I still stand to my prediction I did last summer, I think it was ?
For 2023, Switch to finish between 12M (at lowest) and 16M (at highest) depend on if there is a pricecut or successor announcement.
With how the 2022 turned out to be (relatively weak (compared to previous ones) holiday period, and worse than most people anticipated) my prediction becomes more and more likely to become real for this year. Yes Nintendo said they will speed up the production, however it is clear that the demand is declining, and the speed of declining is now not so slow. (mainly seen in the holiday period). Keep in mind that 2022 numbers are not final yet, because 2021 numbers for example were adjusted continiously through out all of 2022 and even as soon as last month when we have them at 24.1M now (originally they were over 25.3M in january 2022). So of course I am very far from saying there will be similar adjustments with the 2022 numbers however it is not out of the question, at the start of 2024, the 2022 numbers for Switch with adjustments to be at 19M or even in the high 18s. And how the pace has gone till now - 2021 (28.2M) 2021 (24.1M) 2022 (19.3) It is number of between 4 and 5M decline year on year.
PS5 - if the stock is full all year - something between 14 and 18M.
XBSX - if stock is full all year - something between 10 and 14M.
