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With Switch being around 20-25% down each following year after 2020, I don't see Nintendo waiting till 2025 to release a successor.

They will announce it probably by the end of this year, and they will release it either holiday this year or spring next year.

Historically, after 1 or 2 years at most after the peak period of a system, Nintendo always releases next system. Now it's gone even further. However it won't be infinite.

I expect Switch to finish at around 135M this year, and with successor on the market next year, I expect Switch to finish 2024 between 142 and 145M at max.

Doing totally Lifetime no more than 150M.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 07 April 2023