The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch (EDIT: See mod note in first post for new rule).

[XtremeBG]

firebush03 said:

To stay on-topic: I’ll refrain from commenting too much on NS1’s LTD prospects until the upcoming fiscal report is dropped (in a couple weeks). If Switch missed its target, then it won’t hit 160mil. If it hit its target, then there’s a chance. If it greatly overperformed, then.. well… there’s a much better chance than before lol. If NS1 shipped 2mil this holiday quarter, then it remains 5.5mil ahead of NDS following Holiday 2011. If Switch maintains the same legs as NDS for the duration of its life, then we'd be looking at ~160.0mil. With how things have been with the economy as of recent, it's plausible NS2 could get a price hike which'll bolster NS1 sales... or NS1 could get another price hike (or perhaps an early discontinuation if it appears a PS2-PS3 situation is emerging) which'll kill any chances the system has at hitting 160mil.

Honestly, with seeing how November went for it, I can't see Switch doing 2M in the holiday quarter. It did 280k in sales for October, and 380k for November. For December, so far it's at 260k with Japan + rest of the world numbers. It may hit some 600-800k for the month. Even with 800k for December, it get's to 1.5M. Shipments by this time are equal or even less than the sold units. Therefore in the best case scenario shipments for the quarter should be no more then 1.5M. Lower end I would say 1M. It was around 1.9M shipped for the 2 previous quarters if I am not mistaken. Therefore with 1.5M more it should reach 3.4M. Maybe another 600k for the last quarter till end of March to make it to 4M? But more seems unlikely at this point.