The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch (EDIT: See mod note in first post for new rule).

[XtremeBG]

angrypoolman said:

Is it in the realm of possibility that nintendo forecasts over 2 million this year? I think if they forecast 2.5 and achieve that, then its definitely possible

Yes, of course it is in the realms of possibility. However not in the realms of likeliness.

Given that it's barely outsold it's Jan-March quarter with it's latest holiday one, it's looking very hard to have just 35-40% drop forecast for the next fiscal year. It will most likely do something around 500-600k for the last quarter there to end the fiscal year with 3.8M. That is 65% decrease from the previous fiscal year. Not that anything points to lesser decrease for the next fiscal year, but let's just say it will 50% drop. That will still be 1.9M, far from the 2.5M you mentioned. With that you get to 157.8M. Another 50% drop for the following fiscal year, gives you around 900k more, which results in 158.7M. Another 50% for the fiscal year ending March 2029 get's you to 159.2M. And if you want 2030 as retirement year, you can squeeze another 50% drop number of just 200-250k more, that will finish the total number at no more than 159.5M.