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SvennoJ on 21 March 2020
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NightlyPoe said:

...

Okay, I've kinda let you slide but this is getting ridiculous.  You keep trying to educate me and then pull out stuff that shows you don't understand what I said because you go off on a tangent about something else entirely or you don't understand the material you use to try and prove me wrong.

Nothing you said disproves what I alleged in the slightest.  Indeed, I already knew each data point.  And the problem persists that the rate of infection found in China was considerably less than most other countries despite it being a prime environment for spreading the infection and the government suppressing information on it in its early stages.

It's not even really much of a conspiracy theory.

What is complete fiction? The 80K? Nothing in any of the other data suggests that 80K is too low for the extreme measures that were taken.

Januari 23rd, full lockdown, much stricter than anything Italy is doing.
Growth factor first started declining on Februari 5th, 12 days after full lock down, in line with the incubation period.
Daily active cases peaked on Februari 17th, 25 days after full lock down.
Februari 17th they still reported 1888 new cases which didn't go under 100 until March 6th.

The time line, the math, it all fits.

Where is the complete fiction?


Italy had it's first cases confirmed on Januari 31st.
They went into lock down on March 13th. (but not as drastic as Wuhan and surrounding cities)

So yes, China probably suppressed the early numbers, so did Italy.
Now maybe it was going on for 2 months in China before full lock down and 'only' 1.5 months in Italy before semi full lock down. One went with the most extreme measures to stop it dead in its track, emergency brakes on. Italy is applying the brakes a bit less hard and since the bulk of exponential growth is at the end of the curve, Italy will most likely surpass China's numbers. Earlier measures are better to avoid totalitarian measures. But the latter is very effective to stop a disease in its tracks.