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Doctor_MG said:
Didn't you predict the Switch would sell only 3M earlier this year? I feel like 4M is still a low-ball prediction when it's 500k above the DS's 2008 and the DS sold 4.2M that year. Unless the Switch has basically no holiday boost Switch will probably end around 4.5M |
No. My prediction was about 3.5M. Earlier when there were weeks of around 50k per week, one after another. And as it is normal for a console to dip in sales many expected to be down from last year with at least 1M. But with how unexpectedly well it is going now, I can see it breaking the 4M mark. And even if I was prediction 3M what ? Making predictions so late in a lifecycle and with sales anomalies like Switch has is a pure gamble. Everyone can change their prediction on the go. Switch doing almost the same as it's previous year so late in it's life is not normal. So It's normal for me to predict 3.5M this year comparing it to 4.7M last year. Consoles have seen much bigger drops in the past. How well or how bad switch will continue no one can tell for sure.
For the post above yours, well no I just expect sales to be around 60 to 70k weekly till end of october, and after that it may have some boost however not nearly what it was the previous years. And also little bit over 4M doest not mean only 20 or 30k more. For me little over 4M means 4.2M for example. Sure of course with continuing sales of 80k per week till october and decent holiday boost it should reach even 4.5M. However so late in it's life, and taking into account it normally have to be under it's last year, I doubt it passing 4.5M. But nothing is impossible.
Last edited by XtremeBG - on 04 September 2023
