Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

[XtremeBG]

Norion said:

It should be higher than 2.5m by then since while it only did 230k this May that month is a relatively weak one for console sales and June is a relatively strong one so it shouldn't sell just 200k that month. I don't see it only doing 1.5m then since that would be a massive drop from the nearly 2.9m it did last year. There should be a big drop but 2m seems a lot more realistic. The Xbox One did over twice as much as 1.5m then even in 2019 and the Xbox Series isn't far behind the pace of that year so far so that would be a far better comparison for it than 2020.

I do agree that the comeback potential for the Xbox Series seems non-existent. I just think you're being pessimistic about its sales trajectory to an unrealistic degree. It's gonna do worse than the Xbox One for sure but the drop will be closer to 10m than 15m unless the successor releases 2026.

XBSX started the year with 400k month, after that it had 2 months with 320 and 340k, and then not only May was 230k, but April was 200k as well. Don't ignore it. This becomes a pattern. 5 months into the year and the XBSX is down 50% monthly. Even if the drops doesn't continue (which is still under debate) it will make 200k per month, which is exactly 2.5M by October. Last year the holiday was (november+december) was 2.8M but last year all the months were in the 400-600k range. Now the range has become anything around 200k. So double drop. 1.5M for the holiday is reasonable given the latest drops and latest sales performance for the console. My expectations are not pessimistic, they are realistic given how sales are going this year up to this point. If they don't make something to change it a little bit then I don't see it making more than 4M. I will be happy if the console can do 5 or even 6M this year, which is still not something good, but given it's drops lately it will surely be nice. Maybe if they do some very agressive sale for the whole holiday period on the Series S for 199$ and Series X for 399$ there is a chance to reach 5M, but 6M is out of the question. Just see this flat line and tell me how it is going to go up from nothing ?

The best I can see it does is to have some boost in the end and reach the XB1 line or somewhere close to it +/- 200k

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 18 July 2024