| curl-6 said: It's okay to miss your predictions, we all make mistakes, but the thing is you have an opportunity here to learn from your mistakes. Several of your previous misses were the result of pitching the Switch too low. If you took that into account, you could increase your future success rate by adjusting your Switch forecasts upwards. |
Please read my last post. As I already said, I had only 1 slight miss which was less than 200k for 2022 japan sales of switch, which even most of the people do bigger misses than that, and they don't get attacked for it.
The other thing that didn't happen and that I can recall as my mistake (however it is not a direct sales prediction but more of stock relating one, so logistics category maybe ?) was not with the famous prediction itself (15 to 18M for 2022) but with the thing that I was almost sure - that there will be enough stock for the other consoles ( as yes my logic is still this that there are sales that when one console isnt there customers will get the other. Of course not all but at least some percent of them will ) And you will ask me now why is switch doing well this year with ps5 and xbox in full stock ? Well because if they weren't at full stock Switch would be with even better sales than they are now. But even with my condition not met back then, the Switch finished relatively close to my prediction I gave (19M, so I don't know why you all jumped on me like I said number that the final difference will be like 10M not 1M).
Other than that, my other predictions were all correct. As for this year, we will talk again when the year finishes. When Switch doing well I admire it. If you remember I had post some weeks ago congratulating the system, for the out of nowhere boost in the middle of the year there (in japan). You were saying I lowball the switch about my other correct predictions too. But what happened ? I was right. You are giving the 2022 sales of switch more than 4.7M and you were wrong. So maybe you are pitching it too high ? You were giving the switch sales 2021 more than 25M when there were the discussions (coming holiday period of 2021) But again you say nothing for this. You were highballing it. You said it will sell better than 19M even more than 20M for 2021. Guess what you were wrong for this too. So you are pitching it too high. Almost all the time. Not me lowballing it.
Last edited by XtremeBG - on 05 September 2023
