Seeing this table with all the quarters, and more specifically it's drops per quarter for the last 3 fiscal years, it's very hard to imagine how this will go to 160M. If we continue the trend we should have around 0.6-0.75 for quarter 4, which will result in around close to or exactly 4M for the fiscal year. with 156 or 156.1M of shipments. Even putting 2M for the next one it will result in 158M. 1M the year after gets it to 159M, and 0.5 more to 159.5M. The drops should be less than 50% per year, and Switch has to continue to sell till around 2029 or 2030, to have realistic chance at this. It's an uphill battle.
My primary threads:
Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021
Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart
PS5 vs SW2 in 2026 / Biggest months, years and holidays / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2







