Famitsu Sales: Week 44, 2022 (Oct 24 - Oct 30)

[XtremeBG]

Doctor_MG said:

I really think you're reading into this wrong. These numbers are for the week before the Pokemon themed Switch comes out in Japan. In addition, this is the lowest week Switch has had this year, with most weeks being almost double this number or more. It's much more likely that this sudden drop is due to people waiting for the new Switch themed model than it is a prediction for the future. 

Also, 800k is way too low for the holiday. 1.1M is reasonable, but 800k means Switch sells no more than 100k on average from here until the end of the year. That's not happening. Heck, it'll probably hit over 100k next week and there will definitely be at least one week they almost hit 200k. So you're pretty much saying that after next week there will be multiple weeks with only 50k units sold which I just can't see. 

I am giving a range here. I am not saying it will sell the lowest given number from me. It is range. It may do 1M. Why when someone is doing prediction most people just only get only the lowest (or only the highest, depending on their opinion) numbers ? And also even with 800k prediction this means that switch will sell 100k per week not 50k. Your math isn't right. However I said between 800k and 1M. So why don't take 1M ? I already said that it will hover between 100k and 150k weekly and even I've told it may even have a week reaching 200k just for the record. I am not excluding this possibility. But yeah, numbers around 100k or even better for holiday weeks in japan is very good sales level. Even more when you think of Switch's age.

Also as I already stated, software titles don't boost the Switch so much now as they used to. See last 3 years for the system and weeks where big title has launched. Pokemon may do some boost, but it won't be OMG effect. Also this week was the lowest yes, however there are many other weeks that the systems have done sales like 50-60-70k weekly. And okay there are some weeks early in the year where it has done 80k, however do you see the pattern here ? from 80k weekly (we are speaking no big software title launches here) to 40-50-60k sales week when there is nothing happening. And yes I ironically say when there is no big software title launches when I said they don't give such a boost. They give some boost. Just the effect is not so powerful as the last 3 years. And will get more and more weak with the time move on because Switch reaches saturation point, and whoever wanted one already have one. We will see soon enough. Also with the way it is going, I can't see Switch making more than 3M for the next year in japan. Even this may be much.

P.S. You've probably saw wrong. I gave 800k to 1M for the worldwide weekly numbers for the Switch. For my prediction for japan I said no more than 1M for november + december.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 04 November 2022