Where is the PS6 problem?

Allow me to say a few:

1. A very expensive price tag.

2. An enormous cross gen cicle ahead. We are getting the Megaman game for the PS4 next year. Devs won't stop making games for the current gent for the next 6 years.

3. Considering that we are getting a Naughty Dog game, a Santa Monica game and a Imsomniac game in the next 2 years for the PS5, there will probably be very few heavy exclusives in the first few years for the PS6.

4. It is much easier now to have a PC on your living room than 6 years ago.

5. The Switch 2 has a much bigger third party presence than the Switch had and it accepts physical media. The whole different niche argument falls apart when the third party games are there.

6. A lot of people are confortable staying in the PS5.

7. No more exclusivity with From Software, Capcom and Square Enix.

8. A probable blow back like Xbox received in 2013 due to a similar situation, which is killing the reselling market. 

And I will deny your last sentence. Both Valve and Nintendo were able to get some significant edges over Sony in this gen. Xbox is not the main threat anymore. The PS6 will very likely be outsold by the Switch 2 in the year of GTA 6, which would seem unthinkable 3 years ago. Remember that the PS4 outsold the Switch for the first 2 years of the hybrid and the PS5 is already getting significantly outsold by Nintendo's console. Steam now makes more money for some devs than all the consoles combined.

Now tell me a good reason why would someone with a PS5 buy a PS6 until 2030? Maybe a Horizon game? Due to OD, Physint is going to take more than that. A new Astro Bot? Great game, but not enough appeal.

Sony is going to be taken for a ride.

You didn't actually say what people would switch to though if people don't like Playstation. There's only two other options. Xbox is in dire straits, in serious trouble and are in no position bash heads against Sony. Nintendo has the Switch 2, but i don't think even Nintendo aims for it to compete with PS5 userbase. PC is getting expensive. Where else do people go?  

It's not even about over or under estimating though. It's just, the financials and their current market position. I know Brands can fall, but no discs making the entire Playstation brand fall into failure? It simply won't happen unless people have an alternative to Switch to. PC's are very different to consoles and the Casuals are not going going to want to boot up a PC just to play their games because they don't like that Sony doesn't have discs, let's be real here. 

I like the Switch 2 a lot, but claiming Requiem is a 60fps game on it is seriously disingenuous. It has very extreme frame drops.  

Curl seriously. This is the 6th-7th time you have done this to me. You just follow me around in threads and tell people to ignore me/my posts. I've been on VGChartz for almost 20 years and I've never seen someone do that on here before. Get a life brother. 

^ You're on the ignore list btw, so you're wasting your time, your posts are all just blank.

Ok, so Requiem has frame drops. Doesnt really change the fact that many other games run great in 60fps on Switch 2.

Then why are you still telling people not to respond to my posts if you can't even see what they are? That's even crazier. I like that this is showing everyone on here the person you really are. 

Switch 2 isn't a threat to the PS6. The threat is that most of PS5's 100m userbase just remain content with that PS5 experience and don't bother to upgrade. Price is issue No.1, convincing people of a generational leap is issue No.2

I was just saying I don't think people are going to abandon the Playstation 5, a console that plays games at a mostly locked 60, for a console that can't play those same games at a mostly locked 60. Requiem is a good example of that. I'm not bashing Switch 2, it's just hard to get people to flee their preferred platform in mass unless it's something extremely bad. Like Xbox One bricking itself after 24 hours if it's not connected to internet bad. 

I dont think that many will migrate to the Switch 2 either. I think a good amount of physical game collectors will get a Switch 2 in addition to their PS5. 

1. Price is a problem for all players. Nintendo, PC, Playstation, Xbox... all are living the very same AI price hell! Things are likely much worse for PC and Xbox; everything indicates they will be more expensive than the PlayStation 6.

2. Crossgen is not a problem for Playstation. Money coming from PS5 or PS6 makes no difference.

3. Again, Crossgen is not a problem. PS6 isn't out, it's for 2027-28, and then we have a 7-8 year generation cycle. 1-2 years for launch, followed by 7-8 years of generation (average generation time for consoles like PS4-Switch, etc.).

We're talking about at least 8 years and possibly 10 years in the future. It’s not a 100-meter dash; it’s a marathon where users will eventually, and gradually, want to upgrade to the best available option (likely a PS6).

PS6 will have very slow sales, but it will manage to do good numbers in the end.

Sony just needs to keep making memorable exclusive games. You know, continue being the console with the most award-winning and critically acclaimed lineup of exclusives, just like the last 15 years...

4. It’s also much more expensive—vastly more expensive!

The convenience of plugging a console into the wall and getting automatic updates is essential for most users.

Building a PC has become easier (anyone can buy a pre-built machine), but maintaining one remains complex. Updating drivers, cleaning the hardware, replacing faulty components, dealing with poorly optimized games... PC gaming isn't for everyone.

Either you learn how to do it, or you have to spend money having someone else do it for you.

5. Third-party games are there? I just see late ports and the fact that GTA VI, biggest game of the decade, is not on Switch 2. Bring this up again when there is release parity and the decade's biggest releases arrive on Switch 2.

6. Sony is the most comfortable with this. PS5 money is worth just as much as PS6 money. Besides, there’s the marathon aspect I already mentioned... 8 to 10 years— most, eventually, willl do upgrades...

7. Do you have a crystal ball?? We truly can't talk about this stuff, no one knows about future games exclusivity...

8. I should just ignore this, but... Playstation situation doesn't come close to the 2013 Xbox fiasco, not by miles!!

Valve, sadly, is in another world. The world of people that can deal with pc gaming. It would be the best world, But unfortunately, the barrier is very high for the majority.

Nintendo doesn't have enough third-party support. Deal with it.

Playstation going for a ride? Maybe... But ATM, they’ve been having their most profitable years, and I don’t see any compelling arguments for a drastic change in that scenario. The PS5 will keep raking in the cash, and the PS6—and possibly a portable PS6—has a great chance of continuing that trend.

They're all in trouble but this is about PS6 sales predictions. This thread/discussion isn't about Sonys yearly revenue, although even that depends on attracting new users in the long term.

What we'll agree on is that a generation is a long time and things can change throughout it including prices going way down... Gaming offerings becoming viral etc. We will have to see. However there is always the possible that the PS6 carries a bad image/reputation with it and Sonys opts to move on more swiftly if cost efficient tech/market conditions makes presenting a rebranded PS7 more attractive in 2033 etc. 

But specific to the OP and their prediction of sub 50m..
What do you consider "good numbers" in the end?