Otter said:
Manlytears said:
I don't think that will be the case; Sony doesn't usually operate that way. There is too much R&D investment to cut the console's lifespan short so soon. It's possible, but unlikely. It's too early to talk numbers—the console hasn't even been officially announced or revealed yet!!! But based on historical figures and the performance of previous PlayStation consoles, I believe exceeding 50 million units by the end of the generation is a VERY safe bet. As for what I consider a good number? Personally... it depends on the total number of active users in the ecosystem. If there are 30 million active users across PS5, PS4, and a portable PS6, then 60 million PS6 units sold would be a good figure. If there are 10 million active users across PS5, PS4, and a portable PS6, then 80 million becomes the target for PS6 success. I’d say 90 million active PSN users is the minimum figure to be considered "good." The PS6 sales figure needs to be high enough to ensure that, and I believe it will be. Anything less than 90 million active users would mean a significant loss of users—a real warning sign of a serious crisis. I apologize if my answer isn't satisfactory to you. I genuinely believe that the figure for the PS6's success is a moving target and that the number will exceed 50 million. |
In general it is too early to speak with any confidence, what I will say though is that if the system is priced unlike any prior console, it's sales are unlikely the follow the trajectory of any other console. We've seen what the price hike has done to PS5 sales, we saw what a $600 price tag done to PS3 sales.
I don't believe a $800+ system will be able to sell more than 50m without reaching a $600 price tag relatively early in its life. We'll have to see the pricetag and business models sony approaches. There are a lot of eager gamers and people with very high disposable income who could blindly buy a $1000 system... But by a lot I mean a few dozen million. The majority of the console market is just casual & average income consumers and I don't think they'd budge and if they don't budge, developers won't either. PS5 will continue getting games forever and they will look and play solid to the casual eye who can't see the difference in RT without direct comparison, or doesn't fuss over 30fps vs 60fps etc |
The PS3 launch price of $600 would be $993 today adjusted for inflation. So, the price would not be as unprecedented as it might appear.
The Bill of materials for the PS6 was rumoured, by a reliable source, to be around $800 before the price increases. That means it should get back to that in a few years, and potentially lower. By late 2028 it is not out of the question for a slightly subsidised $800 launch price, and maybe even $700 with heavy subsidisation(all digital makes this more attractive). By the end of the gen it could be around $500 if we manage to go a significant period of time without high inflation/component demand shocks/absurd tariffs.
