I don't think that will be the case; Sony doesn't usually operate that way. There is too much R&D investment to cut the console's lifespan short so soon. It's possible, but unlikely.

It's too early to talk numbers—the console hasn't even been officially announced or revealed yet!!! But based on historical figures and the performance of previous PlayStation consoles, I believe exceeding 50 million units by the end of the generation is a VERY safe bet.

As for what I consider a good number? Personally... it depends on the total number of active users in the ecosystem.

If there are 30 million active users across PS5, PS4, and a portable PS6, then 60 million PS6 units sold would be a good figure.

If there are 10 million active users across PS5, PS4, and a portable PS6, then 80 million becomes the target for PS6 success.

I’d say 90 million active PSN users is the minimum figure to be considered "good." The PS6 sales figure needs to be high enough to ensure that, and I believe it will be. Anything less than 90 million active users would mean a significant loss of users—a real warning sign of a serious crisis.

I apologize if my answer isn't satisfactory to you. I genuinely believe that the figure for the PS6's success is a moving target and that the number will exceed 50 million.

I was thinking there was no way it can sell under 20M, but then I remembered that the Wii U happened. And that was right after the Wii success too. So it's definitely possible to see the big 2 hitting those numbers.

Active users do not mean much when a bunch of them are Fortnite players not spending a dime. That is why Sony was so eager to make people transition from PS4 to PS5. People on older generations simply spend less money than on new ones on average. People on older generations also simply are less on PS Plus monthly subscriptions.

The PS6 having Xbox One numbers, 30 million less than the PS3, is a failure. You don't have to be a WiiU/Vita disaster to fail. The Xbox One failed. The PS6 might fail. 

In general it is too early to speak with any confidence, what I will say though is that if the system is priced unlike any prior console, it's sales are unlikely the follow the trajectory of any other console. We've seen what the price hike has done to PS5 sales, we saw what a $600 price tag done to PS3 sales.

I don't believe a $800+ system will be able to sell more than 50m without reaching a $600 price tag relatively early in its life. We'll have to see the pricetag and business models sony approaches. There are a lot of eager gamers and people with very high disposable income who could blindly buy a $1000 system... But by a lot I mean a few dozen million. The majority of the console market is just casual & average income consumers and I don't think they'd budge and if they don't budge, developers won't either. PS5 will continue getting games forever and they will look and play solid to the casual eye who can't see the difference in RT without direct comparison, or doesn't fuss over 30fps vs 60fps etc

Sony already hit those numbers with the Vita too.

Personally though I feel like Xbox One/3DS numbers are more likely if it does end up costing a fortune due to the memory crunch.

Xbox One certainly seems like what is turning up to be. 

Good points. Don't forget:  PS2 (affordable) 160M -> PS3 (expensive) 87M

So what's about half of PS5 sales going to be? Around XB1 numbers? 60M give or take?

About 2/3rds of them don't even bother to claim their free Plus games, LOL. Only the odd time if it's something of interest, so usually something mainstream like COD. A few times I had to let them know late in the month otherwise they would've likely missed out on those.

Most of them buy digitally. Of the minority of the physical games they had, most were gifts from me. Some thanked me but asked me to refrain in the future because they didn't want the inconvenience of physical. "Alright, suit yourselves'.

They're mostly casuals. A few you might consider semi hardcore, but still lean closer to casual. They're not as worried about the future as a legit (hardcore) gamer, though they did take into account the leaks and rumors of XB Helix and PS6. Since it looks like both will be far too expensive, for far too long, they decided XBSS made the most sense for the foreseeable future. I don't necessarily disagree if you don't want to pay PS5 prices, and who knows how much worse based on what else is going on with SNY. Doesn't seem like PS6 will end up much different than XB Helix.

Two more of them ordered an XBSS earlier this week but haven't received them yet. Times running out for the rest who will likely follow.

The PS3 launch price of $600 would be $993 today adjusted for inflation. So, the price would not be as unprecedented as it might appear.

The Bill of materials for the PS6 was rumoured, by a reliable source, to be around $800 before the price increases. That means it should get back to that in a few years, and potentially lower. By late 2028 it is not out of the question for a slightly subsidised $800 launch price, and maybe even $700 with heavy subsidisation(all digital makes this more attractive). By the end of the gen it could be around $500 if we manage to go a significant period of time without high inflation/component demand shocks/absurd tariffs. 

Classic curl move. He lives off the ignore feature. Only wants to see posts that dont get him riled up. And I say this as someone who vehemently disagrees with every one of your posts here (except this one) but im not going to just hit ignore just so the evil mean posts go away. Lol. Fragile.