Do you have altered by any extent your expectations about NS sales through the year? It's still above 20k,of course thanks to an out of nowhere restock of the original form.
Time will tell.

My expectations were, and still are between 600k and 1M. I didn't put stronger competitor in it's comparison, because there isn't such, with pace similar to the DS (since such should be the Switch 1's pace too). But from a few weeks with 20k+ sales I can't make nothing yet. I expect to gradually drop over the year, with it's lowest point to be 8-10K by September-October. 600k to 1M seems reasonable range.

Such a wide range 

800k+is the average and  what probably will happen.

it needs just 15k weekly sales on average for the next 42 weeks.

1m in 9th year will be something "interstellar".