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JoaoGrossi 3 days ago
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Manlytears said:
Otter said:

They're all in trouble but this is about PS6 sales predictions. This thread/discussion isn't about Sonys yearly revenue, although even that depends on attracting new users in the long term.

What we'll agree on is that a generation is a long time and things can change throughout it including prices going way down... Gaming offerings becoming viral etc. We will have to see. However there is always the possible that the PS6 carries a bad image/reputation with it and Sonys opts to move on more swiftly if cost efficient tech/market conditions makes presenting a rebranded PS7 more attractive in 2033 etc. 

But specific to the OP and their prediction of sub 50m..
What do you consider "good numbers" in the end?

I don't think that will be the case; Sony doesn't usually operate that way. There is too much R&D investment to cut the console's lifespan short so soon. It's possible, but unlikely.

It's too early to talk numbers—the console hasn't even been officially announced or revealed yet!!! But based on historical figures and the performance of previous PlayStation consoles, I believe exceeding 50 million units by the end of the generation is a VERY safe bet.

As for what I consider a good number? Personally... it depends on the total number of active users in the ecosystem.

If there are 30 million active users across PS5, PS4, and a portable PS6, then 60 million PS6 units sold would be a good figure.

If there are 10 million active users across PS5, PS4, and a portable PS6, then 80 million becomes the target for PS6 success.

I’d say 90 million active PSN users is the minimum figure to be considered "good." The PS6 sales figure needs to be high enough to ensure that, and I believe it will be. Anything less than 90 million active users would mean a significant loss of users—a real warning sign of a serious crisis.

I apologize if my answer isn't satisfactory to you. I genuinely believe that the figure for the PS6's success is a moving target and that the number will exceed 50 million.

Active users do not mean much when a bunch of them are Fortnite players not spending a dime. That is why Sony was so eager to make people transition from PS4 to PS5. People on older generations simply spend less money than on new ones on average. People on older generations also simply are less on PS Plus monthly subscriptions.

The PS6 having Xbox One numbers, 30 million less than the PS3, is a failure. You don't have to be a WiiU/Vita disaster to fail. The Xbox One failed. The PS6 might fail.