semi full lock down. One went with the most extreme measures to stop it dead in its track, emergency brakes on. Italy is applying the brakes a bit less hard and since the bulk of exponential growth is at the end of the curve, Italy will most likely surpass China's numbers. Earlier measures are better to avoid totalitarian measures. But the latter is very effective to stop a disease in its tracks.

Plastic can carry the virus for a while and even now when people are still isolated in their homes there are still advertisement folders wrapped in plastic pushed through each door by hands we do not know,that's a risk and something that has gone seemingly unnoticed.

Absolutely disgusting behavior. Screw the company I hope the judge fines them instead or laughs them out of the court

Add a zero here for Luxembourg. The fine goes from 1500€ to 10000€ depending on what kind of store, how long you're open and if you're a repeating offender.

Yeah things like that are pretty stupid. Like how we can only pay with a card, because then you don’t have to touch money, but we still need to type in the code on a machine, which everyone else touches.

But those advertisement packages should be banned regardless, though, total waste of paper and plastic. I always feel a bit guilty when I have to throw away a whole stack just minutes after I find them in my mail box. Yes, I should get a “NEE”-sticker for my mailbox (a ‘No’-sticker, to prevent spam) but ‘no’ should just be the default and there should exist “Yes”-stickers instead.

Anyway this is another offtopic matter entirely.